Monday, July 7, 2025

Incoming cold front 15 to bring frost and heavy rain to 6 states

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Breathtaking view of Popocatépetl and Iztaccíhuatl volcanoes covered in snow.
Forecasters also predict that an Isolated High-Level Depression, commonly known as DANA in Spanish, will form this week, bringing heavy clouds to Mexico's central region. (Margarito Pérez Retana/Cuartoscuro)

Cold front No. 15, backed by a polar air mass and a low-pressure channel, will bring heavy rain and frost to northern, northeast and eastern Mexico on Wednesday. 

The National Meteorological Service (SMN) also forecasts strong wind gusts above 50 kilometers per hour in parts of Oaxaca, Chiapas, Sonora, Chihuahua and Coahuila. Here’s the forecast for today and tomorrow.

Mexico rain forecast for Wednesday and Thursday

Very heavy rainfall (50 to 70 millimeters): San Luis Potosí, Hidalgo, Puebla and Veracruz. 

Heavy rainfall (25 to 50 mm): Tamaulipas, Oaxaca, Chiapas, Tabasco and Quintana Roo.

Scattered rainfall (5 to 25 mm): Coahuila, Nuevo León, Querétaro, Guanajuato, Campeche and Yucatán.

Showers (0.1 a 5 mm): Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, Zacatecas, Guerrero, México state, Mexico City and Tlaxcala.

Rainfall may be accompanied by thunderstorms and strong bursts of wind. Weather authorities have warned residents that rainfall may lead to rising levels in rivers and streams, potentially causing landslides, puddles and flooding in low-lying areas of the affected states.  

Forecasters also predict the formation of an Isolated High-Level Depression, commonly known by the acronym DANA in Spanish. This weather phenomenon is expected to develop between Wednesday and Thursday, increasing cloudiness across the central-southern region. 

Mexico temperature forecast by region for Wednesday and Thursday

Minimum temperatures of -15 to -10 degrees Celsius and frost: mountainous areas of Durango and Chihuahua.

Minimum temperatures of -10 to -5°C and frost: mountainous areas of México state.

Minimum temperatures of -5 to 0°C and frost: mountainous areas of Baja California, Sonora, Zacatecas, Michoacán, Tlaxcala, Puebla and Hidalgo. 

Minimum temperatures of 0 to 5°C: mountainous areas of Baja California Sur, Coahuila, San Luis Potosí, Sinaloa, Nayarit, Aguascalientes, Jalisco, Guanajuato, Querétaro, Mexico City, Morelos, Veracruz and Oaxaca. 

The associated polar air mass will bring cold to freezing weather throughout the rest of the week, with frost possible during the early morning hours, along with fog banks at dawn. 

Weather authorities advised residents to stay informed about weather conditions in their areas and to take necessary measures to ensure their warmth and safety.  

With reports from Meteored

A German in San Miguel de Allende

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Author Sarah Pankow
Sarah Pankow has spent nearly a decade in San Miguel. Here's all the reasons she loves life in the city. (Sarah Pankow)

When I first came to San Miguel de Allende in 2013, most immigrants were retired Americans; a decade on, the city is home to many young families with children, as well as more European immigrants. As a result, the vibe of the city and its lifestyle have changed.

What stands out most in San Miguel is people’s hospitality and friendliness, even towards children. I love how welcome my kids are in many restaurants and public spaces. A lot of people are happy to see them and show their joy and affection openly. I certainly can’t say the same about my home city of Hamburg in Germany.

Hamburg Germany, photo credit Alchemist-hp, CC-BY-SA 3.0
The city of Hamburg, Germany, is a far cry from San Miguel de Allende. (Wikimedia Commons)

In Germany, people are noticeably different in the summertime: we’re more relaxed and take time for the finer things in life. In Mexico, that approach is present all year long. Firstly, because the weather makes it possible, but also because people infect each other with their joie de vivre. There is always something to celebrate and rarely a really good excuse not to take part. You get invited to all the birthdays of even the most distant relatives and the celebrations usually go on for several days. 

Parents are also welcome at children’s birthdays, where beer and wine are served next to soft drinks. You are in the right place in Mexico if you like to celebrate. Even if it’s “just” a meal with friends, there’s tequila as an aperitif, and the bottle rarely makes it through the night. Of course, alcohol is not a must. You can enjoy life late at night with tacos from a stall on the street corner just as much as with a delicious drink at an expensive rooftop bar. Barbecues are held as early as January and garden parties take place all year round. 

However, that doesn’t mean that people are lazy. On the contrary, I have met so many highly motivated, hard-working people who are dedicated precisely because they enjoy their time off. Working hours are productive and efficient. They usually start after a morning workout and are interrupted by a meal with the family. I like this central role that the family plays and am convinced that a large part of the quality of life depends on it. My life as a mother of three is also greatly enhanced by the fact that we can afford a housekeeper here in Mexico. She gives me the freedom to take my children to the playground in the afternoon after work instead of having to do the household chores. I am grateful for the valuable time I get with them. 

