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MND Local: Why high-value tourism is down, not just in Los Cabos, but across Mexico’s top beach resort destinations

By
Chris Sands
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Cabo San Lucas Marina and bay beyond
Not all tourists are equal. International air travelers stay longer and spend more money in places like Los Cabos than do cruise ship passengers, and their numbers are way down in 2026. (Cabo Adventures)

In May, Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) reported that tourism had increased in the country by 11.9% in March. This despite the high-profile death of CJNG cartel leader Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes during a Feb. 22 military operation in Jalisco, an event that set off a firestorm of retaliatory blockades, car burnings and other arson attacks; images that were widely disseminated in the U.S.

The figures made no sense at the time of their release, because it was already clear that international air arrivals were down. In fact, they’ve continued to plummet ever since in many of Mexico’s most notable tourist destinations. INEGI didn’t lie. But their numbers suggested a false narrative: that tourism was still thriving. 

Tourism disconnect in Mexico between volume and value chart
Numbers can be deceiving: Mexico received more than 9 million visitors in March, but the economic impact was muted due to the decrease in international air arrivals. (Mexico News Daily)

What actually happened in March is that it was a banner month for border-crossing daytrippers and cruise ship passengers in Mexico; or “short-timers.” But among the tourists who actually matter most in terms of significant economic impacts — the 27% of international air arrivals who contributed 84% of all tourism dollars during the month — their numbers dipped by 7.5% in March relative to the same month in 2025, and that trend is ongoing. 

The slump in international visitors

International air arrivals were down 8.2% in April and 7.5% in May. That’s nationwide, and although June did give a World Cup bump to host cities in Mexico — Guadalajara, for example, saw an 11.9% bump in June — in major resort destinations like Los Cabos, Puerto Vallarta and Cancún, the downward slide continues.

Los Cabos, since posting mild gains in international arrivals in January and February (2.6% and 4.2%, respectively), has seen its numbers decrease month over month: by 7.1% in March, 9.7% in April, 10.5% in May and 14.2% in June. 

In Puerto Vallarta, site of arson attacks in the wake of the “El Mencho” killing in February, the high-value tourism situation is even more dire. International arrivals dropped by 32.1% in March, 23.5% in April, 26.5% in May and 33.4% in June. 

Cancún, the country’s most popular resort destination, has seen the same troubling trend, albeit to a slightly lesser extent, with international air arrivals falling by 4% in March, 3.3% in April, 11.1% in May and 13.1% in June.

Why tourism is down in Los Cabos 

Of course it’s simplistic to link this downward spiral in international air travelers to Mexican resort destinations solely to cartel-related arson attacks being shown on American network television. But yes, it’s a factor, admitted Rodrigo Esponda, managing director of the Los Cabos Tourism Board (FITURCA), in a recent interview with Sudcaliforniano. 

Chart showing decline in international arrivals to Mexico in spring 2026
International air arrivals have been down in Mexico relative to 2025 numbers since March, although a World Cup bump did help select destinations in June. (Mexico News Daily)

In the case of Mexico generally and Los Cabos specifically, however, he pointed out two other contributing factors to the dwindling numbers of tourists. “The geopolitical context, where the cost of jet fuel has increased, has impacted the cost of air travel, and this has led to a decrease in travel by Americans,” he noted, while also acknowledging Los Cabos’ own terrible moment in the media spotlight after the hit-and-run accident that injured 17 during World Cup celebrations, and resulted in the death of the driver following his beating by the crowd. 

The trend from a nationwide perspective

Bad press, as Esponda highlights, has certainly been part of the overall trend of fewer Americans flying to Mexico since March. And since Americans make up 60% of all tourists to Mexico, any shift in consumer behavior has consequences for Mexico’s travel industry as a whole. 

But other reasons are driving this trend, too, from inflation to a “strong” peso relative to the dollar. There are also U.S. airline capacity cuts, a response to the rise in jet fuel prices that Esponda referenced. In May, Delta axed service from Seattle to Cancún, Los Cabos and Puerto Vallarta. Southwest has cut 11 international flights this year, including Baltimore, Chicago and Indianapolis to Los Cabos; St. Louis to Puerto Vallarta; and Chicago, Colorado Springs and Milwaukee to Cancún. 

Alaska Airlines has also announced it’s dropping flights from its schedule, including the Las Vegas to Los Cabos and Puerto Vallarta routes, and the Los Angeles to Cancún route. 

What the summer tourism doldrums look like in downtown Cabo San Lucas and San José del Cabo

It’s not just the shrinking number of international tourists that are increasingly making Cabo San Lucas and San José del Cabo feel like ghost towns. As I’ve noted before, the rising popularity of all-inclusive hotels across the hospitality industry has also played a significant role in squeezing downtown bar and restaurant owners. 

In San José del Cabo, “Thursday is the only day with consistent activity, driven by the traditional Art Walk,” Edgar Román, vice president of membership for the local Chamber of Commerce, recently told the Gringo Gazette. “From Friday through Wednesday, businesses experience a considerable decline in customer traffic.” 

