Monday, May 5, 2025

Mexico posts strong first-quarter trade performance despite US protectionism

The value of Mexico’s exports increased in annual terms to all-time highs in March and in the first quarter of 2025 despite the United States’ imposition of tariffs on a range of Mexican goods.

Data published by the national statistics agency INEGI on Monday shows that Mexico’s exports were worth US $55.52 billion last month, a 9.6% increase compared to March 2024. The almost 10% increase in export earnings came after a 2.9% year-over-year decline in February.

INEGI data also shows that Mexico earned $149.25 billion in export revenue in the first three months of 2025, a 4% increase compared to the first quarter of last year.

The record-high March and first quarter export earnings came as United States President Donald Trump began implementing a range of “America First” protectionist policies, including 25% tariffs on Mexican steel and aluminum that took effect on March 12.

For two days in early March, 25% tariffs were in effect for all Mexican products shipped to the United States, but on March 6 Trump lifted duties on USMCA-compliant goods, a decision the U.S. president said he took “as an accommodation, and out of respect for, President [Claudia] Sheinbaum.”

“Our relationship has been a very good one, and we are working hard, together, on the Border, both in terms of stopping Illegal Aliens from entering the United States and, likewise, stopping Fentanyl,” he wrote on social media at the time.

Mexico ships more than 80% of its exports to the United States, and is the world’s top exporter to the world’s largest economy. Mexico’s total export revenue exceeded $600 billion for the first time in a calendar year in 2024, with more that $500 billion of that amount coming from goods sent to the U.S.

It remains to be seen whether Mexico can set a new export record in 2025, even as U.S. tariffs apply to various Mexican goods, including lucrative auto exports.

Mining revenue surges, but manufacturing sector is still Mexico’s export powerhouse  

The 9.6% year-over-year increase in export revenue in March can partially be attributed to the fact that Holy Week fell in March last year, while the week leading up to Easter Sunday was in April in 2025.

Nevertheless, the result is good news for the Mexican export sector at a time when there is considerable uncertainty over the future of its trading relationship with the United States.

INEGI data shows that the lion’s share (90%) of Mexico’s export revenue in March came from the shipment abroad of manufactured goods. The manufacturing sector’s export earnings increased 10% annually last month to $49.99 billion.

The export of agricultural goods brought in revenue of $2.29 billion in March, a 2.8% decrease compared to the same month of last year, while international oil sales generated earnings of $2.17 billion, a 7.1% year-over-year increase.

How is Mexico responding to the Trump tariffs?

Revenue from mining exports surged 34.1% to $1.06 billion, but only represented 1.9% of Mexico’s total export earnings last month.

In the first three months of the year, manufacturing exports generated $134 billion in revenue, a 5.5% increase compared to the first quarter of last year. Automotive exports fell 3.9% annually in the period, but non-auto manufactured products compensated for that decline by increasing 10.7%.

The value of agricultural exports fell 1.2% annually in Q1 to $6.64 billion while oil earnings plunged 21.9% to $5.81 billion.

Mining exports brought in revenue of $2.78 billion between January and March, a 22.6% increase compared to the first quarter of 2024.

Mexico records trade surplus in March and Q1 

Mexico imported goods worth $52.08 billion in March, a 7.1% increase compared to the same month last year.

Mexico thus recorded a trade surplus of $3.44 billion last month. INEGI reported that the surplus was up 72.8% compared to March 2024.

Spending on imports totaled $148.15 billion in the first quarter of the year, a 1.3% year-over-year increase.

Mexico recorded a $1.09 billion surplus in the first three months of the year, a turnaround compared to its $8.21 billion deficit in 2024.

With reports from La Jornada and El Economista

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