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Mexico’s greatest race: The 1950 Carrera Panamericana

One of the signal achievements of Miguel Alemán Valdés’ six-year term as president of Mexico (1946-1952) was the building of important new roads. The most notable of these — at least symbolically — was the completion of Mexico’s portion of the Pan-American Highway, the world’s longest road, which stretches over 30,600 kilometers (19,000 miles) from Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, to Ushuaia, Argentina, crossing through 14 countries en route.
All 14 nations involved had agreed to cooperate back in 1937, when they signed a pact (the Convention on the Pan-American Highway) to complete their sections as expeditiously as possible. Mexico was the first of the Latin American countries to do so in 1950, when it put the finishing touches on its 3,440 kilometers of highway between Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua and Ciudad Cuauhtémoc, Chiapas.

It was an achievement worth celebrating. Guillermo Ostos’ idea, which the executive in the Secretariat of Communications and Public Works had as far back as 1947, was for an open-road race the length of Mexico along the newly minted Pan-American Highway. President Alemán agreed, and the first Carrera Panamericana was held May 5-10, 11 days before the president officially inaugurated the highway on May 21, 1950.
The longest race in the world
By the middle of the 20th century, several major open-road endurance races had been established in Europe. However, none of them — not the 1,080-kilometer Targa Florio in Sicily, the 1,600-kilometer Mille Miglia in Italy, or the 24 Hours of Le Mans in France — would cover as much ground as the Carrera Panamericana race contested in Mexico in 1950.
Indeed, the 2,135-mile border-to-border Carrera Panamericana from Ciudad Juárez to El Ocotal, Chiapas, was to be the longest race in the world, a fact that no doubt contributed to the excitement that surrounded its initial running — not just in Mexico, but also in the U.S. Eddie Rickenbacker, the World War I fighter ace and Medal of Honor recipient was enthusiastic, as was Wilbur Shaw, the president of the Indianapolis Motor Speedway, and even California governor Earl Warren. The latter, however, who later became Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, contributed to a gaffe on the trophy he donated. The Mexican jeweler, instructed by Warren to inscribe “won by,” misinterpreted it as “one buy,” and engraved una compra instead.
The competitors in the first Carrera Panamericana
The government-funded race and its 334,000 peso prize pool (150,000 of which was earmarked for the winner) drew a veritable who’s who of acclaimed race car drivers. Felice Bonetto, for example, won the 1952 Targa Florio in Sicily for Lancia. Piero Taruffi was a winner of the 1957 Mille Miglia for Ferrari, and like Bonetto, a noted Formula One driver. Herschel McGriff would later be elected to the NASCAR Hall of Fame and Johnny Mantz raced in the 1948 and 1949 Indianapolis 500 races before heading to Mexico to try his luck in 1950. Afterward, he would declare the Indy 500 easy by comparison.
But many of the 132 entrants in the first Carrera Panamericana were not professionals. Well … the Mexican taxi drivers who competed were professionals of a sort. Not so with the women drivers, who, according to Johnny Tipler in his 2008 book “La Carrera Panamericana: The World’s Greatest Road Race,” ranged from a movie actress, Jacqueline Evans, to a few adventurous grandmothers.
“Mrs. H.R. Lammons from Jacksonville, Texas, was one who made it to the final leg,” he wrote. “Her 1948 Buick was sponsored by a local brassiere manufacturer and the car sported a fine example of the company’s product painted on each side.”