Decline in international air arrivals to Mexico's biggest beach resort destinations in 2026, chart
It has not been a good year for Mexico’s three biggest beach resort destinations. Cancún, Los Cabos and Puerto Vallarta have all seen significant losses in terms of international air arrivals. (Mexico News Daily)

Unfortunately, Art Walk ended in June, so even Thursdays look bleak until the popular seasonal activity resumes in November. Restaurant sales are down an estimated 35% in Los Cabos across the industry, although some have done better, relatively speaking, than others.

“We’re down 30% for this year,” the owner of a perenially popular downtown restaurant in Cabo San Lucas told me, “and we were down last year, too.”

“We are all doing our best to maintain sustainable working conditions for our staff until things improve,” said Román, who is also executive chef and owner of Don Sánchez. “We know this isn’t a great season for anyone, and we’ve had to rely on savings to weather the slowdown.”

From bad to worse

But there’s only so much you can rely on savings before they run out. More than 20 restaurants have closed locally since last year, among them long-standing favorites like Pancho’s, Lorenzillo’s Lobster House and Alcaravea Gourmet.

As for the Los Cabos Tourism Board, after seven years of publishing monthly data on tourism statistics, it has not published anything since February. That’s when you know things are bad. 

Chris Sands is a writer and editor for Mexico News Daily, and the former Cabo San Lucas local expert for the USA Today travel website 10 Best and writer of Fodor’s Los Cabos travel guidebook. He has also contributed to numerous other websites and publications, including The San Diego Union-Tribune, Marriott Bonvoy Traveler, Forbes Travel Guide, Porthole Cruise and Travel, and Cabo Living. 

Mexico concludes its search and rescue mission in Venezuela after devastating earthquake

By
MND Staff
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1
returnees
President Sheinbaum welcomed home the military personnel who carried out Mexico's search and rescue mission in Venezuela, telling the returnees that they "showed the true face of Mexico, a Mexico of solidarity, fraternity and profound humanism." (José Luis Conde/Presidencia)

After welcoming home the humanitarian mission that was sent to Venezuela to aid in the aftermath of the devastating June 24 earthquake, President Claudia Sheinbaum said Mexico remains ready to help the struggling South American nation in any way possible.

The mission led by the Yumare Group — comprising 264 members of the Defense Ministry and 18 canine units — rescued two people alive and recovered 92 bodies, while also supplying humanitarian aid over 15 days in Venezuela. The medical unit also carried out more than 2,000 consultations. 

Yamare Group
The dogs that are seen accompanying the returning humanitarian workers are part of the 18 canine units that participated along with the 264 members of the Defense Ministry in the Venezuelan search and rescue mission. (Juan Carlos Buenrostro/Presidencia)

In addition to the rescue teams and medical personnel, Mexico sent more than 70 tons of humanitarian aid via an air bridge consisting of eight flights and two Navy ships. More than 13 tonnes of medicine were supplied, and the Yumare Group also helped repair eight power plants.

Sheinbaum said her government remains in constant contact with Venezuela, adding that “if there are any further requests … for greater assistance, Mexico would be willing to support them.”

During the July 10 ceremony at a military air base in México state, the president said the mission reflected the solidarity and humanist character of her administration.

“You showed the true face of Mexico, a Mexico of solidarity, fraternity, and profound humanism,” she told the returnees. “This mission was also a message to the world, a message that cooperation between nations is still possible. This is the essence of the Mexican people: to leave no one behind.”

Defense Minister Gen. Ricardo Trevilla awarded decorations for heroic valor, military merit, military distinction, and performance to the members of the Yumare Group, acknowledging that some members of the team worked 24-hour shifts during the search and rescue operations. 

In a gesture of appreciation, Venezuela’s acting president, Delcy Rodríguez, sent a letter of thanks via the returning mission, while also awarding Sheinbaum the “Hero of Venezuela First Class” decoration, the highest recognition Venezuela grants for actions of assistance and humanitarian aid.

Venezuela also presented three Belgian Malinois puppies to Mexico as a token of gratitude. This breed of dog is recognized for its intelligence, learning ability and performance in rescue operations.

 

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The gift continues a tradition begun by the Turkish government in May 2023 when it donated the puppy Arkadas (“friend” in Turkish) to the Mexican Army after the rescue dog Proteo lost his life while participating in search efforts after earthquakes in Türkiye and Syria in February of that year.

Since 1996, Mexico has carried out 98 international humanitarian aid missions in 30 countries.

With reports from La Jornada, El Financiero, N+ and Enfoque

Mexico’s sugar exports to US set to jump 512% under new deal

By
MND Staff
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0
Sugarcane is produced in over a dozen Mexican states, supplying more than 50 sugar mills.
Sugarcane is produced in over a dozen Mexican states, supplying more than 50 sugar mills. (Margarito Pérez Retana/Cuartoscuro)

Mexico will increase its sugar exports to the United States after years of decline and dissatisfaction from producers.

According to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Friday, the United States will import up to 1.152 million tonnes of Mexican sugar in the 2026-2027 cycle, marking an increase of 512% over 2025-2026.

The change in import quota results from bilateral negotiations between the USDA, Mexico’s Agriculture and Rural Development Ministry (Sader) and producers that began in late 2025.

The U.S.-Mexico sugar trade started to sour in 2014 when U.S. sugar industry alliances accused Mexico of selling below market value. This led to the introduction of increasingly strict quotas on the U.S. import of Mexican sugar, reducing exports to the U.S. from approximately one million tonnes annually to a cap of 200,000 tonnes in 2025.

