Wednesday, June 19, 2024

Poll: Xóchitl Gálvez most popular opposition candidate for president

National Action Party (PAN) Senator Xóchitl Gálvez is the most popular opposition candidate with non-Morena voters for the presidential race coming in 2024, according to a new El Financiero poll.

With 22% of respondents saying they prefer her as the candidate to run against the Morena Party candidate for president, Gálvez jumped nine points from a previous poll earlier in July and now stands six points ahead of the second most popular choice, PAN deputy Santiago Creel, who was chosen by 16% of respondents in the latest poll results.

Deputy Santiago Creel and his wife
Federal deputy Santiago Creel (left) arrives with his wife to register as a candidate for the Broad Front for Mexico. He was the second most popular choice by poll respondents regarding who they want to see run against the ruling Morena Party candidate. (Daniel Augusto/Cuartoscuro)

Positive opinions of Gálvez also moved forward two points to 36%, compared to the previous poll.

In third place was former tourism minister Enrique de la Madrid of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) with 12% support. The top three were followed by Beatriz Paredes (PRI), who was chosen by 8% of respondents, and former Governor of Michoacán Silvano Aureoles of the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD), who got 3% support. 

The Frente Amplio por México (Broad Front for Mexico) is an opposition coalition that will represent the PAN, PRI and PRD in the run for president next year. Together, they will nominate a single candidate from among their parties to contest the June 2024 election. While there will not be a direct-voting process by rank-and-file party members to choose the coalition candidate, party leaders have said they will take the will of party members into account.

The two frontrunners to win the Morena candidacy are generally agreed to be former Mexico City mayor Claudia Sheinbaum and former foreign affairs minister Marcelo Ebrard. 

Angry AMLO
Incumbent president López Obrador has repeatedly railed against Gálvez. The election authority INE has recetly ordered him to cease comment on his perceived electoral rival. (Moisés Pablo/Cuartoscuro)

Almost all the other opposition options considered in the poll also showed some forward movement in favorable opinions toward them compared to the previous poll: Santiago Creel jumped four points from 27% to 31%, while Beatriz Paredes moved forward two points from 25% to 27%. 

Enrique de la Madrid, however, showed a decrease of 1%, going from 29% to 28%.

Approval ratings for the potential candidates went largely along party lines, with Gálvez proving the first choice amongst PAN voters, at 49%, and de la Madrid the top candidate for PRI supporters, at 50%.

While some of the opposition candidates considered in the poll, such as Creel, Aureoles and Parades had been courting the idea of running a campaign in the last few months, Senator Gálvez has only emerged as a candidate in the last two weeks, making her ride to the top of the polls somewhat unexpected.  Her visibility as a presidential candidate has only been amplified by President López Obrador’s frequent disparagement of her recently during his morning press conferences, known as “the mañaneras.” The frequent verbal attacks led Gálvez to report López Obrador to the National Electoral Institute (INE), accusing him of conducting gender political violence with his remarks about her. 

Mexico 2024 presidential candidates Claudia Sheinbaum and Marcelo Ebard
Some analysts theorize that the reason AMLO has been quick to label Gálvez as part of the “mafia of power” is because her working class Otomi roots could appeal to Morena’s large working-class base, posing a threat to Morena frontrunners Claudia Sheinbaum and Marcelo Ebrard. (Andrea Murcia Monsivais and Adolfo Vladimir/Cuartoscuro)

On July 13, the INE ordered López Obrador to stop making public comments and expressing opinions about electoral issues after he implied that Gálvez was unduly influenced by former president Vicente Fox and a so-called “mafia of power,” a supposed cabal consisting of additional former presidents and party leaders.

When asked if it was acceptable for López Obrador to give his opinion or make public statements about the presidential contenders, 45% of respondents said it was fine, while 35% said it was not. 

Fifty-eight percent of respondents also considered the president’s recent criticism of Gálvez for having sold tamales on the street to support herself in her youth as “bad” or “very bad,” while 22% did not see a problem with AMLO’s statements. 

With reports from El Financiero.

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