Of course, not everything is great. As a German, the poor condition of the roads and the chaotic traffic bother me. The main thing I miss about San Miguel de Allende is the freedom of being able to reach everything on foot. I never needed a car in Hamburg. I could reach all my destinations either on foot or by bike. If necessary, by bus and train. 

San Miguel skyline
San Miguel de Allende has repeatedly been named the world’s best small city by Travel + Leisure magazine and it’s not hard to see why. (Jillian Kim/Unsplash)

Here in San Miguel, I am totally dependent on my car. Especially with children, I would welcome the opportunity to simply walk out the front door and go to a park or a playground. However, apart from the fact that most things are too far away, there are no decent footpaths. I can walk on the streets on my own, although of course that’s not entirely safe, but with a baby carriage it’s an odyssey. If you want to ride a bike or go for a walk, you first have to drive to a suitable place, just like in the United States. It’s very different in Germany. Once you’re there, however, it’s beautiful.

Something that has changed in the last couple of years, is the very welcome presence of good coffee shops. Though it might be intuitive to think that Mexico, a coffee producing country, should be full of amazing cafes serving delicious brews, that’s not often the case; it’s true that Mexican coffee beans are exceptional, but they’re mostly grown for export. Luckily, the global trend of meeting and working in coffee shops has arrived in San Miguel too. Nowadays you can find aromatic lattes and intense flat whites in many corners of the city.

Wherever I’ve lived, I’ve always missed German bread. True to form, I was quite disappointed by the bread in San Miguel, and turned to local tortillas instead. I am absolutely in love with the exceptional quality of panaderías popping up everywhere in town. Sourdough helped make people eat bread again, even though real Mexicans still leave out the migajas. 

Last but not least, Germans are huge fans of sitting outside, and San Miguel’s spectacular rooftop terraces, paired with the ideal climate of this stunning city in the heart of Mexico, are probably the biggest reason to settle down here — with or without kids.

Sarah Pankow was born in Hamburg, Germany and settled down in San Miguel de Allende with her family after having lived in 7 different countries all over the globe. She writes, translates and teaches German and literary translation.

Add a spark of Mexican joy to your good old pork chops with apple chipotle purée

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A plate of pork chops
Some Roman cook figured out that roasting pork with apples wasn’t just a matter of convenience — it was delicious. Then Stephen Randall went and got involved. (Canva)

Pork and apples: two unlikely companions whose history reads like an epic spanning centuries, a tale of necessity, taste and a bit of serendipity. It all starts in medieval Europe, where pigs roamed freely in apple orchards, gobbling up fallen fruit like the cute oinking vacuums they are. The apple-infused pork wasn’t just a happy accident; it was efficiency at its finest, a lesson from nature herself: waste not, want not. Or as the pigs might say, when life gives you apples, eat them.

By the time the 9th-century Roman cookbook “Apicius” rolled around, some genius had already figured out that roasting pork with apples wasn’t just a matter of convenience — it was delicious. Imagine an empire in decline finding comfort in this seasonal combo as the world crumbled around it. If civilization was going to burn, at least they’d have a full stomach.

Pro tip: get your ingredients at your local market for freshness. (Miranda Garside/Unsplash)

Fast forward to the 18th century and Hannah Glasse, a no-nonsense Englishwoman with a quill and a cookbook. In her wildly popular “The Art of Cookery Made Plain and Easy”, Glasse recommends serving roast pork with “some good apple sauce.” By this point, apples had gone from incidental snack to indispensable sidekick.

Today, we still serve pork with apples because it works. It’s the kind of pairing that reminds us that life’s contrasts are where beauty lives. Sweet and savory, humble and elegant, old-fashioned and somehow always new. When you serve pork chops with apple chipotle purée, the pair is even newer. This recipe combines smoky, spicy chipotle with the sweetness of apples for a bold and flavorful dish. The Mexican elements elevate a classic pairing of pork and apples to a whole new sweet, spicy, porky level.

Chipotle Apple Sauce with a lil Pork Chop #food #shorts

Pork chops with apple chipotle purée

Ingredients

For the pork chops
  • 4 bone-in pork chops (about 1 inch thick)
  • 2 tbsp olive oil
  • 1 tsp smoked paprika
  • 1 tsp ground cumin
  • 1 tsp garlic powder
  • Salt and black pepper to taste
For the apple chipotle purée
  • 3 medium apples (Granny Smith or Honeycrisp), peeled, cored and chopped
  • 1 chipotle pepper in adobo sauce (add more for extra heat)
  • ¼ cup orange juice
  • 1 tbsp honey (or agave syrup)
  • 1 tsp ground cinnamon
  • ¼ tsp ground cloves
  • 1 tbsp butter
  • Pinch of salt
For garnish
  • Fresh cilantro, chopped
  • Lime wedges

Instructions

1. In a small bowl, mix smoked paprika, cumin, garlic powder, salt and pepper. Rub the spice blend generously onto both sides of the pork chops.