Mexican exports of raw cane and beet sugar to the U.S. reached US $386.3 million in 2025, a slight improvement over the $258.8 million figure recorded in 2024, although far lower than the more than $700 million revenue seen in peak export years. 

Locked out of their top export market and facing unprofitable international prices, Mexico’s producers received a welcome boost from Sader in November 2025 with the announcement of a new tariff of between 156% and 210.44% on sugar imports. The quintuplication of producers’ exports is expected to further increase revenue by up to 4.76 billion pesos ($272 million), which will be distributed among 170,000 sugarcane producers, according to the Mexican government.  

“This outcome confirms that through dialogue it is possible to build important agreements that benefit agricultural producers and food consumers in both Mexico and the United States,” Sheinbaum’s office stated.

While sugar cane and its derivatives make up a small share of Mexico’s foreign trade — around 3% of total annual export revenue — it isn’t just a seller. Mexico is also the top buyer of U.S. sugar exports, primarily in the form of corn-based sweeteners for food and drink manufacturing. 

With reports from El Financiero, La Jornada, Quadratín México and Expansión

That’s not sargassum on a Nayarit beach, but Hypnea, a safer lookalike

By
MND Staff
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0
Hypnea on Nayarit beach
Locals and visitors were surprised by what seemed to be a sargassum invasion on their beach. And even though the invader isn't the sargassum plaguing Mexico's Caribbean coast, municipal officials went to work to clear out the tourist-repelling macroalgae. (Gobierno de Bahía de Banderas/Facebook)

What looked like an unprecedented sargassum invasion on a popular beach in the western state of Nayarit has instead been identified as a harmless Pacific macroalgae — not the same seaweed that has become the scourge of Quintana Roo’s Caribbean shores.

For the past couple of weeks, beachgoers and residents in Rincón de Guayabitos have observed clumps of brown muck covering the shoreline. 

An especially large accumulation Sunday morning led to Facebook and other social media posts, including by the municipal government of Compostela which the Guayabitos beach is part of, describing a “sargazo” invasion.

“This has never happened before,” residents and boatmen told the newspaper La Jornada as they joined cleanup efforts.

But researchers from the Autonomous University of Nayarit (UAN) said the material is not sargassum — which typically affects Mexico’s Caribbean coast — but Hypnea, a naturally occurring macroalgae.

In an interview on Radio UAN, marine researchers Ubisha Hernández Almeida and María Alcántara said the accumulation is tied to seasonal changes in ocean currents, water temperature and nutrient loads.

Unlike Atlantic sargassum — which can cause respiratory irritations and skin rashes as it decomposes — Hypnea is not linked to large transoceanic blooms and does not pose health risks, though it can be considered an unsightly nuisance and produce odors as it decomposes.

The distinction is significant.

Sargassum influxes have battered Quintana Roo for years, and the 2026 season remains severe. State officials report 79,476 tonnes collected as of July 6, with Playa del Carmen and Cancún accounting for roughly 60% of the total. 

Extensive containment and cleanup operations are ongoing along the Caribbean coast.

In contrast, Pacific coast events such as the one in Guayabitos are typically localized and temporary. Residents said smaller arrivals have occurred before, including in 2021, but not at this scale.

“From one day to the next, the sargassum invaded … it had never arrived in such quantities before,” a vendor told La Jornada, reflecting widespread confusion over the phenomenon.

It is also not a “red tide,” the toxic microscopic algal blooms that periodically discolor the water and prompt shellfish warnings in places such as Zihuatanejo Bay. Instead of a harmful bloom of single-celled microalgae, Guayabitos is seeing mats of larger, multicellular seaweed that are unsightly and smelly when they pile up, but so far have not triggered health advisories.

Local authorities and volunteers have launched cleanup campaigns, while tourism operators express confidence that the event will be short-lived and far less disruptive than sargassum blooms battering the Yucatán Peninsula.

With reports from La Jornada and 24 Horas Quintana Roo

MND Local: A new chapter opens for San Miguel de Allende’s most iconic cultural landmark

By
Nayelli Sánchez
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Instituto Allende courtyard decorated for a wedding in San Miguel de Allende
Both art school and venue for weddings and social events, the Instituto Allende has been a cultural landmark in San Miguel de Allende for 75 years ... and it's not done growing. (Instituto Allende/Instagram)

When San Miguel de Allende comes to mind, so does the cultural and artistic richness that has long defined this UNESCO World Heritage city. That legacy is embodied by spaces that have existed for decades and helped forge the city’s cultural identity — none more so than Instituto Allende.

Instituto Allende’s roots are with the family of the Conde de la Canal, one of the most influential families in San Miguel de Allende’s history. The 18th-century mansion that houses it today once belonged to the Count, whose hacienda helped shape the city’s development. In 1951, American writer and adventurer Stirling Dickinson, alongside Mexican painter Alfredo Campanella and with the support of the Hernández Macías family, transformed the space into an art school affiliated with the University of Guanajuato.

