Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (SMN) has issued advisories for four Pacific Coast states after Tropical Storm Lorena formed early Tuesday.

The National Water Commission (Conagua) alerted states in the storm’s path after Tropical Depression Twelve-E picked up speed, increasing from 23 km/hr to 39 km/hr, and continued on its west-northwesterly path roughly parallel to the coast.

The SMN has forecast heavy rains for the states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima and Michoacán as the storm moved within 350 kilometers of Manzanillo, Colima, and Cabo Corrientes, Jalisco, to the northeast. 

Although Lorena is expected to dump considerable rain on those four states, the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) projects the probable path of the storm center to remain parallel to the coast through Thursday before it slows and veers east. 

The storm’s maximum sustained winds reached 55 km/h at 8 a.m., with gusts of up to 75 km/h, and it was within 550 km of Cabo San Lucas, a resort city on the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. 

An NHC bulletin warned that “additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Lorena could reach hurricane strength by Wednesday.” Conagua said Lorena might not reach hurricane strength until Friday.

Lorena is expected to make landfall halfway up the Baja California Peninsula late Friday night, but Conagua expects it to decrease to a tropical depression as it crosses the Gulf of California and comes ashore in Sonora.

Official coastal watches and warnings were in effect by mid-morning Tuesday. 

The SMN said the storm’s outer bands would lash the Pacific Coast, dumping from 50 to 75 mm of rain on Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima and Michoacán over the next 24 hours, with heavy rains reaching Baja California Sur by nightfall.

Lorena could be accompanied by hail and electrical charges, according to the SMN daily report, generating puddles, landslides and flooding in low-lying areas of the aforementioned states.

The SMN also advised coastal areas to expect sustained winds of 40 km and gusts up to 70 km through early Wednesday. The storm could also stir up waves exceeding 3 meters.    

Maximum amounts of 12 inches of rain are possible across portions of Baja California Sur and southwestern Sonora through Friday, adding that potentially significant flash flooding is a possibility.

Lorena is the 12th tropical storm to form during the current hurricane season, with 16 to 20 expected in the Pacific and 13 to 17 in the Atlantic.

With reports from Proceso, N+ and El Informador