Saturday, January 18, 2025

14 Mexican states could face extreme water stress by 2030

Almost half of Mexican states will face severe water scarcity by 2030, according to projections by the Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas of the World Resources Institute (WRI).

The WRI, which identifies and assesses water-related risks globally, has identified that 14 out of the country’s 32 states are expected to experience extremely high water depletion, exceeding 80%, by 2030.

Conagua extraction from reservoir
Experts have recommended massive investment in repairing water infrastructure and in water catchment to help mitigate the crisis. (Cuartoscuro)

In assessing water availability for agricultural, domestic and industrial use, the WRI uses a rating scale from 0 to 5, with 0 representing low water stress and 5 indicating extremely high stress.

Based on those indicators, the following states are projected to have extremely high water depletion: Aguascalientes, Coahuila, Colima, Chihuahua, Durango, Guanajuato, Hidalgo, Morelos, Querétaro, San Luis Potosí, Sinaloa, Sonora and Zacatecas.

Additionally, six states — Jalisco, México state, Michoacán, Puebla, Tamaulipas and Tlaxcala — are expected to experience high water depletion, ranging between 40% and 80%, while Nuevo León could reach a medium-high level of depletion, between 20% and 40%.

Meanwhile, Campeche, Quintana Roo, Veracruz and Yucatán got a positive forecast compared to the rest of the country: they’re expected to reach a level of water exhaustion between 10 and 20%, categorized as medium-low. These states are followed by Chiapas, Guerrero, Nayarit, Oaxaca and Tabasco, which are projected to have a water exhaustion percentage below 10%. 

Baja California Sur may face the most severe drought conditions by 2030, followed by Mexico City

The WRI states that this measurement reflects the connection between total water usage and accessible renewable water sources. The organization notes that higher percentages indicate a more significant strain on local water resources and reduced availability for users.

Campeche, Quintana Roo, Veracruz and Yucatán got a positive forecast compared to the rest of the country: the southeast is expected to reach a level of water exhaustion between 10 and 20%. (Shutterstock)

“Living with this level of water stress jeopardizes people’s lives, jobs, food and energy security,” the WRI said in its report. 

According to the study, 1 billion people are expected to live with extremely high water stress worldwide by 2050. Regionally, Latin America is expected to see a 43% increase in water demand by 2050, making it the world’s second-highest demand region after sub-Saharan Africa.

By 2050, US $70 trillion in GDP, or 31% of projected global GDP in 2050, will be at risk of high water stress, up from $15 trillion in 2010. Just four countries — India, Mexico, Egypt, and Turkey — will account for over half of the exposed GDP in 2050. More than half of Mexico is experiencing drought conditions, according to the most recent data from the National Water Commission (Conagua).

Pablo Lazo, director of Urban Development and Accessibility for WRI Mexico, emphasized the urgent need to implement a change in public policies, raise social awareness about the value of water, and optimize irrigation systems in agriculture. 

In an interview with the newspaper El Economista, Lazo warned that failure to do so will have serious consequences for water supply in the short and long term.

“Currently, all that’s being discussed is extraction and distribution, but no one is talking about the need for replenishment policies,” he said. 

“What we need on the level of public policy and the regulatory framework is to be able to give operating agencies financing mechanisms so they can really modernize and invest in their infrastructure that can increase water recycling, be that through rainwater capture, gray water treatment or increased use in urban areas.”

With reports from El Informador and El Economista

7 COMMENTS

  1. As much coastline as Mexico enjoys, why isn’t there mass desalination efforts to help offset the stress of reduced water supply? How is it possible that we completely ignore this alternate can someone help me out with this? I don’t know about these matters, but I am very curious, thank you, thank you 🇨🇦🙏🇲🇽

    • Desalinization is very energy intensive and therefore expensive. Who is going to pay for it?

    • Also, the water has to somehow get from the coast to the inland areas that need it. If you build pipelines or transport by truck, again, who is going to pay for it?

    • It would be highly impractical. As Stefan has laid out but there is another wrinkle in that they have to pump water from the coast to the mountains 5-7,000 ft above sea level. Very very expensive. As the Mexican population grows rapidly this will get worse. The article makes it sound like the other states who aren’t in as much danger are not in danger. I live in Oaxaca and we are right now experiencing a massive water shortage. And Oaxaca is one of the better states.

      • If immigration into Mx is not considered, Mx´s population will not grow much. In fact it is expected to grow by about 0.5% per year by 2050, and even decline by 2100.

  2. i live in La Paz BCS and while we are a desert, we get plenty of water during the hurricane season, July-Oct. massive amounts of water run from the mountains down through the city streets carrying everything in it’s path, mostly basura. containment in the Mts is essential. there are only 2-3 small dams of poor quality. we need a mini Hoover type dam. expensive, si, but we have no other choice. with the gentrification in the last 5 yrs, property taxes could be raised on properties over a certain value so as not to affect the poorer locals. i libe in a $800,000 house and pay just $400/yr with a 30% discount discount if pait before the end of the year. that’s just crazy. i’d gladly pay more and so would all my gringo friends

  3. In the Guadalajara area seems to be the opposite. It used to be standard to have an underground cistern with a pump to fill your Tinacos. Now many are bypassing the cistern and the local water pressure is enough to fill your Tinacos.

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