The polling company Buendía & Márquez interviewed 1,000 Mexicans about Mexico’s first-ever judicial elections, which will be held this Sunday June 1.
Here are four takeaways from the survey, conducted between May 15 and 20 for the El Universal newspaper.
Only 50% of Mexicans know the elections are taking place this Sunday
Only half of the 1,000 people surveyed knew that the elections will take place in June.
An additional 2% of those polled said they knew the elections would be held this year, but they didn’t know when.
Around four in ten of those polled (42%) didn’t know when the elections would take place. The remaining 6% cited a date other than this year.
A lack of promotion of the judicial elections and a lack of interest in them are among the possible reasons why awareness of the date they will take place is low.
A poll conducted by Buendía & Márquez around the same time last year found that 78% of Mexicans knew that the presidential election (won by Claudia Sheinbaum) would take place in June 2024.
President Sheinbaum argues that a renewal of Mexico’s judiciary via elections is necessary to rid the nation’s courts of ills such as corruption and nepotism. She has been urging citizens to get out and vote this Sunday, and is predicting a solid turnout.
Fewer than 4 in 10 Mexicans are certain they will vote
Only 37% of those polled said they were sure they will vote in the judicial elections, at which Mexicans will elect almost 900 federal judges, including nine Supreme Court justices.
An additional 24% said it was “probable” they would vote on Sunday.
Almost two in 10 people (18%) said they didn’t yet know whether they would vote or not, while 10% of respondents said it was unlikely they would vote.
An additional 10% of respondents said they were certain they wouldn’t vote.
El Universal noted that poll respondents tend to “overestimate” their own turnout at elections.
Among people who identified themselves as supporters of the ruling Morena party, 47% of respondents said they were certain they would vote. Only 31% of opposition party supporters said they were sure they would vote.
A higher turnout of Morena supporters (a majority of Mexicans, according to polls) would likely assist candidates seen as close to the ruling party, such as Supreme Court justices Lenia Batres Guadarrama and Bertha María Alcalde Luján, who are aiming to remain in their positions after the elections. Both women became Supreme Court justices during former president Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s six-year term.
A quarter of Mexicans have no interest in the judicial elections
One-quarter of those polled said they have no interest at all in the judicial elections, which are taking place as a result of the Mexican Congress’ approval last year of a controversial judicial reform put forward by López Obrador.
A similar percentage of respondents (23%) said they are only a little bit, or mildly, interested in the elections.
Just one in five respondents (21%) said they are very interested in the elections, while 29% said they are somewhat interested.
Most Mexicans disagree with ex-president’s claim that Mexico could become a tyranny
Only 29% of respondents said they had heard former president Ernesto Zedillo’s criticism of the 2024 judicial reform and the upcoming judicial elections.
As Mexico News Daily reported earlier this month, the ex-president wrote in an article for the magazine Letras Libres that “no truly democratic country elects its judges this way.”
“That’s something dictators only invent to control the judiciary,” Zedillo stated, adding that Morena is seeking to impose a “regime” to make “arbitrary and abusive” decisions according to its own political interests.
Buendía & Márquez asked the poll respondents to offer an opinion on Zedillo’s claim that “Mexico could cease being a democracy and become a tyranny.”
Six in 10 respondents said they disagreed with the assertion. Within that cohort, 37% said they very much disagreed with the claim while 23% said they somewhat disagreed with it.
Only 7% of those polled said they very much agreed with Zedillo’s assertion, while 20% said they “somewhat” agreed with it.
Among opposition party supporters, 47% said they very much or somewhat agreed with the former president’s statement, but a slightly higher percentage (49%) said they disagreed with it.
With reports from El Universal
