Tropical Storm Vance continues to move northward off the coast of western Mexico and is projected to turn toward the coast of Sinaloa, where it could make landfall by the end of this week.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center forecasts that Vance will lose strength and become a post-tropical remnant low on Thursday, potentially approaching Sinaloa between Thursday and Friday. Landfall as a tropical storm is unlikely.
According to the National Meteorological Service, as of 12 p.m. today, Vance was located approximately 365 kilometers west-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Jalisco, and 390 kilometers west-southwest of Punta Mita, Nayarit. The storm had sustained winds of 65 kilometers per hour, with gusts reaching up to 85 kilometers per hour and was heading north at a speed of 17 kilometers per hour.
A las 12:00h, la #TormentaTropical #Vance se localiza a 365 km al oeste-suroeste de Cabo Corrientes, #Jalisco, con vientos máximos sostenidos de 65 km/h y rachas de 85 km/h. Se desplaza hacia el nor-noroeste a 17 km/h.
⚠️ Para las próximas 24 horas se pronostican lluvias muy fuertes con puntuales intensas (75 a 150 mm) en Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, Nayarit, Jalisco y Durango. En Colima, lluvias puntuales fuertes (25 a 50 mm).
🌬️ En la costa de Jalisco se esperan vientos de 30 a 40 km/h con rachas de 50 a 70 km/h y 🌊 oleaje de 2.5 a 3.5 metros. En las costas de Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, Nayarit y Colima, oleaje de 1.5 a 2.5 metros.
📲 Consulta solo fuentes oficiales: @conagua_clima y @CNPC_MX.
— Coordinación Nacional de Protección Civil (@CNPC_MX) October 28, 2026
Vance is expected to cause heavy rain across Mexico’s western states.
On Wednesday, rainfall totals of 75 to 150 millimeters are expected in central and southern Sinaloa, Nayarit, Durango, the southern tip of Baja California Sur and the coast of Jalisco.
The coastlines of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, Nayarit and Colima could get hit with sustained winds of 20 to 30 kilometers per hour with gusts of 40 to 60 kilometers per hour and waves of 1.5 to 2.5 meters, while Jalisco could see waves of up to 3.5 meters.
In Baja California Sur, the Public Education Ministry (SEP) suspended all school activities for Wednesday in San José del Cabo and Cabo San Lucas. This suspension applies to all public and private educational institutions at every level.
Given the potential for rivers and streams to swell, authorities warned residents in affected states to avoid crossing watercourses or flooded areas, stay alert to weather advisories and follow the instructions provided by Civil Protection authorities.
With reports from López Dóriga
