Despite above-average rainfall in much of the country during the first half of October 2026, the overall area affected by moderate to severe drought increased compared to the same period of the previous year.

According to Mexican Drought Monitor data through Oct. 15, a dry spell has impacted Mexico’s southeast and just over 35% of the country’s territory registered abnormally dry conditions (tagged as “D0”), moderate drought (D1) or severe drought (D2). A small area in northeasternmost Mexico is experiencing extreme drought (D3).

The Monitor did in fact report that recent rains helped reduce the affected areas in some “abnormally dry areas and areas with moderate to extreme drought in portions of the states of Chihuahua, Nuevo León and Tamaulipas,” particularly in Tamaulipas where the elimination of extreme drought was notable.

It attributed the above-average rainfall during the first half of October to the steady arrival of low pressure troughs and monsoon troughs. Additionally, the influence of Hurricane Simon and Hurricane Trudy in the Pacific and Tropical Storm (later Hurricane) Isaias in the Gulf of Mexico was significant.

However, the rains were “not enough to reverse the accumulated precipitation deficits from previous months in the south and southeast.”

In the state of Tabasco, 56.1% of the surface area registered moderate drought and another 19.3% is suffering from severe drought, while 35.9% of the state of Chiapas registered moderate drought and 8.4% is seeing severe drought. 

In Guerrero, 15.9% of the state experienced moderate drought and 2.1% severe drought, whereas in Oaxaca, the proportions were 17.5% and 4.8%, respectively.

The Monitor also reported below-average rainfall in the east and in specific areas of the northwest.

The data for the first half of October showed slight improvement when compared to the second half of September. September ended with 64.6% of Mexico’s territory free from drought and by Oct. 15 that figure had inched upto 64.9%.

But using year-on-year comparison, the moderate to severe drought categories — D1 to D2 —  that covered 12.7% of the national territory as of this October 15 represented an increase of 5.2 percentage points compared to the 7.5% reported on Oct. 15, 2025. The affected proportion was almost 70% higher than a year earlier, the Monitor said.

The conditions are in keeping with the projections that the El Niño phenomenon would produce increased temperatures in northern regions of the country in September and increased oceanic heat content in the Mexican Pacific between September and December.

With reports from El Economista, Gaceta UNAM and Crónica Veracruz