Making predictions is a dangerous business, but as I said at the beginning of the year when I made them, I was going to take the risk and go out on a limb to make them. I guess how I did depends on if you are a fan of baseball or basketball. If I am measured in terms of baseball hitting percentages, I did pretty well. If I am measured in terms of basketball free throw percentages, I would be benched!
With that said, the following is a scorecard of my predictions versus the actual results:
Prediction: The nearshoring boom will continue to accelerate and Mexico will receive a record amount of foreign direct investment
Result: CORRECT!
Mexico is on track to receive a record amount of foreign direct investment, but the rate did not grow as fast as many hoped and the vast majority of the investment was not new money coming into the country but rather reinvestment. Definitely something to keep an eye on in 2025. Read more below:
Did Mexico really ‘miss the nearshoring boom’? A perspective from our CEO
Prediction: One, if not two, Chinese auto companies will announce massive plant investments in Mexico.
Result: INCORRECT!
Multiple large Chinese companies, including BYD and others, announced that announcements of plants would be coming, but they have not yet happened. Trump’s recent presidential victory seems likely to have stalled these plans indefinitely.
Prediction: Increased discussion and tension will arise among USMCA partners (United States, Canada, Mexico) over the rapidly increasing Chinese investment and imports into Mexico.
Result: CORRECT!
Both Canada and the United States have been piling on the threats to Mexico over Chinese investments and imports, with several Canadian provincial ministers even going so far as to say that the USMCA should be updated and Mexico should be cut out of the agreement. To try to bring some sanity and facts to the discussion, Mexico’s Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard and President Sheinbaum both presented actual data on Chinese investment and imports into Mexico to try to lower tensions.
Prediction: The NBA will confirm that an expansion team will come to Mexico City.
The result: INCORRECT!
The NBA has not yet confirmed a team in Mexico City, but has continued to express interest in the possibility. It will likely happen at some point, but will take time to come to fruition.
Prediction: Claudia Sheinbaum will win the presidential election in a landslide.
The result: CORRECT!
Dr. Sheinbaum did in fact win in a landslide.
Claudia Sheinbaum is elected the first female president of Mexico
Prediction: The Mexican peso will not move significantly in reaction to the election results (as it often does).
The result: INCORRECT!
The peso has weakened by nearly 20% since the election and is now back where it was several years ago. Compared to previous elections, this was actually not a large move (especially given the huge appreciation of the peso in the year leading up to the election), but the move was significant nonetheless.
Prediction: The Maya Train project will be more positively viewed by the end of the year and increasingly be recognized as a strategically important investment for the region.
Result: I think it is still too early to tell on this one.
The entire train network was just completed a few weeks ago, and emotions are still high on both sides. 2025 will be a key year to answer this question.
Prediction: The Tulum airport will receive a surprisingly high number of new flights and become a major flight destination.
The result: CORRECT!
Tulum’s airport just hit its one-year anniversary with more traffic than predicted, and new direct flights to both Germany and Colombia were recently announced.
Coatzacoalcos-Palenque stretch of Interoceanic Train to start operations
Prediction: The Interoceanic Train crossing the Isthmus of Tehuantepec will get increased interest and attention due to continued problems with the Panama Canal.
The result: This is another one that seems to be in the “too early to tell” category.
Trump’s recent suggestion that the U.S. take over the Panama Canal again could help or hurt Mexico’s cause…
Prediction: Mexico will become an increasingly important topic in the upcoming U.S. elections. Issues like immigration, fentanyl and drug cartels will cause some candidates to threaten significant actions against the country.
The result: CORRECT!
A significant part of Trump’s winning message was focused on what he would do on immigration, drug cartels and migrants from Mexico.
Prediction: Despite the campaign rhetoric, Mexico will increase its lead and share as the largest trading partner of the United States.
The result: CORRECT!
Mexico increased its exports to the U.S. and increased its share as the largest trading partner to now nearly 16% — ahead of Canada and with China now in third place.
Prediction: Tesla will accelerate its plant investment in Monterrey.
The result: INCORRECT!
Tesla, blaming an uncertain electric vehicle market and the threat of tariffs, put an indefinite pause on the project to the dismay of many in the region.
