The number of Mexicans visiting the United States has fallen for the first time in four years, according to data from the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC), with the 668,840 Mexican tourists arriving in the U.S. by plane or boat between January and March representing a 7.2% decrease from the first quarter (Q1) of 2024. 

There was a 19% decline in business visitors and a 5.1% fall in leisure tourists, according to the DOC. 

The number of European visitors to the U.S. also decreased by around 7%. This coincides with media reports of some European visitors being detained and deported at U.S. borders. 

In March alone, tourist arrivals to the U.S. from Mexico fell by 23%. During that same month, visitors to the U.S. from Germany fell by an estimated 28%; from Ireland, 26%; from Spain, 24%; from South Korea, 14.5%; from the United Kingdom, 14%; and from France, 8%.

U.S. President Trump’s hostility to foreign visitors has been widely blamed for the decrease in tourism.

In an April press conference, a reporter asked Trump why he thought fewer people were traveling to the U.S., referencing the “steep drop-off” in international travel to the country.

“It’s not a big deal,” Trump replied.

Gerardo Herrera, an academic at Mexico’s Iberoamericana University, explained, “There is a widespread belief that if you travel to the United States right now, you may encounter surprises, such as being denied entry or having your visa canceled.”

A shift in tourist destinations

The number of visitors from Canada to the U.S. fell by around 5% in Q1, compared to the same period last year. 

Francisco Madrid, Anáhuac University Cancún’s director of the Sustainable Tourism Advanced Research Center (STARC), believes the animosity caused by the trade war is deterring people from visiting the U.S. 

“Maybe Trump thinks it’s funny to say he can annex a country like Canada, but not for the Canadians,” Madrid said. “And part of this behavior is deciding not to go to that country.” 

The tariffs are creating instability in the U.S. and making prices unpredictable, according to the travel marketing company Sojern.

“Additionally, we’re seeing some policies regarding visas and deportations affecting the market, particularly in cross-border markets like Canada and Mexico,” Sojern’s Nick Beaulieu said.

Meanwhile, interest in travel to Mexico has risen, as it has all year, with international flight bookings from Canada to Mexico increasing by 6% in Q1, compared to the same period last year. 

Canadian tourist arrivals had previously risen by 14.5% between 2018 and 2023, according to Mexico’s Tourism Ministry.

Mexico typically sees higher visitor traffic from Canada during Canada’s cold winter months, but whether the trend of increased Canadian visitation continues into the summer remains to be seen.

There could be between a 5% and 8% increase in tourism from Canada to the Mexican Caribbean, according to Rodrigo de la Peña Segura, president of the Cancún, Puerto Morelos and Isla Mujeres Hotel Association.

“The Canadian market is really going to rebound significantly for us,” he said.

A similar trend is expected from European visitors, according to Peña Segura.

With reports from El Sol de México, El Imparcial, El Heraldo de México Quintana Roo, Associated Press, MSNBC and BBC