United States President Donald Trump said on the first day of his second term that his administration could impose a 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian exports to the U.S. on Feb. 1.
But will Trump actually act on his threat and hit the United States’ North American trade partners with a punitive tariff for what he says is their failure to stop, or at least limit, the flow of migrants and drugs into the U.S.? Even without first engaging in formal talks with Mexico and Canada?
According to U.S. government sources who spoke with The Wall Street Journal, the possibility is very real.
“He’s as serious as a heart attack,” said Republican Party Senator Kevin Cramer in reference to Trump’s tariff threat against Mexico and Canada.
Unnamed White House advisers told the WSJ that Trump feels that Mexico and Canada aren’t taking his threats seriously and wants to impose tariffs on their exports to prove he isn’t bluffing and to force them to negotiate on a range of issues including migration, drug smuggling and the USMCA free trade pact, which is up for review in 2026.
Citing “people familiar with the matter,” the WSJ reported last week that Trump was “using the threat of imposing stiff tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico” as soon as Feb. 1 “to pressure the two nations to start renegotiating” the USMCA ahead of schedule.
Are US tariffs a ploy to speed up USMCA review? Thursday’s mañanera recapped
Trump himself said in late November that he would impose 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports on the first day of his second term and leave them in place “until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!”
While he held off on the proposed tariffs last week, he laid the groundwork for their implementation by issuing an “America First Trade Policy” memorandum that directed the Secretary of Commerce to investigate the United States’ “large and persistent annual trade deficits” and “recommend appropriate measures, such as a global supplemental tariff or other policies, to remedy such deficits.”
Trump uses Colombia as an example of his willingness to act against allies
Trump said on social media on Sunday that he had been informed that “two [U.S. military] repatriation flights from the United States, with a large number of Illegal Criminals, were not allowed to land in Colombia.”
As a consequence, he announced that he had directed his administration to impose “emergency 25% tariffs” on all Colombian goods entering the United States.
“In one week, the 25% tariffs will be raised to 50%,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro said that Colombia — a long-standing ally of the U.S. — would retaliate with its own tariffs on U.S. goods.
However, a trade war was averted because, according to White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, the Colombian government agreed to “all of President Trump’s terms, including the unrestricted acceptance of all illegal aliens from Colombia returned from the United States, including on U.S. military aircraft, without limitation or delay.”
🚨The Government of Colombia has agreed to all of President Trump’s terms pic.twitter.com/mQocusSGOC
— Karoline Leavitt (@PressSec) January 27, 2025
“Based on this agreement, the fully drafted IEEPA [International Emergency Economic Powers Act] tariffs and sanctions will be held in reserve, and not signed, unless Colombia fails to honor this agreement,” Leavitt said in a statement on Sunday night.
An unnamed senior Trump administration official told the WSJ that the president’s decision to impose tariffs on Colombian exports, despite the subsequent pullback, demonstrated that Trump sees tariffs as an “effective negotiating tool” and “effective punishment” for countries that don’t fall into line with his agenda.
The official said that Trump is “very serious” about his threats to impose tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada and expects them to cooperate.
Investment bank Goldman Sachs told clients last week that it sees a 20% chance that Trump will impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada this Saturday.
Tick-tock! This week will be pivotal
By Goldman Sachs’ reckoning, Mexico has an 80% chance of averting the tariff Trump has said he could impose on its exports. But with just five days left until the U.S. president’s revised imposition date, the Mexican government will have to act quickly.
President Claudia Sheinbaum has said that her administration will seek to stave off the tariff threat through dialogue with the U.S. government. On Monday, she expressed her support for the agreement between Colombia and the United States, saying that it is “good because dialogue and respect must prevail.”

Sheinbaum said last week that “a process of talks” between the Mexican and U.S. governments had begun with a call between Foreign Affairs Minister Juan Ramón de la Fuente and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. She also said she was “convinced” that her government would reach agreement with the Trump administration on “different issues.”
