Data from a variety of sources now show that Canadians — not Americans — are the top international visitors arriving to Mexico’s main tourist destination, the Caribbean coast. And for the first time ever, the Cancún-Toronto route ranked as the busiest of any international flight to Mexico, according to the Mexican Civil Aviation Agency (AFAC).

Of 10 air routes with the most international traffic to the Mexican Caribbean last year, six connecting with the U.S. showed downturns while two Canadian flights experienced significant passenger surges.

A study conducted by the Center for Advanced Research in Sustainable Tourism (STARC) at Anáhuac University’s Quintana Roo campus revealed that travel from Toronto, the capital of the Canadian province of Ontario, climbed 26.1% compared to 2024, displacing the two flights from Texas (Dallas-Cancún and Houston-Cancún) which had traditionally topped this annual list.

In fact, last year’s Dallas-Cancún flights had 4.5% fewer passengers than in 2024. Two other popular U.S.-Caribbean routes suffered declines last year — Chicago-Cancún (down 11.7%) and Atlanta-Cancún (–2%).

In contrast, the Montreal-Cancún connection surged 24%.

The STARC study concluded that the likely cause of the rise in travel to Mexico by Canadians is a reaction to the punitive policies, threats and insults directed toward Canada by U.S. President Donald Trump, who has even proposed making it the 51st U.S. state.

On Thursday, Forbes Magazine wrote that Canadians are one year into a boycott of U.S. destinations that has cost the U.S. economy US $4.5 billion. The boycott is likely to continue in 2026, Forbes said, as trips to the U.S. turned lower in January.

Citing data from Mexico’s Tourism Ministry, the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) reported in December that the number of Canadians flying to Mexico increased 11.3% between January and September 2025 compared to the year before, an increase of almost 200,000 tourists.

“I do think that there is a Trump effect, but I don’t think it’s only a Trump effect. … Mexico is an attractive possibility for Canadians … and we see that reflected in the numbers,” Sara Ranghi, marketing director for Meliá Hotels International, told the CBC.

Francisco Madrid, director of STARC, forecast that airlines will not miss the opportunity presented by the Trump effect to take advantage of the Canadian market. 

“The Canadian market made a big difference in 2025, growing by approximately 12 to 13%,” he said.

With reports from El Economista, Forbes Magazine and CBC

Editor’s note: The headline of this article has been updated, as the original headline did not accurately reflect the content of the story. We regret the error.