The cars they drove
The automobiles they drove were, by race regulation, stock cars sold to the public with seating for at least five people. Sports cars were not allowed, at least in 1950. The resulting field of cars was overwhelmingly American-made and consisted primarily of Cadillacs, Buicks, Oldsmobiles and Lincolns, with the odd Nash, Packard or Studebaker.
“President Alemán himself sponsored two cars,” Tipler noted. “A 1950 Cadillac known as ‘Coche Mexico’ piloted by Rodolfo Castañeda, which rolled twice, injuring its co-driver, and a 1950 Studebaker, entered on behalf of the national university (UNAM) from which the president had graduated with a law degree 20 years earlier.”
The most dangerous race in the world
The Carrera Panamericana in its initial incarnation lasted for only five years (1950-1954) and part of the reason was its undeniable danger, as 31 drivers and spectators were killed, four in 1950 alone. The same danger dogged the Mille Miglia and Le Mans, and when the latter race suffered a tragedy in 1955, with a crash killing upwards of 80 people, most of them spectators, it marked the end of some governments’ support for these kinds of races under their existing form. The Carrera Panamericana shut down before its 1955 running, as it lacked the support of Alemán’s successor, Adolfo Ruiz Cortines. The Mille Miglia followed suit in Italy in 1961.
These contests, however, were challenging even for those who survived them; the Carrera Panamericana, particularly so, due to its high elevation, with mountainous roads featuring precipitous drops. The race was largely routed at over 4,000 feet before it reached Oaxaca, climbing to over 7,000 feet in Mexico City, Toluca and Puebla, and topping 10,000 feet at one pass near the Popocatepetl volcano. Herschel McGriff, who won the six-day, nine-leg race in 1950 in his “City of Roses” Oldsmobile 88, was scared to death when he drove back home afterward at a sedate pace and suddenly noticed all the sheer cliff drop-offs near the side of the highway.
McGriff also had to battle another challenge; neither he nor his co-driver, Ray Elliott, liked Mexican food. As a consequence, they would lose a combined 43 pounds during the nearly week-long race.
The revival
Three decades after the last of the Carrera Panamericana races was run in 1954, it was revived by race driver Eduardo “Lalo” León in 1988. León had attended one of the original races with his father and still had a great nostalgia for its charms. However, the format would change, becoming much safer as it was transformed into a vintage rally race.

He wasn’t the only one who loved it, as it turns out. The race is still being run today, with the 2025 edition concluding in October with a victory by Mexicans Ricardo Cordero and Marco Hernández. It was the seventh victory in the reconstituted race for Cordero, tying him with France’s Pierre de Thoisy for the most ever by a driver. Hernández, meanwhile, now has the most Carrera Panamericana titles by a navigator, with eight.
“People love the race and we respect them,” Karen León, Eduardo’s daughter and the race’s organizer, told Autoweek in 2022. “The people respect the race and love being part of it. You see the hospitality of Mexico, that Mexico that we love, and that Mexico that we want to people to know and to enjoy.”
Chris Sands is a writer and editor for Mexico News Daily, and the former Cabo San Lucas local expert for the USA Today travel website 10 Best and writer of Fodor’s Los Cabos travel guidebook. He’s a contributor to numerous websites and publications, including The San Diego Union-Tribune, Marriott Bonvoy Traveler, Forbes Travel Guide, Porthole Cruise and Travel, and Cabo Living.
The growing tragedy of Cuba
Especially for those of us from north of the border, the idea of truly being trapped is foreign to most of us.
Look how many of us had the freedom to simply pick up and move to Mexico, for example! Doing it “the right way“ might be complicated (and expensive), but it’s not impossible. And anyway, even doing it “the wrong way” does not typically get us abused or deported.