No doubt the Mexican government will this week seek an agreement that wards off tariffs on Mexican exports to the United States, which is easily Mexico’s largest trade partner. But it remains to be seen whether it will have enough time — and whether the U.S. government will be willing — to reach a deal.
Unlike Colombia, Mexico last week did accept repatriation flights from the United States, according to Leavitt, although it reportedly denied one U.S. military plane access to land.
A White House official attributed the denial to an “administrative issue,” and Leavitt said on X on Friday that “thanks to President Trump” Mexico “accepted a record 4 deportation flights in 1 day” on Thursday.
“This comes in addition to unrestricted returns at the land border, the deportation of non-Mexicans, & reinstatement of Remain-in-Mexico. Mexico has also mobilized 30K National Guard,” the White House Press Secretary said.
While Mexico is receiving deportees — and has developed a strategy to help them reintegrate into society — Trump tied his tariff threat to the northward flows of migrants and narcotics, and is therefore seeking increased action from the Mexican government to stem those flows.
Mexico hasn’t done enough to avoid tariffs, says US official
Sheinbaum has repeatedly said that her government is willing to cooperate with its U.S. counterpart on the issues of migration and drug trafficking, albeit on the proviso that Mexico’s sovereignty is respected.

Mexican officials have stressed that they are already taking strong action against narcotics, touting arrests of high-profile cartel figures and large drug seizures including the confiscation of more than 1 tonne of fentanyl in two busts in Sinaloa last month.
Sheinbaum has highlighted that encounters between United States authorities and migrants on the Mexico-U.S. border have fallen significantly and stressed that migrant caravans don’t reach the border “because they are taken care of” — or broken up — in Mexico.
However, the senior Trump administration official who spoke with the WSJ said that Mexico hasn’t yet done enough to avoid tariffs. The Journal reported that the official wouldn’t specify what other steps the Mexican government would have to take to avoid duties on its exports to the U.S.
Sheinbaum said late last year that Mexico would impose a retaliatory tariff on U.S. exports if Trump acted on his threat, but more recently she has focused on avoiding the commencement of a trade war.
Whether Mexico will be able to negotiate its way out of the tariffs remains to be seen, but the WSJ reported that some key figures in the U.S. government are not willing to talk — at least not yet.
“Protectionist advisers such as Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick and deputy chief of staff for policy Stephen Miller are advocating the tariff-first-talk-second approach, according to people familiar with the discussions,” the Journal reported.
However, “no final decisions on Canada and Mexico have been made,” the WSJ said.
In addition to imposing tariffs this Saturday, “other options are also in play,” the Journal said, explaining that they include “announcing tariffs on Feb. 1 but giving a grace period before they are implemented.”
The potential impact of tariffs on Mexico
If the U.S. president were to impose a 25% tariff on Mexican exports in violation of the terms of the USMCA, the Mexican economy would go into recession, according to Gabriela Siller, director of economic analysis at Mexico’s Banco Base.
However, she said on X last week that it is “highly unlikely that Trump will impose a general 25% tariff on all products from Mexico, at least not for a long period of time.”
“A 25% tariff would be equivalent to leaving the USMCA,” Siller said.
“This would mean a structural change for the Mexican economy that would result in a severe recession, job losses, an increase in [employment] informality to rates above 60% and an increase in public insecurity.”
The WSJ reported that “a 25% tariff could grind the auto industry to a halt across the continent, depending on how it is imposed, because vehicles and auto parts cross borders several times before a final car is completed.”
Mexico’s auto industry is an economic powerhouse, generating almost US $194 billion in export revenue last year, according to national statistics agency INEGI.
With reports from WSJ
trump and his circus of clowns are cruel modern day nazis unworthy of Mexican authority attention of any kind. When he doesn’t get attention he moves on to ever weaker prey. uckfay rumptay…
You lost any point you are trying to make once you use the term “nazi”.