  1. Heat olive oil in a large skillet over medium-high heat. Sear the pork chops for about 3-4 minutes per side, until golden brown.
  2. Reduce heat to medium, cover the skillet and cook for an additional 5-7 minutes, or until the internal temperature reaches 145 F (63 C). Remove from heat and let rest.
  3. In a saucepan, melt butter over medium heat. Add the chopped apples and cook for 3-5 minutes, stirring occasionally.
  4. Stir in the chipotle pepper, orange juice, honey, cinnamon, cloves and a pinch of salt. Cover and simmer for 10-15 minutes, until the apples are soft.
  5. Transfer the mixture to a blender or use an immersion blender to purée until smooth. Adjust seasoning to taste, adding more chipotle if you want it spicier.
  6. To assemble, spoon a generous amount of apple chipotle purée onto each plate. Place a pork chop on top of the purée.
  7. Garnish with fresh cilantro and a squeeze of lime juice for brightness.

Serving suggestions

Pair this dish with Mexican rice, a side of charred corn with cotija cheese, or a crisp jicama and cucumber salad for a complete feast. Let me know what you think in the comments!

Stephen Randall has lived in Mexico since 2018 by way of Kentucky, and before that, Germany. He’s an enthusiastic amateur chef who takes inspiration from many different cuisines, with favorites including Mexican and Mediterranean.

Mexico to offer citizens legal help in event of mass deportations: Tuesday’s mañanera recapped

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Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum at her daily press conference in front of the presidential podium
President Claudia Sheinbaum said that her interior minister met with governors of Mexico's border states to discuss plans for a potential onslaught of returning Mexicans. (Galo Cañas Rodríguez/Cuartoscuro)

Tuesday marked exactly 11 weeks since Claudia Sheinbaum was sworn in as Mexico’s first female president.

In just under five weeks, Donald Trump will commence his second term as United States president, which could mark the beginning of a significantly different relationship between the U.S. and its southern neighbor.

Mexico's Defense Minister Ricardo Trevilla standing at a podium at President Sheinbaum's daily press conference, speaking to reporters. He has a gray-haired receding hairline, is dressed in military fatigues, and wears wire-rimmed glasses.
Defense Minister Ricardo Trevilla presented a semiweekly update on Mexico’s security situation at the president’s daily press conference on Tuesday. (Galo Cañas Rodríguez/Cuartoscuro)

At her morning press conference on Tuesday, Sheinbaum responded to one question about the “Trump wall” and another about the president-elect’s mass deportation plans.

Earlier in the president’s mañanera, security officials provided a security update.

‘We have to build bridges, not walls’

A reporter noted that Trump spoke about the border wall at a press conference on Monday. The reporter subsequently put the following question to Sheinbaum:

“Is a bigger wall or a wall that separates the United States from Mexico the solution to contain migratory flows, or does more need to be done?”

In response, Sheinbaum noted that ex-president Andrés Manuel López Obrador “revealed right here” during one of his mañaneras that while speaking with Trump on a call he told the former United States president that migrants and drugs will continue to enter the U.S. from Mexico even with the presence of a wall between the two countries.

A group of migrants, mostly men, line up in front of two border agents in green uniforms near the border wall on June 6, two days after Biden issued the executive order.
On the Mexican side of the Mexico-U.S. border wall in Tijuana. (Omar Martínez/Cuartoscuro)

“He showed him a photograph of a tunnel where drugs and migrants went through,” she said.

“We’ve always been of the idea that we have to build bridges, not walls,” Sheinbaum continued.

“And the most humane and effective solution to migration is to attend to the causes … so that people don’t have to migrate out of necessity. That will always be our vision,” she said.

Preparations continue for possible mass deportations from US 

Sheinbaum told reporters that the government is “working in case there are deportations” to Mexico of large numbers of people currently living in the United States.

Trump has pledged to carry out “the largest deportation operation in American history.”

Sheinbaum said that the government will be prepared to “welcome” Mexicans who are deported. She noted that Interior Minister Rosa Icela Rodríguez on Monday held a Zoom meeting with governors of border states to discuss Mexico’s plans.

“We’re collaborating, and in due course, the strategy will be presented,” Sheinbaum said.

She also said that the government is “strengthening” its consulates in the United States so that they are able to provide better legal support to Mexican immigrants.

Sheinbaum said earlier this month that the federal government would work with states to prepare for possible mass deportations of Mexicans from the U.S.

