Western and southern Mexico are on alert for intense storms on Thursday, and steady rainfall is expected throughout the weekend, according to weather service Meteored.
The National Meteorological Service (SMN) is forecasting intense rains for Chiapas, and very strong, heavy rains are expected in 11 other states across Mexico as well.
Thursday’s predicted storms are being driven by Tropical Wave No. 23, which is approaching Mexico’s Pacific coast.
That system is expected to arrive over Michoacán and Colima on Friday just as Tropical Wave No. 24 moves across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec from the Yucatán Peninsula—where it is expected to interact with the Maya Trough (an elongated low-pressure system that frequently occurs over the Peninsula).
Another trough extending from the northern mesa to central Mexico, in combination with humid air from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico, is likely to produce electrical storms, high winds and occasional hail storms across the northern half of the country.
Chiapas is expected to receive torrential rains (75-150 mm) on Thursday, while Campeche, Colima, Guerrero, Jalisco, Michoacán, Oaxaca, Puebla, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, Veracruz and Yucatán should see 50-75 mm of precipitation. The SMN says this system, driven by Tropical Wave No. 23, will likely feature electrical storms.
Meteored reported that the possible development of a Central American Gyre (CAG), a sprawling low-pressure system over Central America, could make this weekend — and coming weeks — particularly tempestuous for Mexico.
The CAG is a large-scale weather pattern that often leads to the development of tropical storms and hurricanes. It typically forms in late spring or early fall and can have far-reaching impacts, especially in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, particularly if water temperatures and upper-level winds are conducive for the development of tropical disturbances.
Meteored is reporting that just such conditions exist now as tropical humidity and high temperatures come up against cold fronts sweeping down from the north. Add in the CAG and a tropical cyclone or two and intense storms could be in the offing.
The SMN also issued an alert about two low-pressure areas that could generate tropical cyclones over the Atlantic in the coming days, while a potential low-pressure system has been identified in the western Caribbean Sea.
The two systems over the Atlantic have less than a 30% chance of developing into tropical cyclones, but the system in the Caribbean has a 40% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next seven days as it approaches the Yucatán Peninsula.
Another low-pressure area appears to be forming in the Pacific south of the Baja California Peninsula. On Thursday morning, the SMN reported that the system has a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next seven days.