The concept was radical for its time: a bohemian, open and multicultural environment in the heart of El Bajío. The school gained international recognition when it began welcoming World War II veterans using the G.I. Bill to study art abroad at low cost — turning the Instituto into a creative haven where Mexican and foreign artists lived and worked side by side, laying the groundwork for the cosmopolitan identity San Miguel de Allende carries to this day.

For years, Instituto Allende has served as both an art school and a venue for social events. This year, it opens a new chapter in its history with the launch of the Centro Cultural Instituto Allende.

A new project for a cultural touchstone in San Miguel

Eva Fernández Martínez Borden leads this new project, guided by the vision of her father, Rodolfo Fernández Martínez Harris, who devoted years of his life to maintaining the space as a cultural landmark — continuing, in turn, the legacy of his own father. Those now at the helm of this initiative aim to reclaim its open, community-focused spirit for the people of San Miguel.

The Centro Cultural Instituto Allende officially launched on a rainy Thursday in June, marked by live jazz saxophone from Rodrigo, a local San Miguel musician, and the opening of a visual exhibition titled “Autonomía del Vuelo” (“Autonomy of Flight”) by artist Erika Harrsch, who spent part of her artistic training at the Instituto. Eva’s remarks — heartfelt as she reflected on this new phase — were received by a large community that has closely followed the artistic life unfolding within the building and its gardens. The inaugural exhibition became a genuine gathering point for the local public: media outlets, artists, enthusiasts and art professionals came together to mark the beginning of a new era for the space.

The strength of a cultural center lies in its multidisciplinarity, and that is precisely what this space offers. The combination of areas for artistic education and professional development, an exhibition space — the gallery led by Cartografía Cultural — and the new Rodolfo Fernández Martínez auditorium seeks to unite artistic spirit with discipline, creative freedom and a renewed sense of the creative soul that sets San Miguel de Allende apart.

What does this mean for the World Heritage city?

Art permeates San Miguel de Allende at every level — from its picturesque streets and murals by local artists to its galleries and theaters. Independent cultural initiatives like this one require enormous effort, a commitment to the human spirit, and a passion sustained daily by the people behind them. It is work that deserves recognition, because everyone who calls a city home deserves places where they can create and belong.

This increasingly gentrified city faces a challenge that is growing quietly: spaces that once belonged to locals now cater primarily to tourism and the real estate market. San Miguel welcomes thousands of visitors and new residents each year, drawn by the very artistic and bohemian atmosphere its own community has built over decades. Yet that same appeal drives up the cost of living and gradually pushes out the local creators who give the city its soul. Initiatives like the Centro Cultural Instituto Allende offer a concrete response: accessible spaces where art is not a consumer product, but an act of community and belonging — a place where locals and the foreign residents who now call the city home can coexist around art.

That coexistence takes concrete shape through initiatives like the Lifelong Learning Program, led by John Wimberly, who has lived intermittently in San Miguel for several years. The program welcomes the foreign community that comes to San Miguel each spring and shares space with Visual Arts undergraduate students and other workshop participants at the Instituto — all of which are actively taking place within the Instituto Allende today. Together, these programs create an environment where foreigners and locals connect through a shared passion for art and learning, making the Instituto a living, breathing hub of creative exchange.

Providing artistic expression with a spiritual dimension

This diversity of experiences, voices and perspectives is precisely what makes cultural spaces indispensable. Cultural spaces in cities are not a basic necessity, but they are a spiritual one — much like art itself, which seeks to give meaning to human existence. Their value lies in being creative, social and communal gathering points. Whether a gallery, theater, cinema, library or cultural center, these are the places where art is born and communities with shared interests in personal and collective well-being come together. A city’s cultural richness is nourished daily by its creators and the spaces where creativity lives: worlds of possibility where disciplines intersect and communal visions elevate the artistic spirit of the city.

The Centro Cultural Instituto Allende embraces that vision from the very start. While the full events and exhibitions calendar is still taking shape, local artists will begin joining the Instituto’s community this fall, finding a space to develop and present their work under the curatorial direction of Mary Paz Cervera, coordinator of Cartografía Cultural.

The Centro Cultural Instituto Allende opens its doors at a pivotal moment for the city — one in which the question of who San Miguel de Allende truly belongs to has never felt more urgent. As Eva Fernández puts it: whether you live here permanently or are just passing through, the art and culture of this space welcome you to live your own artistic story. Because the answer, at least from within these walls, is clear: San Miguel belongs to those who create it, inhabit it and feel it as their own.

Nayelli Sánchez is a contributor to Mexico News Daily. 

Inflation in Mexico is now lower than in the United States — why that’s such a big deal: A perspective from our CEO

By
Travis Bembenek
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red downward arrow inside a magnifying glass placed over a U.S. dollar banknote symbolizes economic decline, financial crisis, or recession in the United States.
Mexico's headline inflation rate is currently 3.37% while in the United States, the latest reading (May 2026) was 4.20%. (Shutterstock)

Inflation matters. The famous economist John Maynard Keynes has described it as a “method for governments to secretly confiscate citizen wealth.” Warren Buffett called it a “tax more devastating than any legislative action.” Milton Friedman labeled it “taxation without legislation.” And former U.S. President Ronald Reagan compared its impact on society to “that of a violent criminal.”

