Preliminary data indicates that Mexico enjoyed a trade surplus of US $2.43 billion in December 2025, a performance that prevented the economy from falling into recession.

The strong December export performance marked a significant improvement from November, when the country’s surplus hit US $663 million.

A preliminary report compiled by Mexico’s national statistics agency INEGI indicated that exports grew by 7.6% in 2025 to total US $664.8 billion, and remained an engine of the economy for the second consecutive year.

Conversely, Mexican merchandise imports rose 4.4%, reaching US $664.1 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of US $771 million after four years of deficit. The preliminary data shows that both imports and exports registered record highs.

Though the US $771 million surplus in 2025 is modest, it contrasts sharply with the deficit of US $18.541 billion observed in 2024. 

The INEGI report indicated that the increase in the trade surplus between November and December 2025 stemmed from a rise in the non-oil trade surplus. This figure increased from US $2.838 billion in November to US $4.837 billion in December. 

At the same time, Mexico experienced a widening of the oil trade deficit — which increased from US $2.175 billion to US $2.408 billion during the same period.

Paradójico que en 2025 el impulso del crecimiento económico de México haya sido el sector exportador.

En 2025, las exportaciones registraron un crecimiento de 7.6%, el mayor desde 2022.
Para 2026 se estima un crecimiento de 4.5%. pic.twitter.com/Dng5poB6we

— Gabriela Siller Pagaza (@GabySillerP) January 27, 2026

Despite a year of low economic growth, the increase in exports was Mexico’s saving grace.

“Mexico did not fall into recession because exports responded well despite the environment of uncertainty and new tariffs,” Carlos Capistrán Carmona, chief economist for Mexico and Canada at Bank of America (BofA), told Forbes magazine.

The INEGI report showed that exports in December climbed by 17.2% and imports grew by 16.7% as compared to December 2024.

The value of Mexican exports in December 2025 totaled US $60.651 billion. INEGI said this growth resulted from a 19.5% increase in non-oil exports and a 32.9% decrease in oil exports. Within non-oil exports, those destined for the United States increased by 17.9% year-on-year, while those destined for the rest of the world grew by 28%.

Capistrán believes 2026 will provide more of the same.

“The engine of growth will once again be exports, which will grow by more than 5%,” he predicted.

With reports from El Economista and Forbes México