Wednesday, November 30, 2022

Sheinbaum has slight advantage over Ebrard for 2024 election

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Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum is preferred over Foreign Affairs Minister Marcelo Ebrard as the ruling Morena party candidate for the 2024 presidential election, a new poll found.

A national survey conducted by the polling firm Buendía & Márquez for the El Universal newspaper asked 1,000 people to nominate their preferred Morena candidate.

Sheinbaum, a close ally of President López Obrador, was chosen by 31% of respondents, just ahead of Ebrard, who was selected by 29%.

Those polled were given two other options as well: Morena Senate leader Ricardo Monreal and Interior Minister Adán Augusto López. The former was the preferred candidate of 11% of the respondents while the latter was the favorite of 7%.

Interior Minister Adán Augusto López, another possible Morena candidate, trails behind Sheinbaum and Ebrard in popularity.
Interior Minister Adán Augusto López, another possible Morena candidate, trails behind Sheinbaum and Ebrard in popularity.

Ebrard beat Sheinbaum on name recognition, with 68% of respondents saying that they had heard of the foreign minister, who served as Mexico City mayor between 2006 and 2012. Only 53% had heard of the mayor, who was environment minister when López Obrador was Mexico City mayor before going on to become the top official in Tlalpan, a southern borough of the capital.

Almost four in 10 respondents – 36% – said they had a good opinion of Ebrard compared to 33% who said the same about Sheinbaum. The foreign minister also attracted a higher number of negative opinions – 21% – giving him a net positive/negative ratio of +15. Sheinbaum’s ratio was slightly higher at +20 as only 13% of those polled spoke ill of her.

The pollsters also asked respondents to nominate their preferred National Action Party (PAN), Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and Citizens Movement (MC) party candidates for 2024.

Margarita Zavala, a federal deputy and wife of former president Felipe Calderón, came out on top in the PAN contest with 32% support, while Santiago Creel, a deputy and former interior minister, ranked second with 15%.

In the PRI contest, federal senator and former Tlaxcala governor Beatriz Paredes was the favored candidate among 21% of those polled, five points ahead of Alfredo del Mazo, the current governor of México state.

Monterrey Mayor Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas, son of assassinated presidential candidate Luis Donaldo Colosio Murrieta, convincingly beat Jalisco Governor Enrique Alfaro and Nuevo León Governor Samuel García as the preferred MC presidential candidate.

Just over four in 10 respondents – 41% – said they would support a Morena candidate if the presidential election was held on the day they were polled, while PAN and PRI both received 14% support. Those two opposition parties, and the Democratic Revolution Party, will likely field a common candidate at the 2024 election, but the three together only attracted combined support of 30% among poll respondents. The figure for Morena and its allies was a much healthier 49%.

The poll also pitted the possible candidates against each other in mock races. Sheinbaum easily prevailed in the two in which she was the Morena candidate, while Ebrard was a convincing winner in his confected contests.

The 2024 presidential election will be held on June 2, 2024, with the winner to be sworn in four months later.

With reports from El Universal 

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