Inflation reduces the value of money, makes planning and investment harder and can destabilize an economy if it is high or unpredictable for long. The central banks of governments often set “target inflation rates.” The United States has a target inflation rate of 2%; Mexico‘s is 3%. These targets help individuals, businesses and investors plan accordingly based on the expected inflation rates in each country.

Inflation falls to 3.37%, just above Banxico’s target

Over the past 50+ years, Mexico has always had higher inflation than the U.S., except for a period of several months in 2022 during the COVID-19 post-pandemic period when inflation rapidly increased in both countries.

For a few months in 2022, the U.S. had inflation of 8.0% compared to Mexico‘s 7.9%. Other than that, inflation has never been lower in Mexico. Until now. The most recent inflation data from each country, published just this past week, has Mexican inflation at 3.37% and U.S. inflation at 4.2%. Interestingly enough, Mexico’s inflation rate is currently trending down, while in the U.S., it is trending up.

For added context, in the decades before the early 2000’s, Mexico always had much higher inflation than the U.S., oftentimes at least 10% higher. During the decade of the 2000’s, this gap lowered to Mexico being 5% higher on average each year. In the 2010’s, it lowered further to Mexico being about 3% higher on average each year. Since the pandemic, the gap has narrowed even further to the situation today in which Mexico actually has lower inflation than the U.S. by almost a full percentage point.

So why should we care? And what could this mean? When one country runs persistently higher inflation than another (as Mexico has done for decades versus the U.S. until now), it tends to end up with a weaker currency, higher interest rates, more volatility and a long-run loss of competitiveness and real incomes relative to the lower-inflation country. It is worth re-reading the previous sentence and thinking about it in the context of Mexico and the U.S. over the past decades.

Mexico has, in fact, almost always had a weaker currency than the U.S. (which made Americans feel “relatively wealthier” in Mexico and made Mexicans feel “relatively poorer” in the U.S.). Mexico has always had higher interest rates and more interest rate volatility (making individuals and businesses less likely to invest due to higher risk factors). And in part due to this difference in inflation rates, Mexico has continually had a long-run loss of real incomes relative to the U.S. The per-capita GDP in Mexico is still only about 1/7th of what it is in the U.S. and in fact, it has not improved from what it was decades ago! The relatively higher inflation in Mexico decade after decade, along with factors like lower productivity and lower rates of fixed investment, is in large part what is responsible for Mexicans’ inability to increase their wealth.

To illustrate, let me provide a very simple example. Imagine that inflation is 6% and wage growth is 5%. In that case, the average worker actually has lost purchasing power, and in effect is 1% poorer than they were a year earlier. Now imagine a scenario where inflation is 3% and wage growth is 4%. In that case, the average worker has gained purchasing power and, in effect, is 1% richer than they were a year earlier. The first example is almost always what has happened in Mexico year after year. The second example is almost always what has happened in the U.S. year after year. Until now. The U.S. right now is experiencing a decline in purchasing power (inflation is higher than wage growth), while Mexico right now is experiencing an increase in purchasing power (wage growth is higher than inflation).

So what’s the big picture and what could be expected for Mexico and Mexicans if this trend continues?

  1. In the near term, there is limited pressure on the Mexican peso to devalue further against the USD. It might actually gain in strength.
  2. Lower inflation will bring lower interest rates in Mexico, which could be a boost to the economy if more individuals use credit and more businesses are willing to invest in a more stable interest rate environment.
  3. Mexicans will likely see their purchasing power begin to improve.
  4. Even though inflation has moderated, foreigners and foreign companies in Mexico will likely feel that Mexico is getting more expensive (a dramatic change from the decades during which Mexico “always felt like it was getting cheaper” to foreigners).
  5. Relatively speaking, this hurts those in Mexico who depend on international tourism, but is good for those who depend on domestic tourism.
  6. For home buyers in Mexico, mortgage and loan instruments will likely become more affordable and accessible.
  7. Investment products in Mexico might become more readily available and more attractive to international investors.

It’s important to note that there are many, many factors that go into exchange rates, interest rates and economic data. Oil prices, war and policy changes can all quickly change economic outlooks and reverse trends. That being said, I think it is worth noting that Mexico has achieved lower inflation in spite of the Trump tariffs and the oil and other commodity price increases as a result of the Iranian and Ukrainian wars.

Mexico right now is in fact demonstrating impressive fiscal discipline. The country’s latest level of government debt to GDP is 45% and trending down. In the United States, it is 123% and trending up. Said differently, Mexico’s debt burden is relatively low and decreasing, while in the U.S., it is relatively high and increasing. The U.S. currently has a debt ratio that is almost 3 times higher than that of Mexico.

What does this mean for the two countries in the future? No one knows for sure, but it will certainly be fascinating to watch. The team at MND will help you make sense of it all every step of the way!

Travis Bembenek is the CEO of Mexico News Daily and has been living, working or playing in Mexico for nearly 30 years.

Inflation falls to 3.37%, just above Banxico’s target

By
MND Staff
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0
Tomatoes, which had been steadily rising in price since the beginning of 2026, were down 39% in June compared to May.
Tomatoes, which had been steadily rising in price since the beginning of 2026, were down 39% in June compared to May. (Daniel Augusto/Cuartoscuro)

Inflation in Mexico is now just above the central bank’s target after falling to its lowest level in more than five years in June.