Prediction: The number of U.S. and Canadian citizens moving to Mexico will continue to accelerate.
The result: Too early to tell.
I have not yet seen actual figures, but all anecdotal evidence I see and hear tells me that the numbers continue to increase.
Prediction: A record number of international tourists will come to Mexico.
The result: CORRECT!
Mexico has seen record numbers of international tourists and tourist spending this year.
International tourism spending up 5% through October, surpassing US $24 billion
Prediction: The Bank of Mexico will finally begin to lower interest rates in the first quarter of the year, which should weaken the peso gradually.
The result: CORRECT!
Rates were cut in March and for a total of five times this year, putting the current rate at 10%. The peso has weakened (albeit not gradually).
Prediction: The Mexican peso will end the year above 18 to the US dollar.
The result: CORRECT!
Although it seems like a no-brainer prediction now, let’s remember that it was at 16.3 not too long ago. The current rate is near 20.
Prediction: Mexico will end 2024 as the 10th largest economy in the world (moving up 2 places from 2023 and 4 places from 2022).
The result: Too early to tell, but I am confident in giving myself an INCORRECT on this one due to Mexico’s low GDP growth this year.
The economy underperformed its potential growth rate yet again, and next year’s forecasts are being revised downward by just about everyone.
So in summary, I had 9 correct predictions, 5 incorrect and 3 that are still too early to tell. Given that 2024 had increased volatility due to being an election year in the United States and Canada, I think I did okay, but with definite room for improvement.
How did 2024 play out for Mexico versus your expectations? What predictions did you make that were correct or incorrect?
Please share your thoughts and comments in the comments section and stay tuned for my Mexico Predictions for 2025 in my first column of the new year.
Travis Bembenek is the CEO of Mexico News Daily and has been living, working or playing in Mexico for nearly 30 years.
Very decent results in the tough game of predicting the future. I’m interested in reading your 2025 predictions and the thinking supporting them. I’m bullish on Mexico, though the first half of 2025 will likely be bumpy while the government adjusts to Trump (falls in line.) Trump is a fan of Mexico, evidenced by the USMCA, which benefitted Mexico a lot (just look at the auto sector breaking record after record, due in large part to the content requirements moving in Mexico’s favour and away from Asia.) Trump is not a fan of China (the big loser of the USMCA) and Mexico will benefit from Trump’s continued assault on China’s predatory business practices. The future looks bright for Mexico 😎
I’m with you. I think Mexico’s future looks very bright.. Like their minister of economy said, “Mexico is not going to shoot itself in the foot,” regarding near shoreing. It may slow down a bit, which is a good thing it as it digests its gains., but for the next 20 years or so we should see continued nearshoring commitments, expansións, & new spending.
It’s a great place to live, and am very excited about what’s going to transpire in Mexico over the next 6 years
It really is a great place to live. I’m in Mexico City—around 20% of my time and looking to increase that in 2025. When I’m in Mexico City I always have this slight smile to big grin on my face. The people are authentic and warm and the place is so alive, bustling with entrepreneurialism. I don’t even speak Spanish and I feel like I’m home.
I have been working and living in Mexico City for several years now, and I have also been a subscriber for just as many years. I really look forward everyday to receive your emails. Great job guys!
Not to be picky but 2024 was not an election year in Canada but 2025 is. It setting up to be quite a year with the liberals, conservatives and Trump in the mix!
The biggest news is that Mexico is undergoing a massive Transformation. Battling corruption was the main emphasis, this in turn has helped the country’s economy and “bien estar” of its vast population.
What I see, that tempers my optimism, is the reluctance of Mexicans to invest in Mexico. I see capital flight, not investment. Our Mexican friends are selling here, if they can, and buying in the US or Europe. I see the majority of buildings in Polanco with apartment for sale signs and in even higher end neighborhoods, like Lomas, a huge increase in homes for sale. Our Mexican friends send their children to American and European universities and none return after graduating. Don’t let the good housing market that you have in San Miguel de Allende mis-lead you, the exact opposite is true here in Mexico City.
