It has been a good week for President Claudia Sheinbaum: on Monday she defused — at least temporarily — a tariff threat by reaching an agreement with United States President Donald Trump and on Tuesday the results of two national polls showed she is more popular than ever.
A remarkable 81% of Mexicans approve of Sheinbaum’s performance as president, an El Financiero newspaper poll found, while a larger survey conducted for the El Economista newspaper yielded a lower but still impressive 65% approval rating for Mexico’s first female president.
According to Morning Consult’s “Global Leader Approval Rating Tracker,” Sheinbaum currently has the second-highest approval rating among 24 world leaders, behind only Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India.
Both the El Financiero poll, which surveyed 900 Mexicans, and the El Economista poll, which sought the opinions of more than 41,000 people, were conducted in January, when the imposition of Trump’s proposed 25% tariff on all Mexican exports to the United States loomed as a very real possibility.
It is conceivable that Sheinbaum will get a boost to her already high approval rating as a result of her widely praised management of what was a looming trade war.
An increasingly popular president
Sheinbaum’s approval rating has trended upward since she was sworn in as president on Oct. 1.
It ticked up one point every month between November and January, according to the El Economista poll results, rising to 65% in January from 62% in October.
El Financiero detected 70% support for Sheinbaum in October, 69% in November, 78% in December and 81% in January.
The El Economista poll found that Sheinbaum is most popular in Mexico’s disadvantaged southern and southeastern states, while residents of the Bajío region and western Mexico are less supportive of the president. Still, more than half of the surveyed Bajío region and western Mexico residents said they approved of the president’s performance.
Strong support for government welfare programs
Well over four in five respondents to the El Financiero poll — 86% — praised the federal government for the “social support” it provides to citizens via welfare programs and employment schemes such as the “Youths Building the Future” apprenticeship initiative and the “Sowing Life” reforestation project.
Economic growth slowed in 2024 and is forecast to slow further this year, but 71% of those polled by El Financiero said that the government’s management of the economy was “good” or “very good.”
Sheinbaum presented Plan México in mid-January, an ambitious economic plan whose goals include making Mexico the 10th largest economy in the world, reducing reliance on imports from China and other Asian countries and creating 1.5 million new jobs.
Fight against crime found lacking
Almost seven in 10 El Financiero poll respondents — 69% — rated the government “poorly” or “very poorly” for its efforts to combat organized crime.
The government unveiled a new security strategy in October, and homicides have declined in recent months, but high levels of violence continue to plague various parts of Mexico, including Guanajuato and Sinaloa, where fighting between rival factions of the Sinaloa Cartel intensified after the arrest of alleged cartel leader Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada in the United States last July.
Almost nine in ten El Financiero poll respondents described the security situation in Sinaloa as “bad” or “very bad,” while 78% said that public insecurity was Mexico’s main problem.
Over half of the El Financiero poll respondents — 56% — evaluated the government in a negative light for its anti-corruption efforts, which include the establishment of an Anti-Corruption and Good Governance Ministry.
Sheinbaum’s relationship with Trump
Claudia Sheinbaum is the third Mexican president in office while Donald Trump occupies the White House. The first was Enrique Peña Nieto, whose government began the USMCA negotiations with the first Trump administration, while the second was Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who maintained a friendly relationship with Trump despite their ideological differences.
Sheinbaum, in reaching a deal that included a one-month pause on the 25% tariff that was scheduled to take effect on Tuesday Feb. 4, succeeded in her first major negotiation with Trump. As part of the agreement, she committed to deploying 10,000 National Guard troops to Mexico’s northern border.
The El Financiero poll was conducted in the first week of the second Trump administration, in the days after Trump outlined his intention to impose tariffs on Mexican exports on Feb. 1 and laid the groundwork for Mexican cartels to be designated as foreign terrorist organizations.
At the time, just 31% of respondents said that the Sheinbaum government was conducting the relationship with the Trump administration in a “good” or “very good” way, while 52% said the opposite. The former percentage is likely to rise this month thanks to the deal reached on Monday.
Almost four in five of those polled said they were very or somewhat concerned about Trump’s plan to deport large numbers of illegal immigrants from the United States, while almost 90% said that the U.S. president’s proposed tariff on Mexican exports — which could still be implemented — would be very harmful (69%) or somewhat harmful (19%) to Mexico and its economy.
With reports from El Financiero and El Economista
Very interesting article on President Sheinbaum.
Informative piece. May she continue to best the deeply deranged Donald Trump.
No doubt Trump bounces from wall to wall. He is creating JFK type enemy scenarios for himself.
Good for her! I know Peter Davies, number-one-Sheinbaum-loather, wrote this article through gritted teeth!
I would argue that a nation with 46.8 million people (36%) considered poor (in 2022, the most recent year I could find) with a President that increases funding for programs and schemes for the poor, will have a high approval ratings.
I am not arguing against her welfare policies, I think it’s good to increase wages and provide money to support retirement programs.
When digging down to arguably the real issues a leader must navigate, her numbers sink. After feeding the citizens, keeping them safe and feeling secure should be a top priority. Those numbers aren’t as positive.
Additionally, negotions with Trump, shouldn’t be viewed as the success they are being credited with. Trump had ZERO intention of implementing the tariffs. It was widely known that he was using the threat of tariffs as a negotiating tool. Which is why they were announced on a weekend while he was on a golf course, and weren’t to take effect until he had time to spoke with both Mexico and Canada. Canada is in a political battle for Prime Minister and they had to react or risk looking weak to the opposition. Mexico waited to announce anything, as there was no reason to spend time and money when they knew a discussion was coming on Monday. And what did Mexico “win”? The tariffs weren’t going to be implemented if Trump got what he wanted. So Mexico commits 10k troops to the border to appease Trump. For what? The empty promise to try and curb gun sales to cartel members. Currently, in the US, if a customer can provide the necessary documentation, they can purchase whatever they want. And the Republicans aren’t the Party of increased gun laws. So that’s a non-starter. President Sheinbaum avoided tariffs, that were never going to be implemented, while giving Trump what he wanted. Personal hatred of Trump doesn’t equal a Sheinbaum victory. Had she gotten the President to recind his order declaring cartels terrorist organizations, or reached an agreement on the humane treatment of Mexican nationals being returned home, or come to an agreement that Mexican families wouldn’t be separated, or fought to keep Trump from deporting birthright citizens – perhaps I could agree she was a victorious negotiator. But she didn’t. She didn’t “get” anything. She conceeded to avoid the wrath of Trump’s tariffs. We’ll see how she does next month when the issue comes up again and Trump demands even more from her/Mexico. Poor and un/under-educated people only care that the costs for what they need don’t go up, and that someone keeps the spigot open giving them a handout. Those are people who are easily manipulated and overwhelmingly are going to give Sheinbaum high marks. I’m not anti-Sheinbaum. I think she’s educated and has had success in local government, and may even be a successful President. I just don’t see where she has done anything “real” to earn the praise she’s being given. Continuing to push that narrative, she’s also deceiving the Mexican people. 🤙✌️&❤️
Having a government solution for every problem appeals to most people. They see the benefit while the costs are hidden. One of the largest costs is the loss of freedom. The larger the government, the less freedom. Sadly, Mexicans don’t value freedom all that highly.
For all the Magat blather about freedom, Mexicans and Gringos enjoy far more freedom here than we ever had in the US. What metric[s] did you use to conclude that Mexicans don’t value freedom all that highly?
Jim’s comment has to be one of the most ridiculous I’ve ever read.