The national statistics agency INEGI reported on Thursday that the annual headline inflation rate was 3.37% in June, down from 3.94% in May.

The rate — just 0.37 percentage points above the Bank of Mexico’s 3% target — is the lowest for any month in Mexico since December 2020, when annual headline inflation was 3.15%.

Inflation has now declined during three consecutive months in 2026 after the headline rate increased in each month of the first quarter.

On X, Alfredo Coutiño, director for Latin America at Moody’s Analytics, said that the third consecutive decline in annual headline inflation was “supported by disinflation in the volatile prices of agricultural products and fuel.”

“Most of the decline in inflation is explained by the normalization of the supply of agricultural products, combined with price agreements between producers and the government, as well as a normalization of fuel prices,” he wrote in a separate post.

INEGI reported that the annual core inflation rate, which excludes volatile fuel and energy prices, was 4.03% in June, down from 4.19% in May.

Both the headline and core rates in June were lower than the median estimates of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

On a month-over-month basis, consumer prices fell 0.27% in June, INEGI reported. It was the second consecutive month that prices fell on a sequential basis after a 0.21% decline in May compared to April. The El Economista newspaper reported that it was the first time in at least 10 years that inflation declined in the month of June compared to May.

Deflation in fresh food prices helps to slow inflation  

INEGI reported that prices for agricultural products were 1.72% lower in June than in the same month last year. Within that category, prices for meat fell 6.48% annually, while fruit and vegetable prices increased 5.56%.

Annual inflation for processed food, beverages and tobacco was 5.08% in June, while prices for non-food goods rose 2.24%.

Services were 4.49% more expensive in June than a year earlier while energy prices, including those for electricity and gasoline, rose 3.46%.

Compared to May, tomatoes were almost 39% cheaper in June while prices for poblano chilis plummeted more than 40%, according to INEGI. Tomato prices spiked sharply earlier this year, largely because crops in Florida were damaged by frost.

Grapes (-18.96%), cucumbers (-10.13%), limes (-8.94%) and eggs (-7.21%) were among the other products that were cheaper in June than in May. Among the products whose prices increased on a month-over-month basis in June were avocados (+24.53%), oranges (+9.55%), potatoes and other tubers (+9.32%) and onions (+6.87%).

Where is inflation headed?

The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) is currently forecasting an average headline inflation rate of 3.8% in the third quarter of 2026. In other words, the central bank expects inflation to increase from the 3.37% rate in June.

Mexico’s central bank holds interest rate at 6.50% while inflation continues to decline

Banxico anticipates average headline rates of 3.5% in the fourth quarter of 2026 and 3.2% in the first quarter of 2027. It forecasts that inflation will converge to its 3% target in the second quarter of next year.

In late June, the Banxico board voted in favor of maintaining the central bank’s benchmark rate at 6.50%. The bank has indicated that the key rate will remain at that level in the near future.

In its most recent monetary policy statement, Banxico said that its inflation forecasts were “subject to various risks,” including upside ones such as “disruptions due to foreign trade policies or to an inflationary impact from geopolitical conflicts”; “climate-related impacts”; and “a trend towards depreciation of the Mexican peso.”

On X, Gabriela Siller, director of economic analysis at Banco Base, pointed out that “unlike the previous four months,” Mexico’s trimmed mean inflation rate in June, at 3.53%, was higher than the headline rate.

That means that the “marked slowdown in general inflation was concentrated in generic items with extreme variations” that are excluded by the trimmed mean inflation measure, Siller said.

“… The bulk of prices showed a more gradual moderation. This means that inflation decelerated due to atypical events that aren’t expected to last, so inflation could rise,” she wrote without specifying the “atypical events” she referred to.

With reports from La Jornada, El Economista and López-Dóriga Digital

4 Americans among injured in multi-vehicle Jalisco crash that left 10 dead

By
MND Staff
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Seven vehicles were destroyed, while two other passenger cars and a National Guard vehicle were damaged in the crash and fire that occurred on a busy federal highway shared by cargo vehicles, commuters and tourists. (Secretaría de Seguridad Pública y Protección Ciudadana de Nayarit)

A multi-vehicle collision on a major highway in the western state of Jalisco on Sunday morning sparked a fire that left at least 10 people dead and 10 others injured, four of them Americans.

The tragedy occurred on Federal Highway 15D connecting Tepic and Guadalajara, the state capitals of Nayarit and Jalisco, respectively. 

Emergency personnel were on the scene attending to a collision between two cargo vehicles when a third tractor-trailer slammed into the wreckage. The second impact touched off an explosion and a conflagration that consumed the first two trucks and three passenger vehicles nearby.

Among the fatalities are two minors, while among the injured are two members of the National Guard who had responded to the original crash, both in serious condition, and four U.S. citizens. 

Videos shared on social media showed vehicles completely burned out on the highway, a route frequented by cargo transport, commuters and tourists. 

That afternoon, Jalisco Governor Pablo Lemus offered condolences in a social media post and said state government agencies will provide support to the families and victims.

“This is truly a great tragedy that plunges Jalisco and Nayarit into mourning; we are transferring the injured to private and public hospitals … and we will provide unlimited support” via the National Guard, state Civil Protection authorities, the Magdalena Fire Department and Jalisco’s emergency medical system, he said. 

