During the first ten months of 2025, foreign investors withdrew more than 130 billion pesos (US $7 billion) in bonds backed by the Mexican government, marking one of the largest outflows of foreign capital from government instruments in recent years. 

According to data from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), at the end of 2024, some 1.8 trillion pesos (US $99.5 billion) in Mexican government bonds were held by foreign investors.

In contrast, by the end of October of this year, the amount declined to 1.7 trillion pesos (US $92.4 billion) after investors sold off government bonds worth 43.6 billion pesos (US $2.3 billion) in October alone, marking seven consecutive months of capital outflows.

The Trump effect?

According to the central bank, in January, the month Donald Trump returned to the U.S. presidency, foreign investors sold off 29 billion pesos (US $1.5 billion) worth of Mexican government bonds.

February saw a rebound, with purchases amounting to 49 billion pesos (US $2.6 billion), followed by 17.2 billion pesos (US $925 million) in March.

However, since then, there have only been outflows. In April, foreign investors sold off 27.8 billion pesos (US $1.52 billion) of bonds. May sales reached 46 billion pesos (2.53 billion), followed by losses of 4.9 billion pesos (US $272 million) in June, 9 billion pesos (US $489 million) in July, 10 billion pesos (US $544 million) in August and 32 billion pesos (US $1.7 billion) in September.

Analysts at Banamex noted that foreign holdings of bonds now account for 12% of the total, the lowest level since 2010. 

The outflow coincides with a period of global financial volatility, marked by geopolitical tensions stemming in part from tariffs and trade policies imposed by the United States administration, as well as uncertainty over the upcoming review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). 

Another key factor is the decline in interest rates for financial instruments like Federal Treasury Certificates. In 2025, these rates stood at around 11%, but due to ongoing cuts have lowered interest rates to approximately 7%.

If the trend continues, analysts predict an adjustment in interest rates and greater volatility in the Mexican peso, especially as elections and the renegotiation of the USMCA approach.

Central bank again drops interest rates a quarter-point, but continued easing is no certainty 

While government bonds have fallen out of favor with foreign investors, capital is still flowing into the country through other routes. Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Mexico increased 14.5% in the first nine months of 2025 to reach just over US $40.9 billion — a new record for the time period, President Claudia Sheinbaum said Thursday.

“The willingness to invest in our country is reaffirmed,”she wrote in a social media post. “We’re going to end 2025 very well.”  

With reports from La Jornada and La Verdad Noticias