The coronavirus pandemic is currently at its peak in Mexico, according to a group of scientists at the National Autonomous University (UNAM) who used two epidemiological models to predict the development of the outbreak.

The SIR model – which considers the number of people susceptible to infection, the number of people already infected and the number of people who have recovered from Covid-19 – shows that the highest number of new coronavirus infections in Mexico will occur this week and next.

The SEIR model – which also considers the number of people believed to have been exposed to a contagious disease but who are not yet showing symptoms – shows the same.

The scientists used data from the federal government for both models.

“The SEIR model and the SIR model, which are different, are showing the same pattern,” said Víctor Velasco Herrera, a researcher at the UNAM Institute of Geophysics and member of the group of scientists who undertook the mathematical modeling.

“Both models predict that the highest peak of daily cases … will be reached in the third and fourth weeks of April,” he said.

Velasco added that, “given the dynamic of the pandemic,” the number of people requiring hospitalization for Covid-19 will increase and hospitals could be saturated in the coming weeks. According to the scientists’ modeling, there will be around 20,000 confirmed Covid-19 cases in Mexico at the end of May, a figure less than double the current number of confirmed cases.

The predictions of the UNAM scientists differ from those of federal health authorities who say that the peak of the pandemic will be in the first two weeks of May.

Deputy Health Minister Hugo López-Gatell said last week that the peak of transmission will be between May 8 and 10 and that the greatest pressure on the health system will come about two weeks later.

Although the UNAM scientists believe the pandemic is currently peaking, the government only declared the commencement of phase three of the outbreak – the most critical stage – on Tuesday.

In the three days since the declaration, 2,861 confirmed cases of Covid-19 were added to Mexico’s official tally, a figure that accounts for 25% of the total of 11,633.

The Health Ministry estimates that there are around eight undetected Covid-19 cases for each confirmed one, meaning that more than 100,000 people in Mexico may have been infected.

The UNAM scientists believe, however, that warm weather and sunlight have played a role in limiting the coronavirus spread in Mexico, although there is no international consensus that that is the case.

“My colleagues and I have a hypothesis: ultraviolet radiation has prevented Covid-19 from being merciless in Mexico because it’s a natural antiviral,” Velasco said.

The scientists predict that there will be a second wave of infections in the second half of 2020 and that if the government doesn’t develop a long-term strategy to limit the coronavirus spread, the situation in Mexico could worsen and become as bad as countries such as Italy, which has recorded more than 25,000 deaths.

“In the second half of the year, the rains will arrive first and then cold days. … They will create favorable conditions for this virus to move through the entire country again,” Velasco said.

“In addition, there won’t be the same quantity of ultraviolet radiation. Using artificial intelligence, we’ve made a prediction that … at the end of July, a second wave of Covid-19 will begin.”

The researcher said that the vast majority of epidemiological predictions he and his colleagues have made have proven to be accurate, adding that they would prefer to be proven wrong than to be accused of failing to see that a second wave of coronavirus infections would afflict Mexico.

Source: El Universal (sp)

More than 1,000 confirmed cases of Covid-19 were added to Mexico’s official tally for a second consecutive day on Thursday while the country is now one of just 16 around the world that have recorded more than 1,000 deaths from the disease.

The federal Health Ministry reported 1,089 new coronavirus infections on Thursday night, taking the total number of cases across Mexico to 11,633. Director of Epidemiology José Luis Alomía said that the death toll had risen to 1,069 from 970 a day earlier.

He also said that there are 7,588 suspected cases of Covid-19 in Mexico and that a total of 58,885 people have now been tested for the virus. Of the more than 11,000 confirmed cases, 4,127 are considered active, according to Health Ministry data.

With 99 new fatalities reported on Thursday, Mexico became the 16th country to record more than 1,000 deaths from the novel coronavirus that originated in Wuhan, China, late last year. Among those 16 countries, Mexico reached its first 1,000 coronavirus-related deaths in the second longest period of time after Switzerland.

Mexico recorded its first Covid-19 death on March 18 and its 1,000th on April 23 – a period of 37 days. Switzerland reached 1,000 deaths in 40 days.

The United States, meanwhile, where more than 44,000 people have now lost their lives to Covid-19, reached its first 1,000 deaths from the disease more quickly than any other nation: in just 12 days, according to data from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center.

Spain reached the unfortunate milestone in 17 days, Brazil in 18, Italy in 20, Belgium in 22, the United Kingdom and Turkey in 24, Germany in 25, the Netherlands in 26, Iran in 31, Canada, France and China in 32 and Sweden in 35.

Although Mexico was the second slowest nation in reaching 1,000 fatalities, the pace at which the death toll is increasing is quickening: one-third of the 1,069 deaths reported occurred in the past three days.

Deputy Health Minister Hugo López-Gatell predicted in an interview on Thursday that the coronavirus pandemic will claim between 6,000 and 8,000 lives in Mexico.

Mexico City has recorded the highest number of deaths to date with 268 followed by Baja California and México state, where 126 and 95 people, respectively, have lost their lives to Covid-19. Tabasco, Sinaloa, Puebla and Quintana Roo have each recorded more than 60 deaths while 42 people with Covid-19 have died in Chihuahua.

Mexico City also leads the country in terms of confirmed and active cases of Covid-19. The capital has recorded 3,157 cases since the disease was first detected in Mexico at the end of February and 1,268 of those cases are considered active.

México state has the second highest number of confirmed cases with 1,734 followed by Baja California with 1,075 and Sinaloa with 614. México state also ranks second for active cases with 642 followed by Baja California with 290 and Tabasco with 265.

The Nuevo León government reported that 165 new cases of Covid-19 were detected in Nuevo León on Thursday, a 50% increase in the total number of cases in the northern border state.

“It was a complicated day for Nuevo León; we have 165 new Covid-19 cases, the [epidemic] curve took off,” said state Health Minister Manuel de la O Cavazos.

He described the number of new cases detected as “astonishing” and said that stricter measures will be implemented in the state to limit the spread of the disease.

Almost 85% of the 165 new cases in Nuevo León were detected via testing at private laboratories, the newspaper Milenio reported.

A total of 496 cases of Covid-19 have now been confirmed in Nuevo León, according to Milenio, but federal Health Ministry data currently shows that there are only 249 confirmed cases in the state. That indicates that there is a delay between the statistics reported at the state-level and those reported by the federal government.

Baja California Governor Jaime Bonilla claimed last week that there is a lag of up to seven days between his government’s reporting of data to federal health authorities and their inclusion of it in the statistics they present nightly.

Source: Milenio (sp)