Mexico's Interior Minister Rosa Icela Rodríguez
Interior Minister Rosa Icela Rodríguez, seen here during the government’s security report on Tuesday, met with governors of Mexico’s northern states Monday to discuss plans for a possible influx of returning migrants to Mexico. (Galo Cañas Rodríguez/Cuartoscuro)

“We hope that it doesn’t happen, but if it does happen, we’ll be prepared to welcome them,” she said Dec. 5.

Almost 7,000 people arrested for ‘high-impact crimes’ since Sheinbaum took office 

During the government’s fortnightly security update, Security Minister Omar García Harfuch highlighted that 6,745 people have been arrested for “high-impact crimes” such as murder and kidnapping since Sheinbaum was sworn in as president on Oct. 1.

He said that 6.1 tonnes of drugs and more than 3,000 firearms have been seized in the same period.

“These seizures mean less violence in the streets and less doses of drugs that harm the health of millions of young people,” García said.

The security minister also said that the federal government has ramped up collaboration  with its state counterparts in order to combat crime more effectively and “arrest generators of violence.”

Daily homicide rate down 6.9% this year 

Marcela Figueroa Franco, head of the National Public Security System, presented data that showed there was an average of 82.3 homicide victims per day in Mexico between Jan. 1 and Dec. 16.

The daily rate represents a 6.9% decrease compared to 2023 and an 18.1% decline compared to 2018, during which Enrique Peña Nieto was president for the first 11 months of the year.

Figueroa also presented data that showed there were 28,883 homicides between Jan. 1 and Dec. 16.

Guanajuato recorded the highest number of murders in the period followed by Baja California, México state, Chihuahua, Jalisco, Guerrero and Nuevo León. Just under 50% of all homicides this year occurred in those seven states.

By Mexico News Daily chief staff writer Peter Davies ([email protected])

President Sheinbaum hosts Colombian leader Gustavo Petro at National Palace

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Colombian President Gustavo Petro sits across from Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum in a room in Mexico's National Palace. Each have next to them small brass stands holding a small flag of each other's country. They are smiling and in mid conversation.
The visit between President Claudia Sheinbaum and Colombia's President Petro was not a formal state visit, Sheinbaum told reporters, but merely an opportunity to meet and discuss topics like regional integration. (Presidencia/Cuartoscuro)

Migration, regional integration and the importance of “unity between progressive governments” were among the issues Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Colombian President Gustavo Petro spoke about at a meeting in Mexico City on Monday.

The two leftist leaders met at the National Palace on Monday morning. It was the third time they’d met in as many months, after Petro traveled to Mexico for Sheinbaum’s inauguration in October and the two presidents participated in the G20 Leaders’ Summit in Brazil last month.

This video published by Sheinbaum’s Twitter account Monday, doesn’t show any of the two leaders’ discussion but showed the relative informality of their visit, compared to formal state visits by world leaders.

“We spoke with the president of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, about the importance of unity between progressive governments, as well as the unity of Latin America and the Caribbean,” Sheinbaum wrote on social media on Monday in a post that included a video clip that demonstrated considerable warmth between the two presidents.

Petro’s office said in a statement that the Colombian president’s “official visit” to Mexico was aimed at strengthening “cooperation between both countries on historical, migratory and regional integration issues.”

During their meeting on Monday, the commitment of both Petro and Sheinbaum to “a joint agenda that promotes sustainability, social justice and Latin American integration” stood out, the president’s office said.

The statement also highlighted that the two presidents reached an agreement to “reactivate the search for the remains of the general José María Melo , the only Indigenous president of Colombia and a key figure in the common history of both countries.”

Melo was killed in Chiapas during Mexico’s 19th-century Reform War.

Migration and regional integration discussed 

Dozens of people holding backpacks and belongings walk down a paved road in bright sun, with a forest in the background
A caravan of migrants walks through Huixtla, Chiapas, near the border with Guatemala. (Damián Sánchez/Cuartoscuro)

Petro’s office said that the Colombian and Mexican governments also agreed to “strengthen the exchange of information in order to guarantee dignified treatment of Colombians in transit in Mexico.”

The statement said there have been “reports of bad treatment” of Colombian nationals in Mexico airports in the past.

Petro’s office said that the two governments also agreed that the issue of migration “must be addressed with a focus on human rights and regional solidarity.”

Millions of Venezuelans have migrated to Colombia due to the dire situation in their own country, while people from all over the world — especially citizens of certain Latin American countries — travel through Mexico en route to the United States.

The office of the Colombian president said that Petro, president since 2022, and Sheinbaum also “confirmed their commitment” to Latin American integration, “highlighting the importance of forging strategic alliances in the face of global challenges.”

The meeting between the two presidents in Mexico City “reaffirms the will” of the Colombian and Mexican governments to “work for a more united, fair and prosperous continent,” Petro’s office said.