The governor’s office coordinated the rescue efforts, making available helicopters, ambulances and various means of transportation for the injured.

The victims were transported to the Magdalena Regional Hospital in northern Jalisco, the Arboledas Hospital in Guadalajara and the Puerta de Hierro Hospital in Nayarit.

Jalisco authorities said the four U.S. citizens were transferred to Arboledas Hospital “in mild condition.”

Seven vehicles were destroyed by the resulting fire, while two other passenger cars and a National Guard vehicle were damaged.

The incident backed up traffic on the highway for several hours before the authorities completely shut down the northbound side to conduct their investigation in an effort to determine the cause of the accident and the fire.

Authorities had not released the identities of the deceased, nor had they established a definitive cause of the incident by Monday morning.

With reports from CNN en Español, Reuters, El Occidental, France 24 and Informador

10,000+ arrests, 50,000 guns seized: US ambassador touts anti-cartel firearms push

By
MND Staff
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The Charlotte branch of the ATF recently seized 140 firearms that investigators believe were intended to be delivered to a Mexican drug cartel.
The Charlotte, North Carolina, branch of the ATF recently seized 140 firearms that would likely have been delivered to a Mexican drug cartel. (@ATFCharlotte/X)

U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Ron Johnson touted on Friday the U.S. government’s actions against the illegal trafficking of firearms — weapons that often end up in the hands of members of Mexican cartels.

“The Trump Administration is delivering results to dismantle the cartels and stop illegal firearms trafficking: nearly 50,000 firearms seized, almost 2.9 million rounds of ammunition seized and more than 10,000 arrests linked to firearms trafficking,” Johnson wrote on social media.

“Under the leadership of @POTUS @realDonaldTrump and President @ClaudiaShein, our countries continue working together to make both our nations safer,” he wrote.

An infographic included in the post shows that the ambassador was referring to firearms trafficking-related arrests and seizures made by the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) between January 2025 — the month U.S. President Donald Trump began his second term — and July 2026. Not all of the approximately 50,000 firearms seized were bound for Mexico. Data published by the ATF in February indicated that around 12% of all firearms seized in the U.S. since Trump returned to the White House (4,359 of 36,277 at the time) were destined for Mexico.

The Mexican government has long called on U.S. authorities to do more to stop the flow of firearms to Mexico, where U.S.-sourced weapons are commonly used by criminal organizations to commit crimes including murder. Experts estimate that approximately 135,000 firearms were trafficked to Mexico in 2022.

During the second Trump administration, the ATF has ramped up its efforts to seize weapons before they leave the United States, leading what the U.S. Department of Justice has called “an aggressive nationwide effort to dismantle the domestic and international networks that arm violent criminals.”

Earlier this month, the ATF announced that in the week starting June 29, it “initiated a search warrant that led to the seizure of 140 firearms investigators believe were intended to be delivered to a Mexican drug cartel.”

“ATF received information that a Mexican cartel source had a large cache of weapons stored in the North Carolina area and was attempting to smuggle the firearms into Mexico on behalf of the Sinaloa cartel,” the agency said in a July 2 statement.

Last September, the Mexican and U.S. governments announced the launch of a new bilateral initiative, “Mission Firewall,” aimed at disrupting the southward flow of illicit weapons across the Mexico-U.S. border.

In March, President Claudia Sheinbaum said that “at least 75%” of the weapons in the possession of organized crime groups in Mexico come from the United States, citing a U.S. Department of Justice report to support her claim.

“If the entry of illegal weapons from the United States into Mexico is stopped, these groups will not have this type of high-powered weaponry to carry out their criminal activities,” she said at the time.

“So that is something the United States can help us with a lot,” added Sheinbaum, whose administration seized almost 30,000 firearms between October 2024 and May 2026.

Mexico News Daily 

Mexico initiates criminal cases in United States over ICE deaths: Monday’s mañanera recapped

By
MND Staff
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Sheinbaum at podium
President Claudia Sheinbaum revealed today that the government is acting expeditiously in its decision to file criminal complaints in the United States in connection with the deaths of 17 Mexicans who have died in U.S. Immigration and Customs (ICE) detention centers or in ICE operations since early 2025. (Moisés Pablo/Cuartoscuro)

Sheinbaum’s mañanera in 60 seconds

  • 🇺🇸 SRE to file criminal complaints in US over deaths of 17 Mexicans in ICE custody: Sheinbaum said the Foreign Affairs Ministry (SRE) would file complaints on Monday with the U.S. Department of Justice and state Attorneys General over the deaths of 17 Mexican nationals in ICE detention or ICE operations. She called the killing of Lorenzo Salgado Araujo, shot by an ICE officer in Houston last week, “practically murder,” and urged Mexican society and political parties to show solidarity with compatriots in the U.S.
  • ⚖️ Sheinbaum distances government from new Ayotzinapa report: Responding to a CNDH report that found the army wasn’t involved in the 2014 disappearance of 43 Ayotzinapa students, Sheinbaum said her government had no role in producing it and asked the Interior Ministry to review its findings before issuing an official position. She stressed that the priority remains solidarity with the students’ families and resolving the case.
  • 🚗 No concern about other automakers leaving Mexico, Sheinbaum says: Asked about Toyota’s move of Tacoma production from Tijuana to Texas, the president said she isn’t concerned other manufacturers will follow, and teased that one automaker — unnamed for now — is actually looking to open a new plant in Mexico, with details expected this week or next.

