President Claudia Sheinbaum has said on repeated occasions that she is confident she will have a good relationship with Donald Trump after the U.S. president-elect returns to the White House, but Mexicans are split over whether that will actually be the case.
That was among the findings of a poll conducted for the newspaper El Universal earlier this month. The polling company Buendía & Márquez interviewed 1,000 Mexicans and the results of the poll were published by El Universal on Tuesday.
🇲🇽🤔 Casi la mitad de mexicanos ven una relación complicada entre Sheinbaum y Trump, según encuesta de Buendía & Márquez. ¿Tú qué opinas? 🌎💬https://t.co/2yHETK787L
— EL UNIVERSAL Qro (@universalqro) January 15, 2025
Just over four in 10 respondents — 43% — predicted that Sheinbaum will have a “good” relationship with Trump, while an additional 3% anticipated a “very good” relationship between the two presidents.
Thus, 46% of those polled believe that Mexico’s first female president will get on well with Trump, who, next Monday, will become the oldest person to be inaugurated as U.S. president.
A slightly lower 44% of poll respondents predicted that Sheinbaum will have a “bad” (32%) or “very bad” (12%) relationship with Trump.
Of the remaining 10% of those polled, 5% predicted that the relationship between the two leaders will be “neither good nor bad” while the other 5% didn’t respond.
Sheinbaum has spoken to Trump twice by telephone since Trump won the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5. After their second call, Sheinbaum rejected Trump’s assertion that she had “effectively” agreed to close the Mexico-U.S. border.
She has also responded forcefully to Trump on other occasions, including when he pledged to impose a 25% tariff on all Mexican exports on his first day in office.
Trump is well-known in Mexico but not well-liked
Almost nine in 10 poll respondents — 88% — said they knew of Trump compared to just 67% who said the same about current United States President Joe Biden.
Two-thirds of those polled — 66% — said they had a “very bad” opinion of Trump, who has made various derogatory remarks about Mexico and Mexicans over the years. Just 13% said they had a “very good” opinion of the former and future president.
Large majority of Mexicans (unsurprisingly) opposed to Trump’s deportation and tariff plans
Almost nine in ten respondents — 89% — said they were not in favor of the deportation of Mexicans from the United States. Trump has pledged to carry out “the largest deportation operation in American history,” leaving some 5 million undocumented Mexicans susceptible to expulsion from the U.S.
Just over eight in 10 of those polled — 82% — said they were against United States tariffs on Mexican exports, while 73% expressed opposition to the cancelation of the USMCA free trade pact, which is up for review in 2026.
Trump has pledged to renegotiate the trade agreement, in part to insert what he called “strong new protections against transshipment, so that China and other countries cannot smuggle their products and auto parts into the United States tax free through Mexico to the detriment of our workers and our supply chains.”
Exactly seven in 10 poll respondents expressed support for the signing of a security agreement between Mexico, the United States and Canada.
A security agreement between Mexico and the United States, the Bicentennial Framework, took effect in late 2021, but that pact doesn’t include Canada.
Buendía & Márquez also asked poll respondents whether they agreed or disagreed with an increase in “foreign migrant” numbers in Mexico. Almost seven in 10 — 69% — said they were against an increase while 28% indicated they would like to see more foreigners in Mexico.
Most Mexicans see mass deportations and tariffs as ‘very’ or ‘somewhat’ probable
Almost two-thirds of those polled — 64% — said that deportations of Mexicans from the United States were either “very probable” (34%) or “somewhat probable” (30%) during the next 12 months.
Sixty-four percent of respondents also indicated that they expected Trump to follow through with his threat to impose tariffs on Mexican exports to the United States. One-third — 33% — said tariffs were “somewhat probable” while 31% said they were “very probable.”
Meanwhile, a majority of those polled — 54% — said that the cancelation of the USMCA was either “not very likely” or “not at all likely.”
Almost three-quarters of respondents — 73% — said it was “very probable” or “somewhat probable” that foreign migrant numbers will increase in Mexico during the next 12 months, while 62% said it was “very probable” or “somewhat probable” that Mexico, the United States and Canada will sign a joint security agreement within the same period of time.
With reports from El Universal
She’s very smart…much smarter than trump. She’s a tough, intelligent woman. She’s dealt with many ridiculous men who think they’re better than her. She knows how to deal with them. I trust she’ll be just fine.
I visit Mexico frequently and have many friends in business there who are struggling since the Biden Administration. All have told me that they cannot wait until Trump takes office. As there businesses are down as much as 30% to 40%
I have the exact opposite experience Uncle, and I live down here half the year.
Mexican businesses who claim to be suffering because of Biden’s policies are misinformed. The peso has lost at least 10% because of the former Mexican President Lopez Obrador. Worldwide inflation is likely responsible for another 10%. The fact that these businesses don’t know that probably means their own incompetence is the cause of at least another 10%. Looking forward to a Trump administration is like looking forward to a financial enema. If they think things are bad now, just wait for the Trump tariffs to kick in.