A Bank of Mexico deputy governor anticipates that the Mexican economy will grow by less than 1% this year, a prediction that is below the central bank’s own forecast.
Gabriel Cuadra, one of five members of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) board, made his prediction during a webinar organized by the Latin American Reserve Fund and the Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean.
“Personally, I believe it is very likely that economic growth this year will fall even below the lower end of the range we are considering —in other words, [I think] we’ll have economic growth below 1%,” Cuadra said.
Banxico is currently forecasting that the Mexican economy will grow in the range of 1% to 2.2% in 2026.
In making his forecast, Cuadra took the quarter-over-quarter contraction of 0.8% in the first three months of the year into account. Annual growth in the first quarter was just 0.2%.
Mexican economy contracts 0.8% in the first quarter of the year
Cuadra described the first-quarter contraction as significant, and noted that it was larger than expected. Indeed, the quarter-over-quarter contraction was the worst result for the Mexican economy in any first quarter since 2020. It came after annual growth of just 0.8% in 2025.
In light of the first quarter result, Cuadra anticipated that the Bank of Mexico would review its current 2026 growth forecast, which was included in its most recent quarterly report, published in late February.
In recent times, Mexico’s economy has been growing very slowly in annual terms, even as foreign direct investment and exports hit record highs in 2025 and international tourist numbers increased more than 6%.
Economist Santiago Levy asserted last week that low productivity is the main reason why the Mexican economy hasn’t grown more quickly in recent years.
Finance Minister: Mexico is ‘ready to grow’
The federal Finance Ministry (SHCP) forecasts that the Mexican economy will grow in the range of 1.8%-2.8% this year. That forecast was included in the ministry’s “General Economic Policy Preliminary Guidelines for 2027” document, which was submitted to both houses of Congress last month and which will inform the 2027 budget.
On Monday, Finance Minister Édgar Amador Zamora said that he and his government colleagues were “convinced” that the Mexican economy will recover strongly from the first-quarter contraction.
“There will be a very significant revitalization of the country’s economy,” he said, adding that public sector, private sector and “mixed” (public-private) investment will drive the recovery.
“There is a very ambitious effort, vision and strategy to catalyze public and mixed investment as drivers of economic development,” Amador said at a conference organized by the Economics Faculty at the National Autonomous University (UNAM).
He also said that Plan México — the government’s ambitious economic initiative — includes a range of projects that will help Mexico to achieve sustained growth of 3% per year in the near future.
“Mexico is ready to grow, to grow in a sustained way,” Amador said.
Among the other growth forecasts for the Mexican economy in 2026 are the following:
- The International Monetary Fund is forecasting 1.6% growth.
- The World Bank is forecasting 1.3% growth.
- The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development is also forecasting 1.3% growth.
With reports from Bloomberg Línea and Reforma