Why today’s mañanera matters

Today’s mañanera was significant as President Claudia Sheinbaum revealed that the government is acting expeditiously in its decision to file criminal complaints in the United States in connection with the deaths of 17 Mexicans who have died in U.S. Immigration and Customs (ICE) detention centers or in ICE operations since U.S. President Donald Trump returned to the White House in early 2025 and commenced an aggressive deportation campaign.

Sheinbaum speaking at a morning press conference on July 13, 2026
Sheinbaum said on Monday that the last Mexican to die in an ICE-related incident was “practically murdered.” (Juan Carlos Buenrostro/Presidencia)

Also of note was Sheinbaum’s response to a new National Human Rights Commission report that asserts that the Mexican army was not involved in the 2014 abduction and presumed murder of 43 young men who were studying to become teachers at a college in the southern state of Guerrero. The army has long been suspected of involvement in the case and soldiers and ex-soldiers have been arrested in connection with the crime, including a man who was detained in the United States last month.

Sheinbaum: SRE to file criminal complaints in US on Monday 

Sheinbaum told reporters that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (SRE) would file criminal complaints in the United States on Monday “due to the deaths of 17 compatriots” in the custody of ICE or in ICE operations.

She said that the SRE would file the complaints with the U.S. Department of Justice and with state Attorney General’s Offices. Foreign Affairs Minister Roberto Velasco first announced last Thursday that the SRE would file criminal complaints in the United States against “whoever is responsible” for the deaths of Mexicans under ICE custody or in ICE operations.

Sheinbaum said on Monday that the last Mexican to die in an ICE-related incident was “practically murdered.”

Lorenzo Salgado Araujo was shot by an ICE officer in Houston, Texas, last Tuesday.

Sheinbaum said that local authorities in Houston are investigating the incident, adding that “we understand” that the U.S. government is investigating as well.

She also said that Velasco had been in contact with U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Ron Johnson to inform him of what the Mexican government was planning to do to defend Mexicans in the United States.

“He was very understanding of our concern about alleged violations of human rights of Mexicans in detention centers, and also of three Mexicans who have died in ICE operations,” Sheinbaum said.

“… I think that this is an issue that isn’t just for the government of Mexico,” she said.

“I make a call to all the political parties, to all of society … to show solidarity with our compatriots in the United States,” Sheinbaum said.

“I don’t think that anyone thinks this situation is good,” she said.

“… I make this call and I hope you are receptive and all of us speak out in defense of Mexicans abroad.”

Sheinbaum distances Mexican government from new Ayotzinapa report 

A reporter asked the president about a new 867-page “recommendation” from the National Human Rights Commission (CNDH) related to the 2014 abduction and presumed murder in Guerrero of 43 students from the Ayotzinapa Rural Teachers’ College.

“What is your opinion? Because there is a lot of criticism, including from the parents [of the students] and civil society organizations that have pointed out [the CNDH] practically exonerates the army and dismisses the investigations that had already been carried out in relation to this case,” the reporter said.

Sheinbaum said she asked the Interior Ministry to carry out an “exhaustive review of the report in order to be able to present an opinion” on behalf of the government.

She stressed that the government “didn’t participate in any way in that report.”

“That has to be made very clear. The government of Mexico didn’t know [the CNHD] was going to publish last week. We didn’t participate in any way in the report. … We might agree, or might not agree, with parts of the report or its overall vision,” Sheinbaum said.

“That’s why I asked the Interior Ministry to do this analysis. What’s more important for us is obviously solidarity with the mothers and fathers and solving this case, which is a wound not just for the parents of the 43 Ayotzinapa students, but also for Mexico,” she said.

The president noted that various soldiers are detained in connection with the Ayotzinapa case and are subject to ongoing legal procedures.

“Maybe the question — which I don’t want to answer now — is whether these soldiers participated individually [in the crime] due to a link they may have had at this time with a group,” Sheinbaum said, apparently referring to the Guerreros Unidos crime gang.

She said that the alleged involvement of the army as an “institution” entailed “different questions.”

The CNDH asserted that Mexican soldiers didn’t participate in “any of the violent events against the students.”

Sheinbaum: No concerns about other automakers moving production out of Mexico 

In light of Toyota’s decision to move production of its Tacoma model from Tijuana to San Antonio, Texas, a reporter asked the president whether the government was concerned that other automakers with plants in Mexico could leave the country.

Toyota set to move production out of Tijuana and into Texas

Sheinbaum responded that the government wasn’t concerned, declaring that “on the contrary,” there is an automaker — which she didn’t name — that wants to establish a plant in Mexico. She said she would present information on that automaker’s plans either this week or next week.

Vehicles manufactured in Mexico are currently subject to a 25% tariff when shipped to the United States. However, U.S. content in Mexican vehicles is exempt from the duty, effectively lowering the tariff for virtually all vehicles shipped north.

By Mexico News Daily chief staff writer Peter Davies (peter.davies@mexiconewsdaily.com)

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