I’d like to see some data on this, though I realize that the Mexico City (all over Mexico I believe) real estate market is inefficient and highly fragmented, so getting listings and sales data over time might be tough. My own anecdotes of Mexican friends is the opposite. One 30-something lived in California for five years, masters at Stanford (STEM, not gender studies—pheww!) but came back to CDMX 3 years ago to work in the family business. The wokeness in the US drove him nuts (and he’s gay, so that wasn’t the issue.) Another went to work in Chicago at the beginning of this year but after 5 or 6 months couldn’t stand it and came back to CDMX. And a third has lived in Montreal for 20 years and is plotting his return to CDMX to get away from the lefty/woke high tax clown show that Canada has become. It’d be good if we had some data on absorption rates over time. That’d make a good article from our MND friends 😉 😁
I agree, hard data for real estate is hard to come by in Mexico. I only know what our clients and friends are doing here in CDMX. They don’t share the author’s optimism, they have, or are working on an exit strategy.
Cartels and corrupt law enforcement will continue to demoralize Mexicans. Can’t even start a successful business without getting a demand for protection money. Mexico has much potential but it will never be realized until law and order is established. Nearshoring is a 2 edged sword. Not sure it’s smart to invest so much in productive capacity for American consumption. Better to build a stable Mexican economy for Mexicans.
I wholeheartedly sgree.
Very true Jim, and I am not saying that there isn’t a problem, but the cartel activity and corruption is limited and/or regional. For example, I have a Mexican friend who has run three retail outlets in Vallarta for 20+ years. Not once has he been robbed, broken into, held up or asked for protection money from anyone (I was surprised.) For comparison, I own commercial space in Montreal and have been broken into three times in that same 20 years. That same Vallarta guy’s family also owns a farm in Jalisco and they have never been shaken down for anything by anyone and same for another friend of mine whose family farm onions in, I think it’s Michoacan.
Thank you Travis for your rational and objective study of your original predictions for 2024. The journalism of your newsletter, Mexico News Daily, is exemplary. More media should follow your lead.
Thank you for sharing your predictions Travis and revisiting those predictions. I enjoy reading and learning from Mexico News Daily. Your team does an outstanding job.
I can’t speak to mainland Mexio in regards to the real estate market. However, in the state of Baja California there is alot of new construction going on along the Tijuana Ensenada toll road from Playas de Tijuana south to Ensenada as well as in Ensenada. The area I live in just titled 180 new lots. Tijuana is in the process of building a new highway deck above the current highway adjacent to the border. Also, Tijuana is building an intercity freeway. There is an Ensenada Expats facebook page that illustrates the amount of people inquiring or moving to the area. Many of the people are from the US (lots from California, Arizona and Texas) as well as other countries.
In reference to the market area’s Lomas, Sante Fe, Polanco and surrounding areas; it is my opinion that any time you reference young people going to college that tells me the neighborhoods residents are aging.
With the ageing process in neighborhoods comes downsizing of properties, changing neighborhood environments (like traffic) unfortunate deaths and financial issues (etc). So, I am not sure without doing an in depth study why you see all the selling signs. This opinion is based on 30+ years of selling real estate.
I agree and respect your expertise. I suspect that a lot of Mexicans want to sell while the demand from foreigners is high.
We will know there is economic progress when COSTCO OPENS a location in Guerrero!!!!!!
Good insight!. And they will be filled with MEXICANS just like in Guad., buying high spec products at modest prices. Mexicans are buying for their businesses and homes.
Pretty good track record here in the prediction department.
Mexico continues to have only very anemic growth despite all its potential. Three things are at the root of this IMO. First, government control has led to high energy prices and spotty delivery, particularly for electricity.
Second, the infrastructure simply can’t support a first world economy. In our 16 years here for example, with the exception of very pricey commerce inhibiting toll roads the overall road system has continued to decline and that accelerated due to Morena’s 40 percent cuts in already inadequate Federal road budgets. Modern economies run on good road and rail and Mexico has neither and doesn’t seem to understand the necessity of both.
Third, when you stack a near punitive income tax structure on a high VAT Mexicans are heavily taxed and get little for their money besides bloated payrolls and corruption. Investment in this country suffers as a result despite the young and hard working work force.
This country is like a poster child for great unrealized potential due mainly to bad government. Sad to see.