The Mexican economy grew 1.4% on a quarter-over-quarter basis between April and June and 1.9% in annual terms, according to revised data published by the national statistics agency INEGI on Monday.
Both growth rates were slightly lower than those reported by INEGI in preliminary data published July 30.
World Cup spending fuels Mexico’s second-quarter economic rebound
However, they still represent a significant improvement from the 0.3% sequential contraction and modest annual growth the Mexican economy registered in the first quarter of 2026. The 1.4% quarter-over-quarter growth between April and June was the best second-quarter result since 2021.
Analysts partially attributed the solid performance in the second quarter to spending related to the FIFA men’s World Cup, which Mexico co-hosted with the United States and Canada in June and July.
INEGI also reported on Monday that the Mexican economy grew 1.2% annually in the first six months of 2026.
Primary sector records strongest Q2 growth
INEGI’s final data shows that Mexico’s primary sector — which includes economic activities related to agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting — expanded 2.4% in the second quarter compared to the first three months of the year. In annual terms, the primary sector grew 4.8%.
The secondary and tertiary sectors also grew in sequential and annual terms in the second quarter, but their expansions were more modest.
The secondary sector — which includes manufacturing, construction and mining as well as electricity, gas and water-related activities — grew 1.6% on a quarter-over-quarter basis and 0.9% annually.
The tertiary, or services, sector grew 1.4% compared to the first quarter of 2026 and 2.3% in annual terms.
INEGI reports a month-over-month contraction in June — and an uptick in inflation
INEGI on Monday also published final economic growth data for June and inflation data for the first half of August.
Mexico’s economy contracted 0.1% in June compared to May and grew 1.7% in annual terms. It was the second consecutive month-over-month decline after a 0.4% contraction in May. The construction sector was a standout performer in June, growing 3% compared to May and 4.2% in annual terms.
INEGI data also showed that Mexico’s annual headline inflation rate rose to 3.26% in the first 15 days of August, up from 3.12% across July.
In the first half of August, Mexico’s annual core inflation rate, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was 3.93%, down slightly from a 3.95% reading in July.
The outlook for the Mexican economy
Gabriela Siller, director of economic analysis at Banco Base, wrote on X on Monday that her estimate, based on the latest GDP data and the growth of the construction sector in June, was that the Mexican economy will grow 1.4% in 2026.
“Weakness in the consumption of domestic goods and services persists, so it’s still probable that a [sequential] contraction will be recorded in the third quarter,” she wrote.
The Bank of Mexico is forecasting a 1.1% economic expansion this year, while the International Monetary Fund anticipates that the Mexican economy will grow 1.2%. The federal Finance Ministry is more optimistic, forecasting economic growth in the range of 1.8%-2.8% in 2026.
With reports from El Economista