The term Modern Day Nazi is self explanatory. They still have the Nazi values but aren’t able to execute their agenda during this day and age. But Trump gives them hope
You lost any point by refuting and denying that they are in fact nazis. It’s clear as day honey, but try again.
The felon president never stops his nonsense until someone calls his bluffs or makes him pay for his crimes.
NamadAsh, you are part of the problem, but you are too “dumb” to see all the surroundings around you and “how your past Mexican presidents, bad choices, have ruined your life. Quit complaining and blame the Mexican politicians for the “mess” your country is in right now. When you encounter all these fellow Mexican immigrants flooding coming back home, ask them why they left Mexico to live in the United States? They will all tell you because there was no opportunity in Mexico. Go hug these migrants and “welcome them back home” And quit your complaining. Pray that God will open your eyes so can see the real world around you. and what got you in thsis mess you are in. in the first place.
Need a hug, big guy?
He’s an idiot and doesn’t know what is going on.
The negative comments (Nazi, clown….) from some on this forum is sad. One would think common sense would win out over ignorance.
It didn’t happen at the polls….
Nicely said. Thank you.
NomadAsh Conrad if you’re not happy with America go back to your Narco Country Mexico. And if you’re an American Mexican representing The Democratic Party of Treason just STFU! No one’s listening or cares what you got to say.
Well said Mike, I agree.
🍿🍿🍺🍺
Wow! OPTIMA sure is ESTUPIDA! 🤣
NomadAsh Conrad is absolutely correct. There are 3 categories of people who support Trump. 1) They would sell their souls for a tax break 2) They are big time racists (may be 1 & 2 combined) 3) They don’t have an effing clue about what’s really going on in the Rep party right now. But they will soon find out
100%. Many of them are all three!
agreed. Keep the felony president’s ideas out of MX. Sheinbaum, give him a shiner!
I think you all are idiots. We are neither of the three. We’re just tired of the Democrats running all over us and taking away our rights as citizens of this country. You must be young ones who don’t even know what our rights are. The schools have not taught these things for years.
Amen. The u.s. school system is largely responsible for the decline of that society. It’s run by communists who indoctrinate, not educate students and it’s been that way for decades. Shut down the department of education and put education back in the hands of the states. That would be a start.
Trump will hand Democrats runaway food inflation if he slaps the tariffs on. And the Democrats may once again prove themselves incapable of capitalizing in the mid-term election because they have no vision, no ideas, no clear goals. Talk about a shithole country.
I agree Trump will hand the Democrats a mess which they will have to clean up, just like Obama did and just like Biden did. But the reason the Dems can’t capitalize on their successes is because they refuse to run on a campaign of lies, conspiracy theories and alternative facts AND half of the American voters are as gullible as all get-out and have no problem swallowing the misinformation like it’s candy
This
Optima you aree right on all these never Trumpers can’t get out of there own shadow discusting all part of Swamp
I have met many Mexicans who went to the US but have eventually returned to Mexico on their own accord. They have all indicated to me that they prefer Mexico, even with the limited opportunities. You must ask yourself why Americans, with all their opportunities at home, often prefer Mexico. It’s not just the $
Well did you ask them who was the President when they were here and then left? I just bet it was a Democrat, since that is all we can get from the big wigs. They are not out for us but for themselves and world order.
I too have met Mexicans who returned to Mexico from the states. They mostly said it was because Americans don’t believe in anything… God, family values, etc.
The US doesn’t need foreign help.
I was just informed that two repatriation flights from the United States, with a large number of Illegal Criminals, were not allowed to land in Colombia.
My question is: Are there legal criminals?
🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯
A 25% tariff on Mexican exports to the US presumably would include avocados and tequila. The forthcoming guacamole parties at the Superbowl better be ready to shell out a lot more for their guac and margaritas.
Bring it ON! Those who drink margaritas and eat guacamole, can easily afford an upcharge it it makes the streets safer when they go home from the Super Bowl party.
Where is the destination of all these drugs, the United States of America that’s the real narco country