Government revenues have exceeded Finance Ministry expectations this year, rising 4.4% through November even as import taxes began to decline late in the year.
This marks the fifth consecutive year that Mexico has seen growth in revenues during the January-November period.
In a Dec. 30 press release, Mexico’s Finance Ministry (SHCP) reported that, during the first 11 months of 2025, revenues exceeded projections by 117 billion pesos (US $6.5 billion). The report indicated that the increase was driven by “the strength of non-oil revenues.”
- Tax revenues exceeded the 99 billion-peso estimate in the budget (US $5.5 billion), an increase of 4.6% in real terms, the result of a broadening of the tax base, a crackdown on smuggling and the incorporation of digital tools in administrative and auditing processes.
- Income tax revenues increased by 5.4%, a result of formal employment growth and higher wages.
- Collection of Value Added Tax (VAT) saw year-on-year growth of 1.3%, exceeding estimates by 42 billion pesos (US $2.3 billion).
- Import tax revenues experienced annual growth of 19% in real terms, surpassing projections by 16 billion pesos (US $890 million).
Although the government accumulated 155 billion pesos (US $8.6 billion) in import taxes during the first 11 months of the year, collection slowed down the stretch, and markedly so in November.
Bloomberg News reported that official data shows that import revenues declined for the first time in two years in August 2025, falling 0.8% year-on-year in real terms.
In September, such revenues rose, registering a real annual increase of 17.2%, but in October that effect was reversed and revenue grew less, at a real annual increase of 6.4%.
The reversal continued into November, as import taxes fell 1.1% year-on-year in real terms.
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The SHCP attributed this slowdown to trade adjustments ahead of new tariffs that Mexico will impose on countries with which it does not have trade agreements.
On the other side of the ledger, public spending grew by 91.7%, compared to what was scheduled for the year.
The SHCP also reported that the International Monetary Fund renewed its Flexible Credit Line for Mexico for two years, and reaffirmed its confidence in the strength of the macroeconomic fundamentals as well as the sustainable trajectory of public debt, which has risen steadily under President Claudia Sheinbaum.
Since Sheinbaum took office on Oct. 1, 2024, and through November of this year, Mexico’s debt balance went from 16.8 trillion pesos (US $934 billion) to 18.26 trillion pesos (US $1 trillion).
At the same time, public and private investment as a percentage of GDP fell to its lowest level in four years, according to the think tank México cómo vamos.
With reports from IMER Noticias, Bloomberg News and México como vamos