Plenty of us have been through tough times and situations. But we’ve mostly been through them as free citizens of a free nation. Most of us English speakers who’ve immigrated to Mexico grew up in places where getting a fair shake is simply expected.
If worst comes to worst, we can usually find a job — even if it’s not the job we want. We can count on grocery stores being stocked with food and on getting a steady flow of electricity. There are enough comfortable people around us that charity is a real possibility if we wind up needing it.
A life without agency
All this is to say that it’s rare that most of us living today have been in situations of having no hope or agency. It is because we haven’t, I’d argue, that it’s so easy to dismiss refugees fleeing hopeless situations in their own countries, or to imagine that people unable to help themselves are truly unable to: we simply can’t imagine being unable to do anything about a bad situation we may find ourselves in.
This is a very different experience from many others in the world, who are basically fish in a barrel. Look at Gaza, for example. For most Palestinians, there’s literally no way out other than death. Look at Sudan, where poverty is rampant and soldiers roam from town to town taking what they will. Or look at Ukraine, fighting to defend its sovereignty, the world apparently weaker than it seemed to stop such an obvious violation by a stronger power. Russia’s young men, in the meantime, are being plucked by force to go fight in a useless war. Look at Venezuela: poverty, shortages of goods and services, and a takeover by a country that openly cares about its national resources, not the people.
Look at Cuba.
What’s happening in Cuba
Cuba has been in the news a lot more lately, and not for reasons it would like. Its people are suffering, starving and dying of preventable diseases.

The reason is not that they don’t work hard enough; it’s not that they’ve failed to “find solutions.” It’s the literal squeezing from the U.S. In classic Trump fashion, he’s actively causing the pain, then blaming those suffering for the consequences of it. Donald Trump wants it “fallen” and is salivating already: another notch in his belt after his “success” in Venezuela.
And now he’s preventing, in a major way, Mexico from helping.
One of the most meaningful ways that Mexico could help, and has helped, is by sending oil. In 2025, it surpassed Venezuela as its main oil supplier, which Cuba depends on for electricity.
US designs on Cuba
But Trump has become bolder and more confident. Though Mexico and Cuba have been close allies for a long time, Cuba has managed to stay on the U.S.’s bad side since their revolution in 1959. Obama re-established relations with the country, only to have them turned right back around by Trump … twice.
When you think about it, it’s hands down amazing that Cuba has survived for so many decades with outright hostility from their largest and most powerful neighbor. And even in its poverty, Cuba’s people have managed to do amazing things, turning out top doctors, dancers and artists. Given the circumstances, it’s amazing Cubans have accomplished so much.
But now, they are in a true new crisis, caused single-handedly by the U.S. government under Donald Trump. We know that Trump’s got his eye on Cuba for conquest, and signs seem to point to him having an eye on Mexico as well. That story about the El Paso airport closing because they were fighting off Mexican drones? They couldn’t be more transparent if they were made of Saran Wrap.

This puts Mexico in a tough spot. Mexico wants to help Cuba, as it always has. And it has done so despite the disapproval of the U.S. Honestly, Mexico has been a great “Switzerland” in the situation: it has stayed in the U.S.’s good graces while helping an ally that has lived for decades under the U.S.’s very intentional thumb.
Trapped on an island
Cubans right now are pretty much literally fish in a barrel. It’s an island. How to escape one’s fate? Again, most of the readers of Mexico News Daily have never had to deal with the certainty that we’d flat-out die if someone didn’t show mercy. If we have, it’s been on an individual basis, not because we happened to live in a certain place. We’ve grown up knowing that 1) help was likely to arrive and 2) there were things we could do to help ourselves.
What can Cubans do (or Palestinians, for that matter)? When a powerful country has decided you must be collectively brought to your knees, there’s nothing you can do to keep your children, or yourself, from suffering the consequences. They must die because someone you don’t know wants to use you as a pawn to bring some other power you also have little to do with to their knees. It is the very definition of “unfair.” (In a book I recently read, a god says, “Fair? What’s fair?”)
I’m with President Sheinbaum on this one: “You can agree or not agree with a regime, but the people should never be affected.”
I wish the people insisting on Cubans’ suffering could get behind that message, too.
Sarah DeVries is a writer and translator based in Xalapa, Veracruz. She can be reached through her website, sarahedevries.substack.com.
The iconic Nissan Tsuru returns as a Mexico City taxi Hot Wheels collectible
Going back to the mid-1980s, there has been a devotional zeal in Mexico regarding the Nissan Tsuru — the Japanese sedan known for its economic affordability and robust durability. Outside of the Volkswagen Beetle, which has had an equally dominant grasp on Mexican consumers for decades, the Tsuru has long been an emblematic vehicle for Mexicans.
That’s especially amplified by the fact that the vehicle never made it to the U.S. or Canadian markets — at least not under the same iconic Tsuru title. Instead, Nissan rebranded it as the Sentra elsewhere. But in Mexico and Latin America, it forever remained the Tsuru.
The golden age of the Nissan Tsuru

