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Analysts foresee long-term rate cuts as inflation creeps up

MND Staff
By MND Staff
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Private sector analysts mostly agreed with recent forecasts from major public organizations in seeing modest growth for the Mexican economy over the next year. (Shutterstock)

For the fourth consecutive month, private sector analysts have raised their expectations for economic growth in Mexico this year, while reducing their year-end inflation estimates for the third straight month.

The results of the monthly survey conducted by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) indicate the central bank is expected to continue the monetary easing policy that has seen the Board of Governors lower the benchmark interest rate at 10 meetings in a row. 

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The private analysts’ predictions came out in a survey by Mexico’s central bank in which 45 prominent Mexican analyst groups and consulting firms provided their insights. (Banxico)

The 45 national and international private-sector economic analysis groups and consulting firms that participated in the survey projected Mexico’s year-end growth in GDP to be 0.53%, up from 0.46% predicted in August. The survey had estimated back in May that 2025 would end with only 0.18% growth. 

At the same time, these experts anticipate GDP growth of 1.33% for next year — slightly lower than the 1.34% they projected last month and well below the 1.75% they expected in January.

Regarding consumer prices, the survey sees inflation reaching 3.85% by year-end, a downward adjustment from the 3.95% estimated in the August survey, and below Banxico’s own 4% projection. 

However, September survey projections surpass the 3.74% mark registered during the first two weeks of September, which itself was above the 3.57% increase seen in August.

While Banxico expects inflation to converge toward its target of 3% by the third-quarter of 2026, those surveyed don’t anticipate a similar reduction. Instead, the analysts project inflation will register a variation of 3.80% in 2026 and 3.71% in 2027.

Still, the newspaper El Economista reported that “the anticipated context for inflation and growth [as represented in the survey] will lead the Board of Governors to continue its cycle of cuts.”

In its most recent meeting on Sept. 25, Banxico reduced the overnight interbank interest rate to 7.5%, its lowest level since May 2022.

The experts surveyed expect the benchmark rate to end the year at 7.14%, and anticipate the central bank will continue its rate-cutting, lowering the rate to 6.54 percent by year-end 2026.

Finally, the analysts’ perceptions of the current economic environment were not bullish: 81% believe the economy is no better than it was a year ago; 16% anticipate the business climate will worsen; 25% believe it will improve; and 59% believe it will remain the same.

With reports from El Economista and Ovaciones

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