At her morning press conference on Tuesday, Sheinbaum said that “the progressive governments of Latin America” ​​— those she cited included the governments of Chile, Brazil and Guatemala — have “a lot of things in common.”

“…And beyond the affinity of the progressive governments, we believe that unity with Latin America on many issues is very important,” she said.

“In fact, our vision is that the trade agreement between the United States, Canada and Mexico should be expanded in many senses toward the south, because that would make us, as a continent, an economic power far above any other region of the world,” Sheinbaum said.

“That is our vision. The [former] president López Obrador spoke about it during his time [in office], I spoke about it when I was sworn in and [more] recently as well. This is the vision we have,” she said.

Sheinbaum also clarified that Petro’s visit to Mexico wasn’t “a state visit.”

“It was a visit of a president, but it didn’t have all the protocols of a state visit,” she said.

When a reporter suggested that it was a meeting between two friends, Sheinbaum said that it was, in fact, between two presidents.

Petro said on Sept. 30, the day before Sheinbaum was sworn in, that Sheinbaum was a member of M-19 , a Colombian urban guerrilla movement that was active in the 1970s and 1980s. The movement has yielded two presidents of Latin American countries, he said, referring to himself and Sheinbaum.

With reports from El Financiero  and El Economista 

Mesnac to invest US $20M in Guanajuato tire manufacturing plant

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A Mesnac factory
The factory will be built in the city of León in the central state of Guanajuato, a premier automotive production location. (Mesnac)

The Chinese industrial engineering company Mesnac will invest US $20 million to build a factory in the state of Guanajuato as part of its strategy to consolidate its presence in North America.

Mesnac has one other facility in North America, an industrial engineering company in Akron, Ohio. 

A Mesnac factory in Akron, Ohio
Mesnac claims it is among the top three companies in its field, thanks to advanced processing equipment and high-standard management systems. (Summit County, OH)

Though Mesnac, a world leader in the production of rubber processing machinery, did not yet reveal any additional details, Chinese financial news publication Yicai Global reported that the plant will be developed and operated by a subsidiary based in Hong Kong.

Industry news site Cluster Industrial speculated that Mesnac views Mexico — with its strategic nearshoring location and thriving automotive industry — as an ideal platform from which to establish a tire factory.

Mesnac has been deeply involved in the tire mold industry for many years and supplies global tire customers with tire mold products with reliable quality and excellent performance, according to Rubber World magazine. On its website, Mesnac claims it is among the top three companies in its field, thanks to advanced processing equipment and high-standard management systems. 

The factory will be built in the city of León in the central state of Guanajuato, a premier automotive production location. Auto factories in Guanajuato boast an annual production in excess of 800,000 vehicles, according to online industry magazine Mexico Business News.

The company also has an affiliate, Sailun Tire Company, located in México state. In March, Sailun announced a joint US $427 million investment to build a factory in Irapuato, Guanajuato, according to Cluster Industrial. Tire Direct, a Mexican tire marketing company based in León, is putting up 49% of the investment.

The new tire company — to be called Aztema Rubber & Tire Manufacturing — is expected to be operational in March 2025.

With reports from Cluster Industrial, Tyre Trends, Forbes México and Rubber World

Kimpton to open hotel and residences in Monterrey

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Image of a luxury hotel in a tropical location, with a rooftop pool with white deck chairs around it, palm trees behind it and buildings in the far left background with wide balconies on each floor, like a hotel.
British hospitality company IHG's new Kimpton boutique luxury hotel and branded residences in Monterrey will open just in time for Monterrey's planned hosting of four games in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. (Kimpton Hotels & Restaurants/Facebook)

The British multinational hospitality company IHG is expanding its presence in Monterrey, unveiling plans this week for a new boutique luxury hotel and branded residences.

Kimpton, IHG Hotels & Resorts’ luxury and lifestyle brand, is coming to the northern city in 2026 just in time for the World Cup. Monterrey will play host to four World Cup matches.

A rendering of what a completed Torre Rise will look like against the nighttime skyline of Monterrey, Mexico.
The hotel will be located in Monterrey’s under-construction Torre Rise, which when finished, is expected to be 475 meters in height, making it the tallest skyscraper in Latin America. This image is a rendering of the unfinished project. (RiseTower/Instagram)

The property will be situated in the still-under-construction skyscraper Torre Rise, expected to be Latin America’s tallest tower, according to GlobalData, a data analytics and consulting company headquartered in London.

Leanne Harwood, Kimpton’s managing director of luxury and lifestyle, spoke to Global Data about growing the company’s presence within Mexico. “Kimpton Monterrey is poised to bring its distinct perspective, refined style and innovative restaurants and bars to this key international market,” Harwood said.

The new hotel will be owned by the local real estate company Grupo Alora and operated by Monterrey-based Marca Hotel Solutions.

