U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday threatened to impose a 5% tariff on Mexican goods if Mexico doesn’t promptly release a significant quantity of the water it owes to the United States under the terms of a 1944 treaty.
Trump’s latest tariff threat came in a Truth Social post, but the U.S. president didn’t specify which goods the proposed 5% duty would apply to or whether USMCA-compliant products would be exempt.
“Mexico continues to violate our comprehensive Water Treaty, and this violation is seriously hurting our BEAUTIFUL TEXAS CROPS AND LIVESTOCK,” he wrote, referring to a bilateral accord that took effect 81 years ago, and which requires Mexico and the U.S. to transfer established quantities of water to each other over five-year cycles.
Trump noted that “Mexico still owes the U.S over 800,000 acre-feet of water for failing to comply with our Treaty over the past five years,” and declared that “the U.S needs Mexico to release 200,000 acre-feet of water before December 31st, and the rest must come soon after.”
“As of now, Mexico is not responding, and it is very unfair to our U.S. Farmers who deserve this much needed water. That is why I have authorized documentation to impose a 5% Tariff on Mexico if this water isn’t released, IMMEDIATELY,” he wrote.
“The longer Mexico takes to release the water, the more our Farmers are hurt. Mexico has an obligation to FIX THIS NOW. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” Trump’s post concluded.
The U.S. is already collecting a 25% tariff on Mexican goods that don’t comply with the USMCA. That duty was imposed in March to pressure Mexico to do more to stem the flow of fentanyl to the United States. The Trump administration has also imposed tariffs on a range of other Mexican products, including steel, aluminum and light and heavy vehicles.
The U.S. president’s threat of an additional 5% tariff on Mexican goods came two weeks after the U.S. Department of State said in a statement that Trump administration officials had met with Mexican officials to “discuss immediate and concrete steps Mexico would take to reduce shortfalls in water deliveries and ensure compliance with the 1944 Water Treaty.”
“The officials examined available water resources and the United States pressed for the maximum possible deliveries to Texas users,” said the statement, which also asserted that “shortfalls in Mexico’s water deliveries have exacerbated water scarcity in Texas and contributed to hundreds of millions of dollars in crop losses for farmers.”
In April, the Mexican and U.S. governments announced they had reached an agreement under which Mexico would immediately deliver water to the U.S.
Prior to that agreement, Trump noted that he had “halted water shipments to Tijuana” in March, and said that his administration would “keep escalating consequences, including TARIFFS and, maybe even SANCTIONS, until Mexico honors the Treaty, and GIVES TEXAS THE WATER THEY ARE OWED!”
Despite Mexico’s agreement in April to deliver more water to the U.S., the 2020-25 treaty cycle concluded in late October with Mexico still owing its neighbor just over 865,000 acre-feet of water, an amount equivalent to just under 50% of the 1.75 million acre-feet of water it is required to send across the northern border every five years from six tributaries of the Rio Grande.
US senators push legislation that blocks water from going to Mexico
Mexico’s failure to meet its obligations in the last five-year cycle of the 1944 water treaty was mainly due to drought, which has been particularly severe in the north of the country.
Under the treaty, the United States has to deliver 1.5 million acre-feet of water from the Colorado River to Mexico every year.
According to the U.S. Congressional Research Service, “the United States typically has met its Colorado River delivery requirements to Mexico pursuant to the 1944 Treaty.”
Sheinbaum confident that the proposed tariff will be averted
At her morning press conference on Tuesday, President Claudia Sheinbaum acknowledged Trump’s threat to impose an additional 5% tariff on Mexican goods that are exported to the U.S.
She said that Mexican and U.S. officials would discuss the water issue at a virtual meeting on Tuesday afternoon and expressed confidence that “we’re going to reach an agreement for the benefit of the United States and for the benefit of Mexico.”
Sheinbaum said there are two things that limits Mexico’s capacity to transfer “more water” to the United States.
“One, our country’s own water needs … and two, the size of the pipeline that takes water to the Rio Grande. [There is] a physical part that limits us,” she said.
She acknowledged that Mexico has an obligation to “comply” with the 1944 treaty, but added that its capacity to do so depends on “the amount of water there is and the amount of water that can be taken by the pipelines.”
The president highlighted that Mexico has sent more water to the U.S. in 2025 than in previous years because there was more rain, and said that additional deliveries would be made in the final weeks of the year.
Sheinbaum declared that Mexico’s failure to fully comply with its treaty obligations “it’s not a matter of ill will.”
She added that her government is not saying to its U.S. counterpart that “we don’t want to deliver water.”
“We want to comply with the treaty, but in accordance with the characteristics we have at this time, and we’ll continue working [to deliver water] in January, February, March,” Sheinbaum said.
“That’s why I say we can come to an agreement, if there is really no other issue on the United States’ part. I hope there isn’t” she added.
The latest flare-up in the long-running water bilateral water dispute comes just days after the Mexican and U.S. presidents met at the World Cup draw in Washington, D.C.
On Monday, Sheinbaum said that Trump showed “a lot of respect toward Mexico” in the meeting, which also included Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. There was no indication that Sheinbaum and Trump spoke about water during the meeting, which largely focused on trade, according to the U.S. president
By Mexico News Daily chief staff writer Peter Davies (peter.davies@mexiconewsdaily.com)
