In Texas, where I’m from, we just had two primaries for the U.S. Senate: Republican and Democrat. Turnout was surprisingly good for the Democrats’ primary, which gives me hope. Might we finally get a Texas Democrat in the Senate?

Everyone, of course, is after “the Latino vote.” Because Latinos make up over 40% of the population in Texas, it makes sense: Get them on your side and you’ve nearly cinched the election.

Trump and the Latino vote in Texas

Much to my disappointment, Trump in particular and Republicans in general did just that in the last election. In my own opinion, a vote for Trump is a vote against one’s own self-interest… unless you happen to be a billionaire Scrooge McDuck-type whose mouth waters at the prospect of infinite tax breaks and zero social responsibility.

So on its surface, it’s a mystery. Didn’t he call them all “rapists and murderers”? Isn’t he directing untrained ICE thugs in masks to indiscriminately stop people who “look” like immigrants (i.e., Brown people)?

And while some are beginning to turn against him — mostly because prices haven’t gone down as he promised they would — plenty still say he’s doing “a great job.”

Oh, brother.

Trump and Mexico

In Mexico, the people I’ve met who like and admire Trump are pretty few and far between. But there’s a certain subset, on both sides of the border, that really seems to admire him.

It’s an enigma until you remember how many Latinos on both sides of the border are actually pretty socially conservative. I know several people who were won over to his side as a result of trans panic, convinced that unqualified people were getting jobs they didn’t deserve. (For that, of course, look no further than literally all of his political appointees.)

And like it or not, the perception currently is that conservatives “own” God and religion. Plenty of people also believe that immigration can and does go too far and perhaps aren’t paying much attention to the specifics. There have also been many people perfectly happy to pull the ladder up behind them on the other side of the border.

Honestly, I’m sure plenty of us living in places where more and more of our own countrymen are showing up can relate.

Those who like Trump and those who don’t

The fact that men overwhelmingly approve of him also points to a real admiration for “tough guy” types. We may have a woman president and an active feminist movement in Mexico, but machismo has by no means died.

As you can see, I’ve thought a lot about what has inspired Latinos in the U.S. to vote for this guy.

But I’m proud to say that Mexicans, for the part, see the writing on the wall with this dude. They have resisted the seduction of the macho man up north, as Mexico often has.

Interestingly, Mexico seems to be becoming more liberal, while the U.S. becomes more conservative.

Seeing the writing on the wall is not hard, of course, if you’ve been paying even minimal attention. Let us count the ways!

Trump’s beef with Mexico

One of the first indications that he was ready to start poking was the petty name change from “Gulf of Mexico” to “Gulf of America.” (Supposedly, Google Maps in Mexico still calls it “Gulf of Mexico,” but on my own phone it says “America.” Maybe because I have the OS set up in English?)

Fine. A little too silly to take seriously, but a poke nonetheless.

The truth is, though, that everything that happens in the United States affects Mexico. As of this writing, I even see the peso losing value as a result of uncertainty regarding the war with Iran. 

And Trump’s definitely got his eye on Mexico. As much as Sheinbaum has expertly kept his worst actions at bay, it’s hard to deny that the flip side of the coin of never assuming blame for anything is blaming others.

In Mexico, he’s done it quite a bit. How has Mexico “screwed over” (not my words) the U.S.? Let him count the ways.

His main complaint, of course, is the passage of drugs from Mexico into the US. Obviously, no blame is accepted regarding the U.S. demand for drugs, or the fact that the weapons narcos use to run the show are primarily from the U.S.

Then there are the narcos. In his mind, he could wipe them all out in one fell swoop. “Just say the word, and we’re there!” he tells President Sheinbaum.

And, of course, the tariffs, where he could do real damage. His failure to grasp basic economic concepts has convinced him that everyone is cheating the U.S., and his use of the threat of excessive tariffs has incredibly real-world consequences down here.

How is Mexico (mostly) escaping Trump’s ire?

For one, we have a president who couldn’t be more different than her northern counterpart. To his bombastic posturing, Sheinbaum’s speeches are steady and measured. By comparison, she sounds downright sleepy.

She’s also good at giving him just enough of what he wants to placate him. As I’ve written before, Mexican politicians are experts at dealing with gangsters. And Trump is definitely a gangster.

So far, she’s doing great with her handling of him. And people are mostly happy with this “leftist” government. In Mexico, living conditions are improving and most of the ruling party’s policies are popular. Things are getting better, not worse.

A loony, erratic and scary presidency

Alas, Mexico knows it’s on Trump’s list. He looks at us and licks his lips, surely fantasizing about being single-handedly credited with eliminating the narcos.

He’s claimed victory in Venezuela and is drooling over Cuba (citizen suffering be damned). He’s distracted now with Iran, but no doubt he’ll set his wolf eyes on us again soon.

Can Sheinbaum hold the line while we run out the clock on his loony and erratic presidency?

So far, so good. But let’s all keep our fingers crossed extra tight just in case.

Sarah DeVries is a writer and translator based in Xalapa, Veracruz. She can be reached through her website, sarahedevries.substack.com.