A few days ago, NASA’s Artemis II rocket launched from Kennedy Space Center. It is carrying a crew on a trip around the Moon and safely back home. I’m using Artemis II as a metaphor to explain where North America stands right now in demographic terms.
Our shared “rocket” — the United States, Canada and Mexico working together under the USMCA — has already launched toward steady growth and stronger development through 2050 and beyond. The goal is simple: reach high and fast, building a competitive economy while coming back safely without running out of fuel.
Looking for Parts 2 and 3? Catch up on Pedro Casas’s latest series of articles here.
The first-stage engine (the one that gets us out of the atmosphere) is our own birth rates. Unfortunately, they are running low: around 1.6 children per woman across the region (way below the replacement rate). It will help us launch and take some nice pictures, but that’s pretty much it. Once we are past the atmosphere — and that will happen very fast — we need a second booster.
The real second-stage boost comes from migration and talent moving across borders.
As you can see in the Congressional Budget Office chart below (to which I added some emojis), the rocket has just launched and the U.S. has only a few years of population growth left on its own. By 2030, native population growth (births minus deaths) hits zero (let that one sink in). Time to activate the second booster: migration. Even with optimistic predictions, the U.S. runs out of gas by 2056, when overall population growth stalls and population decline officially begins. Houston, we have a problem!
Now imagine that while we’re all watching Artemis II fly off live, a very different rocket blasts off from China and its Southeast Asian neighbors. Uh-oh — it seems like we’re in a race. China’s rocket — let’s call it The Overshoot Express — is supposedly fueled by huge population numbers.
But the latest UN World Population Prospects 2024 Revision reveals the punchline. China has already peaked and is losing people faster than any large country in modern times. Its population could drop by more than 200 million by 2054, with fertility down to just 1.01 children per woman.
The whole East and Southeast Asia region has been revised downward as well. In a world where the UN now expects the global population to peak earlier and lower than previously thought — around 10.3 billion in 2084 — the winners will not be those with the largest headcount at launch. They will be the ones whose rocket was built for smart integration, with a powerful second booster.
As you can see, we North Americans are playing a completely different ball game. Our initial fuel tank is almost ten times smaller. So yes, we need to compete smarter with our reserve tank: migration, talent mobility, demographic complementarity — call it what you want.
The current system doesn’t help. Visa backlogs, mismatched credentials and misguided fears of “brain drain” and “job stealing” keep talent locked in silos. We are leaving money, innovation and jobs on the table because we keep politicizing the issue instead of tackling it head-on. In rocket terms, we might be risking not reaching the Moon.
How do we win the race? An efficient talent policy is the best way forward. Why? (This is a good moment to read my previous article on demographics.)
Opinion: Could Mexico make America great again? Zeroing in on the demographics
First, it fills real labor gaps. U.S. projections show 190 million job openings by 2033, with 26% in high-retirement fields such as engineering and nursing. Managed mobility could cover 10–15% of those gaps and boost GDP by 1–2% per year (McKinsey).
Second, it accelerates innovation. Knowledge moving back and forth drives 20–30% faster regional progress in integrated economies (OECD).
Third, it spreads prosperity more evenly. Returnees start 20% more businesses, and remittances fuel local investment (IOM).
Fourth, it strengthens security. Better-tracked migration flows reduce irregular migration by 30–50% and shrink opportunities for trafficking (EU experience).
And these are only a few examples.
We don’t need to invent this from scratch. Europe, Australia and ASEAN already run smart programs that move talent without chaos. North America can adapt them with four practical steps that build on what we already have under the USMCA.
- Update the TN visa to TN 2.0. Expand it to include fields such as AI, semiconductors and clean energy; streamline paperwork online; and add short 3-5 year circular options so workers can go home with new skills and return later. No open borders — just targeted, temporary boosts.
- Create regional skills certificates. Pilot trilateral programs in high-demand fields so that a Mexican technician certified in Monterrey can work in Detroit without starting from scratch, and a U.S. engineer can train teams in Guadalajara and bring fresh ideas home.
- Build circular migration pathways with real incentives. Re-entry guarantees, portable pensions and small reinvestment funds for returnees who start businesses or train others. Tie them to safe logistics corridors so everything remains legal and secure.
- Fund cross-border talent hubs. Think apprenticeships in Tijuana-San Diego, joint AI boot camps in Austin-Monterrey, or exchanges between the Illinois Universities System and UNAM in Mexico City for quantum computing. Short-term instructor visas could create positive “brain circulation” loops.
These steps are practical, not radical. They rely on existing USMCA chapters on labor (C.23) and digital trade (C.19), remain rights-based and could actually reduce irregular flows by making legal pathways more attractive.
Before concluding, a quick note on the geographical dimension. The vast majority of U.S. territory is aging, while the Sunbelt is booming. The latest Cooper Center (University of Virginia) projections show the South and West adding 6-8 % more people each decade through 2050, with Texas, Florida and the border states leading the trend. That is not random luck; it is geography meeting demographics head-on.
The U.S. southern border is no longer just a line on a map; it is the launchpad for North America’s next rocket (It actually is. Literally and figuratively. Now, do me/you a favor and spend four minutes reading my article about the border).
When youthful Mexican talent flows north through those same Sunbelt corridors and skilled Americans reinforce Mexican capital infrastructure — feeding factories, data centers and energy hubs — the rocket does not just stay aloft. It accelerates.
Demographics and geography are finally working together, turning our shared border into the most powerful second-stage booster the continent has ever had.
Talent on the move is not a threat to be managed. It is the quiet second-stage engine that could turn North America’s demographic imbalance into its greatest asset. We already have the pieces: youthful Mexico, experienced U.S. and Canada and shared trade rules. What we need is the imagination (political will?) to connect them.
When we do, the regional utopia stops being a dream and starts looking like the most dynamic and inclusive rocket on Earth. The round trip to the Moon is only the beginning. Next stop: Mars.
Pedro Casas Alatriste is the Executive Vice President and CEO of the American Chamber of Commerce of Mexico (AmCham). Previously, he has been the Director of Research and Public Policy at the US-Mexico Foundation in Washington, D.C. and the Coordinator of International Affairs at the Business Coordinating Council (CCE). He has also served as a consultant to the Inter-American Development Bank. Follow his Substack here.
