Mexico’s gross domestic product (GDP) increased 4.3% in the third quarter of 2022 compared to the same period of last year, preliminary data shows.
Seasonally adjusted data published by the national statistics agency INEGI on Monday showed that primary, secondary and tertiary economic activity increased 3.5%, 4% and 4.3%, respectively, in the July-August quarter.
Banco Base economic analyst Gabriela Siller said that the strong annual growth in the third quarter was due to a low comparison base, as GDP declined 0.5% in the same period last year.
Preliminary data also showed that growth was 2.7% in the first nine months of the year compared to the same period of 2021, and quarter-over-quarter growth was 1% in Q3. The latter result was above the 0.8% average growth forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, and slightly better than the 0.9% quarter-over-quarter expansion recorded between April and June.
Final third quarter data will be published on November 25. Based on the preliminary data, Mexico has now recorded annual growth during six consecutive quarters, and quarter-over-quarter growth in three successive three-month periods.
However, GDP — which slumped by over 8% in 2020 before growing almost 5% last year — has not yet reached the pre-pandemic levels of 2019. Janneth Quiroz, deputy director of economic analysis at the Monex financial group, said that GDP last quarter was at a similar level to that of the fourth quarter of 2017.
The federal Finance Ministry is forecasting GDP growth of 2.4% this year, saying in a statement Friday that economic activity remained “solid” in the third quarter. Growth in the number of formal sector jobs, a surge in remittances, tourism revenue, strong demand for Mexican-made and grown exports and foreign investment fueled by the nearshoring phenomenon are among the factors that have benefited the economy this year.
Deputy Finance Minister Gabriel Yorio predicted that Mexico’s GDP will continue to grow in 2023 even if the global economy slows. “While the world might enter a stage of … economic downturn, growth will continue to be positive in Mexico’s case,” he said.
The World Bank is forecasting that the Mexican economy will grow 1.5% next year, but Bloomberg reported earlier this month that “a near-certain U.S. recession” in 2023 “will likely pull Mexico’s economy into a contraction.”