Although the Mexican economy is expected to have grown by 0.1% annually in July, it fell by 0.1% on a month-over-month basis, according to preliminary data published by the national statistics agency INEGI on Tuesday.
The figures come from INEGI’s Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE), which offers early estimates of the results of the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE).
If the prediction is confirmed, the Mexican economy will experience its second contraction of the year, after a month-on-month decrease of 0.2% in March.
In the second quarter, Mexico’s economy grew by an estimated 0.7% on a quarterly basis and 1.2% annually. However, the economy is now expected to start the second half of 2025 in negative territory after overcoming a technical recession in the first half of the year.
After March’s month-over-month contraction of 0.2%, April posted marginal growth of 0.5% followed by 0% growth in May and June.
“Today’s results reflect a slight moderation in the performance of the main groups of economic activities (secondary and tertiary), with particular emphasis on the performance of secondary activities, as they remain in negative territory in their annual comparison,” the Mexican financial group Monex said in an analysis.
A cloudy economic forecast? Mexico shows 0% monthly growth in June
The industrial sector, a secondary economic activity, experienced a monthly contraction of 0.1%, as well as an annual decline of 1%, according to the INEGI estimates.
Mexico’s Finance Ministry has nevertheless decided to maintain its existing growth estimate range of between 1.5% and 2.3% heading into the 2026 Economic Package, which it must deliver no later than September 8.
Behind the economic growth data
Independent economic growth estimates vary, with the OECD predicting a GDP growth for Mexico of 0.4% in 2025, and Citi forecasting 0.3% growth.
The GDP outlook for Mexico has been revised upward, from 0.1% to 0.4%, the national president of the IMEF, Gabriela Gutiérrez, said on a conference call with the newspaper El Economista.
Víctor Manuel Herrera, the president of the National Committee for Economic Studies of the Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF), said that one factor contributing to the slight upward tick in the growth outlook was the postponement of United States tariffs on Mexican goods, which were expected to come into force on August 1.
“The announcements have been to implement the new tariffs, then cancel them, then postpone them, and in the end, there isn’t much change, with a few exceptions,” said Gutiérrez. “What this has done is interrupt export flows and then reactivate them.”
With reports from El Economista and Debat