Trade industry publication Upgraded Points reported that the Kimpton Monterrey will have 120 guest rooms and suites, plus 60 private residences. The property promises views of Monterrey’s cityscape and the surrounding mountains. Global Data also reported that hotel guests and residents will have exclusive access to the Torre Rise sky deck, a performance center, an elevated park and luxury retail options.

Among the amenities that will be found on site are an indoor pool, sauna, massage treatment rooms, a full-service restaurant and a lobby lounge. Additionally, Kimpton-specific perks like a daily social hour and pet-friendly policies will be featured.

The new hotel will be Kimpton’s sixth property in Mexico. The company has hotels in Mexico City; Todos Santos, Baja California Sur; and Tulum, Quintana Roo. New properties will open soon in Playa del Carmen, Quintana Roo, and in the Polanco neighborhood of Mexico City.

The hospitality design publication Hotel & Resort Design South reported that the 2026 World Cup has encouraged many hotel brands to expand into Monterrey. Tru by Hilton opened its new 120-room Tru by Hilton Monterrey Fundidora in 2023, while Thompson Hotels is building the 150-room luxury Thompson Monterrey which is set to open next year.

With reports from Hospitality Net, Global Data, Upgraded Points and Hotel & Resort Design South

Banxico survey lowers GDP growth forecast to 1.12% in 2025

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Mexico's central bank (Banxico) headquarters, an ornate beige building
Rising inflation could prompt the Bank of Mexico to ease off the rate cuts that have characterized Mexican monetary policy over the past year. (Shutterstock)

Experts polled by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) on Monday revised their GDP growth estimate for 2024 from 1.53% to 1.60%, while lowering the growth forecast for 2025 from 1.20% to 1.12%. 

The estimates are based on results from a survey of 41 private sector specialists. While GDP growth is expected to fall in 2025, they predict it will increase to 1.8% in 2026. 

The slowdown in manufacturing activity came as Mexico seeks to bolster the sector by attracting foreign investment amid the nearshoring trend.
The lower growth outlook for 2025 results from several concerns including political uncertainty — both within Mexico and abroad. (Juan José Estrada Serafín/Cuartoscuro)

The exchange rate

The survey provided several other financial outlooks. The analysts expect to close 2024 with an exchange rate of 20.25 pesos to the United States dollar. They reduced the rate outlook for 2025, from 20.59 to 20.53 pesos, and in 2026, from 21.23 to 21.00 pesos. 

Inflation forecast

The analysts see inflation falling slightly by the end of 2024, from 4.42% to 4.37% for annual headline inflation and 3.69% to 3.6% for underlying inflation. This excludes the prices of volatile goods and services, including agricultural products, energy and government tariffs. 

In 2025, the group anticipates headline inflation will average 3.8% and underlying inflation 3.72%, and in 2026, 3.7% and 3.6%, respectively. While some improvement is expected, projected inflation remains higher than the Banxico target of 3%.

Will the business climate improve or deteriorate?

When asked about the business climate in the next six months, 77% of those surveyed expected it to “get worse,” a slight improvement on the previous response rate of 79%. Meanwhile, 13% predicted it would “stay the same” and 10% said it would “improve.”  

A slight majority — 59% of respondents — said it was a “bad time” to invest in Mexico, compared to 68% in the previous survey; 33% said they were “not sure” and 8% believed it was a “good time.” 

Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard referred to several investment announcements for 2025 in his speech that are neither new nor completely certain.
Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard said recently that FDI in Mexico had reached 35.7 billion dollars through Q3 of 2024. (Andrea Murcia/Cuartoscuro)

FDI outlook

The anticipated foreign direct investment (FDI) for 2024 was revised downwards from previous estimates, from US $37.13 billion to $36.51 billion, which would still be slightly above last year’s sum of $36.06 billion.  

The analysts highlighted several factors impeding Mexico’s economic growth over the next six months: 48% thought governance would hinder growth, 21% mentioned internal economic conditions and 18% said external conditions. 

They also emphasized public insecurity (17%), internal political uncertainty (15%), problems related to the lack of rule of law (11%) and the internal economic situation (9%).

Earlier forecast reductions

In October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its 2024 economic growth forecast for Mexico to 1.5% while projecting even slower growth in 2025, citing capacity limitations and a restrictive monetary policy. 

The World Bank also reduced its economic growth forecasts for Mexico for this year and the next two, citing uncertainty for investors among the reasons for its more pessimistic outlook. 

With reports from El Financiero, Alto Nivel and Forbes

Mexico extradites ex-Gulf Cartel leader Osiel Cárdenas from US

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Former Gulf Cartel leader Osiel Cárdenas Guillén in handcuffs standing in front of the back of a silver SUV. He's facing the camera while two ICE employees in military fatigues are standing with their backs to the camera on either side of Cardenas Guillen. Cardenas is in a parka and black pants. He wears black framed glasses and is mostly bald.
Former Gulf Cartel leader Osiel Cárdenas Guillén, who also founded what later became the Zetas cartel, was transferred by U.S. Homeland Security authorities to Mexican authorities on Monday. (ICE)

Osiel Cárdenas Guillén, a former Gulf Cartel leader and founder of Los Zetas criminal organization, is now in prison in Mexico after he was deported from the United States on Monday.

