Sheinbaum’s mañanera in 60 seconds

• 🔻 Homicides fall to 12-year June low: National Public Security System chief Marcela Figueroa reported that June saw an average of 45.4 homicides per day — a 48% drop from September 2024 and the lowest daily rate for any June in 12 years. The first half of 2026 also saw a 30.1% decline in homicides compared to the same period last year.
• 📍More than half of homicides concentrated in 8 states: Of the 8,988 homicides recorded between January and June, 54% occurred in just eight states — led by Guanajuato, Baja California and Chihuahua. Homicides fell in 29 of Mexico’s 32 states, with only Oaxaca, Colima and Tlaxcala seeing increases.
• 🚔 Nearly 60,000 arrests, hundreds of tonnes of drugs seized since Sheinbaum took office: Security Minister Omar García Harfuch reported 59,582 arrests for high-impact crimes since Oct. 1, 2024, along with the seizure of over 31,000 firearms and nearly 499 tonnes of drugs. He said 1,674 extortionists have been detained since a new anti-extortion strategy was launched in July 2025.
• ⚽ Sheinbaum rejects idea of a World Cup “truce” behind falling homicides: Responding to claims that criminal groups struck a truce during the World Cup, Sheinbaum said June’s decline is part of a longer downward trend, not a one-month anomaly. She did credit public enthusiasm for the tournament with helping reduce insecurity, but rejected any direct link to a cartel ceasefire.
• 📊 No manipulation of homicide data: Pushing back on experts who argue some murders are misclassified as less serious crimes, Sheinbaum said, “homicide is homicide” with no reclassification taking place. Figueroa added that the crime-classification methodology used by state prosecutors is public and was updated this year for greater transparency.

Why today’s mañanera matters

Homicide data for the month of June and the first six months of 2026 were presented at President Claudia Sheinbaum’s Tuesday morning press conference.

The mañanera was significant as the data showed that the security situation in Mexico has significantly improved in 2026. The government has attributed the reduction in homicides and other crimes to the success of its security strategy, which is based on four central tenets, including the strengthening of intelligence and investigative practices and a bolstering of the National Guard, the federal security force that was established in 2019.

On Tuesday morning, Sheinbaum dismissed claims that a “truce” between criminal organizations while Mexico was co-hosting the FIFA men’s World Cup was the reason why homicides declined in June.

Today’s mañanera was also important as the president responded directly to claims that the homicide numbers presented by the federal government on a monthly basis — numbers that come from Mexico’s 32 state Attorney General’s Offices — are not accurate.

As Mexico News Daily reported in January, there are concerns that authorities in Mexico’s 32 federal entities are not accurately reporting homicides because they are incorrectly classifying some murders as less serious crimes, as well as claims that the decline in homicides during Sheinbaum’s presidency is related to an increase in disappearances.

Homicides down 48% in June compared to September 2024

National Public Security System chief Marcela Figueroa reported that there was an average of 45.4 homicides per day in Mexico in June, a reduction of 48% compared to September 2024, the final month of Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s presidency.

At the start of the press conference, Sheinbaum noted that there were, on average, 41 fewer homicides per day in June than in September 2024.

Figueroa highlighted that the daily murder rate in June was the lowest of any month since Sheinbaum took office.

She also noted that the homicide rate last month was the lowest of any June in the past 12 years. Compared to June 2025, the reduction in homicides last month was 32.5%.

Homicides decline 30% in first 6 months of 2026 

Figueroa presented data that showed there was an average of 49.7 homicides per day in the first six months of 2026, a 30.1% reduction compared to the same period of last year.

The last time the daily homicide rate was lower in the first six months of a year was in 2015.

54% of homicides between January and June committed in just 8 states 

Figueroa reported that 54% of homicides in the first six months of 2026 were committed in eight states. Data she presented showed there was a total of 8,988 homicides in Mexico between January and June.

Fifty-four percent of those murders — 4,835 — were committed in Guanajuato (789 homicides); Baja California (731); Chihuahua (704); Sinaloa (633); México state (533); Guerrero (500); Morelos (498); and Veracruz (447).

The least violent state in terms of homicides was Yucatán, which recorded just 13 homicides in the first six months of the year. There were 420 homicides in Mexico City in the period, making the capital the 10th most violent entity in the country.

The average number of homicides per entity in the first six months of the year was 280.88. The number of homicides in Guanajuato, which has been Mexico’s most violent state for several years, was almost three times higher.

Homicides declined in 29 entities in first 6 months of 2026 

Figueroa reported that homicides declined in annual terms in the first six months of 2026 in 29 of Mexico’s 32 federal entities.

There were reductions above 50% in six states: San Luis Potosí (-81.7%); Zacatecas (-61.8%); Quintana Roo (-60.1%); Nayarit (-59.1%); Guanajuato (-50.9%); and Nuevo León (-50.6%).

The only states where homicides increased in the first six months of 2026 were Oaxaca, Colima and Tlaxcala.

High-impact crimes down 12% in first half of year 

Figueroa reported that there was an average of 452.7 high-impact crimes per day in the first six months of 2026, a 12.1% reduction compared to 2025.

Among the offenses classified as high-impact crimes are homicide, kidnapping, rape, violent robbery and acts of extortion.

Almost 60,000 arrests since Sheinbaum took office 

Security Minister Omar García Harfuch presented data that showed that 59,582 people were arrested for allegedly committing high-impact crimes between Oct. 1, 2024 — the day Sheinbaum was sworn in as president — and June 30, 2026.

The data also showed that in the same period, authorities:

• Confiscated 31,366 firearms.
• Seized 498.98 tonnes of drugs.
• Dismantled 2,627 clandestine drug laboratories.

García Harfuch said that seizures of narcotics stop “millions of doses of drugs” from reaching the streets and have a “direct impact” on criminal organizations’ “financing sources.”

The security minister also reported that 1,674 extortionists were detained between July 2025 — the month in which a new national strategy against extortion was implemented — and June 2026.

The arrests took place in 24 of Mexico’s 32 federal entities.

Sheinbaum: Decline in homicides in June is not due to the World Cup 

A reporter asked the president whether a kind of World Cup “truce” was the reason why homicides declined in June.

“Experts say there are truces [between criminal groups] at times like Christmas and Mother’s Day,” the reporter said.

Sheinbaum countered that the decline in homicides in June is the continuation of a downward trend.

“If there had been a spectacular fall [in homicides] in one month in particular, it could be associated with … a distinctive characteristic,” she said.

While she didn’t attribute the decline in homicides in June to the staging of World Cup matches in Mexico, she did say that the “takeover of public space” by citizens (watching soccer matches and celebrating Mexico’s victories) “contributes to the decline in insecurity.”

However, the decline in homicides in June is “part of a trend” that began when the current government took office, Sheinbaum said.

Sheinbaum: There is no manipulation of homicide figures 

A reporter asked the president about the view of some security experts that Mexico’s homicide figures are not accurate because some murders are classified as other less serious crimes.

“Homicide is homicide, there is no manipulation. It’s not that there are crimes that go from [being classified as] one crime to another crime,” Sheinbaum said.

Figueroa subsequently said that the methodology that state Attorney General’s Offices are required to follow when classifying crimes is “very clear” and “public.”

“The methodology was updated this year so that it is even more transparent than it was,” she said.

By Mexico News Daily chief staff writer Peter Davies (peter.davies@mexiconewsdaily.com)