The result? Tsurus have abounded throughout Mexico, where it became a best-selling vehicle and was manufactured from 1984 to 2017, the year it ceased production. Ever since, the car has remained highly sought after. Part of the Tsuru’s appeal has always been in its humble, no frills quality — a bare-bones, low price machine seemingly made for the common person.
It’s not only Mexican families who bought the car by the droves, either. The little Nissan that could is equally beloved by the nation’s taxistas. For anyone who has ever visited Mexico, there’s a high likelihood that the first taxi you’ve flagged down is a Tsuru, no matter what part of the country you’ve been in. The sleek, 4-door ride is big enough to comfortably fit a sizable group, but compact enough to maneuver Mexico’s tightest corners and traffic-congested lanes, making it an ideal choice for a taxi driver in every sense.
The Tsuru returns as a Hot Wheels collectible
The Tsuru fervor has now reached a new level in Mexico with the introduction of the legendary CDMX taxi in the form of a Hot Wheels diecast, officially listed as a “‘91 Nissan Sentra SE-R.”
At the very end of 2025, the popular toy company announced the addition of a 1991 Mexico City-themed Nissan Tsuru taxi, available only in a limited supply of 3,500 and exclusively for sale in Mexico through Mercado Libre. The car features the pink colorway of CDMX’s taxis (a controversial design choice that was first implemented in Mexico City at the end of 2014 in an effort to standardize taxis and rebrand the city’s safety appeal to tourists) rather than its former green or yellow variations.
The Mexican internet went bonkers for it, posting videos and reactions to the Hot Wheel release, with rampant jokes about the high cost (originally listed at 5,000 Mexican pesos, but reselling for as much as 20,000) being worth an actual Tsuru.
The Tsuru Hot Wheels’ reception
There have been a few online criticisms: for one, the Hot Wheels Tsuru is a two-door coupe version rather than the more popular four-door sedan. Indeed, Nissan did make two-door variations of the Tsuru, but they are far less common, particularly for taxis, which are typically four-door for easy passenger access. Second, Hot Wheels has released the Tsuru in prior years, but not in taxi form — leaving some Mexican customers wondering if the color change is worth the egregious price differential.

Despite the jokes and pushback, the car’s viral appeal was boosted by Mexican influencers like Marvin Bara posting videos on Instagram of the anticipated Hot Wheels unboxing, showcasing the careful thought and design that went into it all, which includes a collector’s case and other memorabilia.
The high price of nostalgia
If you’re thinking of getting one, it’s possible, but it’ll cost you. The lowest price I’ve seen online is for 5,500 pesos (not too bad), but you’ll likely be paying upward of 7,000 to 20,000.
Though the Tsuru hasn’t been manufactured for nearly a decade, its return in miniature form was a fun surprise to end the year. No other car has held such an alluring charm over Mexican drivers during that time. The next time you’re on the road in Mexico, I challenge you to count how many Tsurus you see in one outing. Who knows, maybe you’ll want to get one yourself to keep the mythology going.
Alan Chazaro is the author of “This Is Not a Frank Ocean Cover Album,” “Piñata Theory” and “Notes From the Eastern Span of the Bay Bridge” (Ghost City Press, 2021). He is a graduate of June Jordan’s Poetry for the People program at UC Berkeley and a former Lawrence Ferlinghetti Fellow at the University of San Francisco. His writing can be found in GQ, NPR, The Guardian, L.A. Times and more. Originally from the San Francisco Bay Area, he is currently based in Veracruz.
Who will succeed ‘El Mencho’ as chief of the Jalisco cartel? Friday’s mañanera recapped

President Claudia Sheinbaum held her Friday morning press conference in Mazatlán, the top tourist destination in the northern state of Sinaloa.
During a security update, National Public Security System chief Marcela Figueroa reported that the daily homicide rate in Sinaloa in January was 3.42, a reduction of 50% from the recent peak of 6.9 last June. Sinaloa — plagued in recent times by violence related to infighting between rival factions of the Sinaloa Cartel — was Mexico’s fourth most violent state in 2025 in terms of total homicides.