The 57-year-old convicted drug trafficker was released from jail in the state of Indiana in August after his 25-year sentence was cut short for good behavior.

A middle aged Mexican man in a beige prison at the center of the picture is sitting under restraint inside a military plane by three soldiers in uniforms, helmets and baclavas who sit around him.
Osiel Cárdenas Guillén being transferred to U.S. custody by Mexican authorities in 2007. The former Gulf Cartel leader and Los Zetas founder was released early from a U.S. prison sentence this past August after serving 14 years of a 25-year sentence for money laundering and threatening a U.S. federal agent’s life. (AFI)

However, Cárdenas, nicknamed “El Mata Amigos” (The Friend Killer), didn’t become a free man as he was placed in the custody of United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

On Monday, he was “removed” to Mexico, “where he is wanted for homicide and illegal possession of a firearm,” ICE said in a statement.

“… Officers escorted Cárdenas via the San Diego Port of Entry where he was handed over to Mexican law enforcement without incident,” ICE said.

From Tijuana, the former Gulf Cartel leader was flown to Mexico City and subsequently transferred to the Altiplano federal maximum security prison in México state, according to the El Universal newspaper and other media organizations. He reportedly arrived at the facility from which Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán escaped in 2015 in the late afternoon on Monday.

Cárdenas is accused of a range of offenses, including homicide, drug trafficking, involvement in organized crime, weapon possession, bribery and the use of resources of illicit origin.

El Universal reported that he could be sentenced to up to 730 years in jail if convicted on all charges. The newspaper said that seven federal criminal prosecutions against Cárdenas will be reactivated now that he is in custody in Mexico.

Altiplano federal prison in Mexico
The “Altiplano” federal maximum-security prison in México state, where former Gulf Cartel leader Osiel Cárdenas Guillén is currently in custody. (Crisanta Espinosa Aguilar/Cuartoscuro)

Cárdenas, once head of a ‘mammoth’ drug empire, has spent much of his adult life behind bars 

Cárdenas, a native of the northern border state of Tamaulipas, was once considered one of Mexico’s most powerful drug lords. Unlike some other Mexican cartel kingpins, he wasn’t so successful in evading the long arm of the law.

In August 1992, aged 25 at the time, Cárdenas crossed into Brownsville, Texas, from his native Matamoros and was arrested the same day “for possessing with intent to distribute, approximately two kilograms of cocaine,” ICE said on Monday.

In early 1993 he was convicted of cocaine possession with intent to distribute and was sentenced to 63 months in jail. At the end of 1993, Cárdenas was “transferred to Mexico under the Treaty between the United States and Mexico on the Execution of Penal Sentences,” ICE said.

By the mid 1990s, Cárdenas was out of jail and free to resume his criminal career. He soon became the top leader of the Gulf Cartel (CDG).

During his 1997-2003 leadership of the cartel, “the CDG controlled a mammoth cocaine and marijuana trafficking empire that rivaled those of other storied Mexican organized crime groups, including the Sinaloa Cartel,” according to Insight Crime, a think tank and media organization that focuses on organized crime in the Americas.

Cárdenas was arrested in Tamaulipas in 2003, extradited to the United States in 2007 and in March 2010, he was convicted in a federal court in Houston on drug trafficking and money laundering charges as well as “threatening to assault and murder a federal agent,” according to ICE. He served 14 years of his 25-year sentence.

While leader of the CDG, Cárdenas created Los Zetas in the late 1990s. Los Zetas served as the Gulf Cartel’s armed enforcer wing until it struck out on its own in 2010. The group initially consisted of deserters from an elite unit of the Mexican army.

Los Zetas “professionalized Mexico’s gangland warfare by detonating an arms race and introducing a kind of brutal violence never before seen in the country,” Insight Crime reported earlier this year.

In 2010, Los Zetas murdered 72 migrants — 58 men and 14 women — in the municipality of San Fernando, Tamaulipas.

Mexican soldier in 2009 in Saltillo, Mexico standing guard over a display of Mexican pesos in plastic bags, several automatic military-grade rifles, boxes of bullets, ammunition cartridges, and jewelry confiscated from the Gulf Cartel. Reporters with cameras are crowded around the display taking photos and video footage of the the display.
Mexico’s Defense Ministry in 2009, giving a press conference in Saltillo, displaying over 10 million pesos in cash and dozens of army-grade weapons stolen from the military by a Gulf Cartel cell. (Saul Lopez/Cuartoscuro)

Michael Deibert, a journalist and author who wrote a book about the Gulf Cartel, told Insight Crime that Cárdenas is “arguably the most impactful, though not most famous, narco leader in Mexico.”

