Goldman Sachs thinks Mexico has less than a 1% chance of winning this World Cup

June 3, 2026

El Tri jerseys at MNA — Members of Mexico's national team display their numbered jerseys in front of the Aztec Calendar, perhaps the most enduring icon of the nation they will be representing on the pitch starting next week. (Culture Ministry/ Cuartoscuro)

Though Mexico will kick off the 2026 World Cup on home turf, Goldman Sachs says the odds of a historic title run are slim.

In a new report, “The World Cup and the Economy,” the U.S. financial giant gives Mexico just a 0.8% chance of winning the expanded 48-team tournament being co-hosted by Mexico, the United States and Canada.

Ochoa 2026 — Win or lose, the 2026 tournament will be remembered as the sixth World Cup that legendary goalkeeper Guillermo “Memo” Ochoa will have appeared in for the Mexican National Team, spanning more than two decades. (Moisés Pablo / Cuartoscuro.com)

That places El Tri, the Mexican national team, 12th in the field, tied with Senegal and Ecuador and behind Norway at 1.6%.

Goldman’s model — which weighs historical performance, scoring, momentum, geography and other variables — makes Spain the favorite at about 26%, followed by France at 19% and defending World Cup champion Argentina at 14%. Brazil, the Netherlands and England sit in the next tier.

The Wall Street investment bank is more bullish on Mexico’s early path, projecting Mexico to win all three of its Group A games — including a 2-0 victory over South Africa in the June 11 opener at Estadio Azteca. It also gives head coach Javier Aguirre’s team a 95.6% chance of reaching the new, expanded round of 32, with 68% odds of making the round of 16.

Mexico’s chances then drop to 33.3% to reach the quarterfinals, 10.2% to reach the semifinals and 3.4% to reach the July 19 final in New Jersey.

A separate Opta “supercomputer” is slightly kinder, listing Mexico with a 0.9% chance of winning it all. In thousands of simulations, the computer has Mexico advancing from Group A in 87.2% of cases, and reaching the quarterfinals in 23.5%.

Then again, since the Goldman Sachs research model acts on limited information, it is more of a “fun exercise,” said Jacek Dmochowski, an engineering professor at The City College of New York.

“The information that is going into the model is a tiny sliver of all the information that’s in the possession of the millions of people that have bet into [online] prediction markets,” he said.

Goldman’s simulations point to a Spain–Argentina final, with Spain lifting the trophy.

And though Mexico’s odds of hoisting the hardware are much lower, El Tri’s 0.8% chance is at least ahead of its fellow co-hosts, with the United States at 0.5% and Canada at 0.3%.

With reports from La Jornada, Bola VIP, Opta Analyst and CNN