Security Minister Omar García Harfuch reported that 2,225 people were arrested in Sinaloa for allegedly committing high-impact crimes between Oct. 1, 2024 — the day the current government took office — and Feb. 15, 2026.
Later in the press conference, officials responded to questions related to last Sunday’s military operation against Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) leader Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes, who died after being shot by soldiers in Tapalpa, Jalisco.
García Harfuch: 4 possible successors to ‘El Mencho’
Asked who could take control of the CJNG in the wake of Oseguera’s death, García Harfuch first noted that the cartel has a presence in “various states” — i.e. the vast majority of Mexico’s 32 federal entities.
He then told reporters that the cartel has regional leaders, and revealed that authorities have identified the four “strongest” leaders within “this criminal group.”
García Harfuch said that those leaders — who he didn’t identify — are “under investigation.”
He subsequently said that two of those four leaders are considered most likely to succeed “El Mencho” as head of the CJNG, generally regarded as one of the two most powerful criminal organizations in Mexico, the other being the Sinaloa Cartel.
While García Harfuch didn’t mention any names, Oseguera’s stepson Juan Carlos Valencia González, a 41-year-old California native known as “R3” among other aliases, is considered a leading contender for the leadership of the cartel.
According to media reports, other possible successors to “El Mencho” include Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytán, known as “El Sapo” (The Toad); Audias Flores Silva, known as “El Jardinero” (The Gardener); Ricardo Ruiz Velasco, known as “El Doble R” (The Double R); and Heraclio Guerrero Martínez, known as “Tío Lako” (Uncle Lako).
3 soldiers were killed during operation targeting ‘El Mencho’
Defense Minister Ricardo Trevilla Trejo said that three soldiers who participated in the operation against “El Mencho” died from injuries they sustained during a gunfight with CJNG members tasked with protecting the cartel’s leader.
The Defense Ministry said last Sunday that three soldiers were wounded in the operation and subsequently airlifted to Mexico City for medical treatment.

Trevilla said that 25 other members of the military, including National Guard officers, are currently receiving treatment in hospital for injuries they sustained last Sunday. During the CJNG’s violent response to Oseguera’s death, cartel gunmen engaged in confrontations with security forces in states including Jalisco and Michoacán.
García Harfuch reported on Monday that 25 National Guard officers were killed in clashes in Jalisco, while other members of that security force and others were injured in the confrontations.
Trevilla said that only one of the 25 hospitalized troops is in a “serious-unstable” condition.
“Fortunately, the rest are stable,” he said.
In the “successful” operation against “El Mencho,” Trevilla said that a total of 12 “criminals” who were shot succumbed to their injuries. He said that two others were arrested during the operation and are in custody.
The defense minister said security forces killed “34 criminals” in clashes after last Sunday’s operation in Tapalpa, while “around 70” suspected cartel members were arrested.
Gulf Cartel leader arrested
Trevilla Trejo also responded to a question about the criminal activities of Antonio Guadalupe “N,” an alleged Gulf Cartel leader who was arrested in Matamoros, Tamaulipas, on Thursday along with eight other alleged members of the same cartel.
Trevilla said that the suspect, known as “El Lexus,” led a criminal cell and provided security to José Alfredo “El Contador” Cárdenas Martínez, “leader of the ‘Los Ciclones’ faction of the Gulf Cartel.”

