Tuesday, June 25, 2024

Poll shows Claudia Sheinbaum increases lead over Xóchitl Gálvez

Ruling party presidential candidate Claudia Sheinbaum has twice as much support among Mexican voters as her main rival Xóchitl Gálvez, according to the results of a recent poll.

Just over half — 50.2% — of 1,600 eligible voters surveyed earlier this month by the Mitofsky polling company said they would vote for Sheinbaum if the election was held “this Sunday,” while 25.3% indicated they would cast their ballots for Gálvez.

Sheinbaum, Mexico City mayor until June, will represent the ruling Morena party as well as the Labor Party (PT) and the Ecological Green Party of Mexico (PVEM) at the June 2, 2024, presidential election.

Gálvez, a federal senator who took leave to campaign ahead of next year’s election, will represent the National Action Party (PAN), the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD), which together form the opposition bloc called Strength and Heart for Mexico (formerly known as the Broad Front for Mexico).

The two women are the only confirmed candidates for the upcoming presidential election.

Nuevo León Governor Samuel García was all but confirmed to stand as the Citizens Movement (MC) party candidate, but he put an end to his 2024 presidential ambitions earlier this month amid a political crisis in the northern border state. The party has not yet endorsed a presidential candidate, but is expected to announce its choice in January.

Claudia Sheinbaum greeting people
Claudia Sheinbaum greets supporters in Chihuahua in September. (Gobierno de la Ciudad de Mexico/Cuartoscuro)

Mitofsky, which conducted its poll for the El Economista newspaper, found that 6.3% of eligible voters intended to vote for the MC’s candidate in 2024, while just over 18% of respondents didn’t nominate a preference or indicated they wouldn’t cast a ballot next June.

Among respondents who did nominate a preference, Sheinbaum had 61.4% support, well ahead of Gálvez on 30.9% and an as-yet undecided MC candidate on 7.7%.

More than four in five of those polled — 81% — said they knew who Sheinbaum was, while the figure for Gálvez was 68.5%.

Among those who know the former Mexico City mayor, 57.1% had a positive (very good or good) opinion of her, while 11.8% had a negative (very bad or bad) one. The remainder had a “regular” opinion of her, or declined to express a view.

Xóchitl Gálvez speaks at a podium
Former PAN Senator Xóchitl Gálvez left her legislative post to be a presidential candidate, but trails significantly behind Morena candidate Claudia Sheinbaum. (Jorge Ortega/Cuartoscuro.com)

Among those who know Gálvez, 36.3% had a positive opinion of her and 25.6% had a negative one. Her positive/negative “opinion balance” was +10.7%, well behind Sheinbaum on +45.3%.

Among the other questions Mitofsky put to the 1,600 people it polled was: “What is best for Mexico at this time?”

Just over half of the respondents — 51% — said that the best thing was for Morena to continue governing, while 39.8% indicated a preference for a change in Mexico’s ruling party (or parties). The remaining 9.2% didn’t offer an opinion.

The 51%/39.8% split suggests that the election could be closer than the other poll results indicate. However, there are presumably MC supporters among the respondents who would like to see a party other than Morena in power, meaning that support for the PAN, PRI and PRD support is not as strong as it might seem.

In fact, only 26.5% of poll respondents indicated they would support the PAN, PRI or PRD at the election, while 48.6% said they would vote for Morena, the PT or the PVEM.

President López Obrador, who founded Morena, won the 2018 presidential election with over 53% of the vote, more than double that of runner-up Ricardo Anaya.

The president is constitutionally barred from contesting the 2024 presidential election, and formally ceded the leadership of the “fourth transformation” political project he initiated by handing over a symbolic “baton of command” to Sheinbaum in September.

Mexico News Daily 

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