Mike Vigil, former head of international operations for the DEA, said earlier this year that he was an “architect of extreme violence” and “his methods have become the blueprint for other cartels in Mexico.”

With reports from El Universal and UNO TV 

The Mexican scientists ‘moving mountains’ to help migrating monarch butterflies

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Monarchs in Ocampo, Michoacán
The Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve in Michoacán receives as many as 300 million monarch butterflies each hibernation season. (Juan José Estrada Serafín/Cuartoscuro)

Mexican scientists have taken on an ambitious project to transplant the habitat of the monarch butterfly — which migrates south to Mexico every winter — to mitigate the effects of climate change on the butterfly’s population. 

Their approach involves planting new fir forests at temperatures where the butterfly’s preferred place to hibernate can thrive.

Monarch butterflies migrate to Mexico's fir forests every winter, where they are protected from rain and frost.
Monarch butterflies migrate to Mexico’s fir forests every winter, where they are protected from rain and frost. (Juan José Estrada Serafín/Cuartoscuro)

Between late October and early November, hundreds of millions of monarch butterflies migrate 2,500 miles from the northern United States and southern Canada to hibernate in Mexico’s fir forests.

The fir tree thrives in the humid, cold climate found along the border between Michoacán and México state, home to the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve. However, climate change is gradually changing the ecosystems of Mexico’s forests, putting the monarch’s habitat under threat from increasingly severe temperature changes, droughts and pests. 

“During the day, under the shade of the fir tree, the environment remains 5 degrees (Celsius) colder than outside. It is a protection against high temperatures. At night, it is the other way around, resulting in 5 degrees warmer,” Cuauhtémoc Sáenz Romero, the lead author of the study “Establishing monarch butterfly overwintering sites for future climates,” told the news site Wired. 

The density of the canopy of these trees acts as protection against winter rain. “If the temperature drops below zero and the butterflies get their wings wet, they can freeze. That is why these trees represent such a particular habitat,” Sáenz added.

Cuauhtémoc Sáenz Romero
Cuauhtémoc Sáenz Romero, the lead author of the study “Establishing monarch butterfly overwintering sites for future climates,” published in the journal Frontiers in Forests and Global Change. (Sam Matey/The Weekly Anthropocene)

According to Sáenz’s study, some climate change models suggest that the climate habitat suitable for monarchs could disappear by 2090 in the existing Monarch Reserve.  

“If at 3,000 meters, the fir trees had an average temperature of 10 degrees, now they will find that temperature at 3,300 meters. That is, the climate keeps moving upwards, but the trees cannot move [anywhere],” stated Sáenz Romero.

Assisted butterfly migration

Scientists and conservationists are now working together, alongside the Indigenous community of Calimaya, to move fir seedlings to higher and colder areas in the region to create new butterfly habitats.  

In 2017, the team chose the Nevado de Toluca volcano in Mexico state to plant the new forests, having assessed factors such as altitude, orientation, soil type and future climatic condition forecasts. 

Over the last seven years, they have transplanted seedlings from cone seeds collected from eight stands in the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve and planted almost 1,000 trees at four sites on the northeast slope of the volcano, at altitudes of 3,400, 3,600, 3,800 and 4,000 meters. 

The project would not have taken off without the Indigenous community involved, Sáenz stressed. “They understand that their work implies a positive effort for their forest. In addition, they have a great sense of attachment to their territory and a lot of ecological knowledge. They know where and when to collect the seeds,” explained Sáenz. 

The group must now ensure the survival of the seedlings during the first years of life, as well as consider their genetic adaptation to the new environmental conditions. The trees must be able to resist lower temperatures, stronger winds and less water availability to survive. The team aims to establish healthy trees by 2060.  

During the winter of 2023-2024, the population of monarch butterflies in typical hibernation locations was down nearly 60%, according to a report from Mexico’s National Commission of Protected Natural Areas (Conanp).  

While the monarchs have yet to migrate to the northwest slope of Nevado de Toluca, they were reported on the southwest side, which Sáenz said suggests they are searching for new places to spend the winter months.  

The monarch visitation season

The Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve in Michoacán is a popular tourist site, attracting up to 200,000 visitors every year.  

The main visitor sites include Sierra Chincua, Senguio and El Rosario in Michoacán and Piedra Herrada, which is located just 18 miles from the lake town of Valle de Bravo in México state. 

Conanp announced the opening of the 2024 season starting Nov. 15 and ending March 31, 2025, and emphasized the importance of ecological conservation at the reserve. 

With reports from ecoPortal, Wired, CB Televisión, El Sol de Morelia and National Geographic