“He was also in charge of [drug] production [and] drug trafficking to the United States,” he said. “That was his main function.”
García Harfuch wrote on social media on Friday morning that the Mexican Army, the National Guard and the Air Force carried out an operation in Matamoros that resulted in the arrest of Antonio Guadalupe “N,” and nine other Gulf Cartel suspects.
He said that “El Lexus” is accused of extortion, kidnapping and the trafficking of weapons, people and drugs in Mexico and the United States.
Sheinbaum: ‘We’re with the people of Sinaloa’
While improving the security situation in Jalisco has been the top focus of the federal government this week, Sheinbaum emphasized that combating crime in Sinaloa is also a priority.
“We are with the people of Sinaloa,” she said when asked what her message was for families that have been affected by violence in the state.
“And the entire security cabinet and the government of Mexico is working with the state government to guarantee peace and security,” Sheinbaum added.
“And every day we will remain here, making our best effort, … [doing] whatever the people of Sinaloa need,” the president said just before the conclusion of her Friday mañanera.
By Mexico News Daily chief staff writer Peter Davies (peter.davies@mexiconewsdaily.com)
In a historic first, the Supreme Court holds a session in a Chiapas pueblo

In its first session outside of the nation’s capital, Mexico’s Supreme Court convened in a remote mountain town in the southern state of Chiapas on Thursday, part of its plan to bring the country’s highest court to far-flung corners of the country.
Six of the nine Supreme Court justices traveled nearly 900 kilometers (560 miles) to hold an itinerant session which began with an introductory ceremony and informal greetings, followed by selfies and ovations from the audience.

The justices appeared pleased to be wearing indigenous attire and traditional hats for their first “sesión en territorio,” designed to allow the magistrates to “connect with the people” and produce “a more inclusive and accessible legal culture.”
Chief Justice Hugo Aguilar, along with Lenia Batres, Sara Irene Herrerías and Arístides Guerrero wore local outfits, while Yasmín Esquivel and Loretta Ortiz sported robes adorned with community emblems.
Two of the justices — Irving Espinosa and Giovanni Figueroa — took part remotely, while María Estela Ríos did not participate.
In the modest central square of Tenejapa, some 2,000 people listened to the court’s deliberations. Some of the Indigenous leaders held signs reading “right to self-determination,” while others were content to listen and be part of a historic moment.
Though some publications criticized the occasion as a mere photo op (Animal Político described it as “a day marked by half-baked translations, restrained applause and political winks”), there was genuine gratitude among those present that the Court had come to them.
The appreciation evolved into gratification as the justices recognized the self-government of the Tzotzil community of La Candelaria located in the municipality of San Cristobal de las Casas.
La Candelaria had been demanding self-rule for years and, by a majority vote, the Court ordered the Chiapas state Congress to forge or adapt the legal framework necessary for the full exercise of self-government. It also ordered the state government to guarantee the direct delivery of the budget that corresponds to the small village which featured a population of 1,541 in 2020.
The Supreme Court said Tenejapa was selected due to its “clear social and territorial relevance,” adding that “Chiapas is home to the third largest Indigenous population in the country, with 12 of Mexico’s 68 Indigenous groups represented.”
The journey to Tenejapa, two hours from San Cristóbal de las Casas, proved an ordeal. The judicial entourage wound its way along a road that had become a broken track, riddled with narrow curves and numerous potholes that demanded a steady but cautious pace.
The ministers traded the majestic horseshoe-shaped table and imposing platforms of the grandiose art deco Supreme Court building just off of Mexico City’s main square for a simple rectangular table under a white tent, sitting face-to-face with attendees.
The current court is the first elected by the people. The rationale for doing so was partly to make it more responsive and accountable.
With reports from The Associated Press, Animal Político and La Jornada
Coca-Cola will celebrate 100 years in Mexico by investing US $6B

Coca-Cola is expected to invest US $6 billion (103.2 billion pesos) in the Mexican market as the company celebrates 100 years of doing business in Mexico.
President Claudia Sheinbaum announced the investment on her X social media account after meeting with Coca-Cola Global Executive Director Henrique Braun at the National Palace in Mexico City.

No details were forthcoming about the investment, but Braun had said in his early fiscal year 2025 report that greater investment and a strong marketing strategy in the lead-up to the 2026 FIFA World Cup would help the company tackle the challenges brought about by Mexico’s recently introduced tax increases on sugary drinks.
The tax hikes, which also included low-calorie sodas containing non-sugar sweeteners, increase the tax rate to 3.08 pesos per liter, an 88% increase compared to the previous rate of 1.64 pesos per liter.
Coca-Cola plans to focus its marketing efforts on Mexico’s hosting of the 2026 World Cup, which Braun views as important for clients and consumers alike.
“We have been intensifying our campaigns since the first day,” he said. “We have had the campaign prepared since Jan. 1.”
“Furthermore, we are celebrating 100 years in Mexico. This will help us to navigate the strong headwinds” brought on by the new tax.
The CEO of bottler Coca-Cola FEMSA, Ian Craig García, said that the company has optimized its structure and adjusted its capital expenditure in Mexico to prepare for the fiscal challenges and the weak economic growth projected for 2026.
FEMSA’s strategy focuses on stability and the expansion of its supply of returnable containers, to help maintain its market share.
The firm hopes to use Mexico’s role as a World Cup host country to promote its brands through digital and revenue management initiatives.
“We have … developed an ambitious plan together with the Coca-Cola Company to benefit from our experience as a host country for the FIFA World Cup,” stated García.
“We remain focused on productivity and cost control initiatives, together with a prudent investment in capital,” he added.
With reports from El Financiero
Mexico’s economic growth outlook improves as Banxico, OECD lift forecasts
Mexico’s central bank and one of the world’s leading economic bodies both upgraded their growth outlooks for the country this week, offering encouragement for an economy that grew just 0.8% in 2025.
The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.6% from 1.1% in its quarterly report for October–December 2025, published Thursday. The central bank also revised its projected range upward to between 1% and 2.2%, abandoning its previous range of 0.4% to 1.8%.

Separately, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) published its Economic Survey of Mexico 2026 on the same day, projecting GDP growth of 1.4% this year and 1.7% in 2027. That compares with the OECD’s December forecast of 1.2% growth for 2026 — meaning the Paris-based organization has also nudged its outlook higher.
Banxico Governor Victoria Rodríguez Ceja, presenting the quarterly report, said that 2025 had seen an intensification of economic weakness that began in 2022, in what she described as a “particularly complex” environment characterized by “elevated uncertainty.” She attributed the improved 2026 forecast largely to better-than-expected GDP performance in the fourth quarter of 2025, which created a higher statistical base for this year’s growth.
Despite the upgrades, both institutions struck a cautious tone. Rodríguez Ceja said risks to the growth outlook remain skewed to the downside. Banxico’s report identified six key downside risks: a worsening of global uncertainty; geopolitical conflicts; slower-than-expected U.S. economic growth; supply chain disruptions from tariffs; financial market volatility; and adverse weather events.
The OECD echoed those concerns, noting that trade tensions and heightened global policy uncertainty remain significant risks, and that private investment will continue to be constrained by domestic and international uncertainty, even as it gradually benefits from lower interest rates.
Banxico’s 2027 forecast remained unchanged at 2%, the midpoint of a range between 1.2% and 2.8% — above both the OECD’s 1.7% projection and a Citi market survey estimate of 1.8%.
Both forecasts remain well below the Mexican government’s 2.3% projection, which underpinned its 2026 budget package.
The upgraded forecasts come as Mexico navigates a delicate moment: trade policy uncertainty from the United States, a pending USMCA review and domestic fiscal consolidation efforts are all shaping the economic outlook. The OECD noted that a swift and successful USMCA renegotiation could provide a meaningful boost to investment and exports beyond what is currently anticipated.
With reports from El Economista




