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‘October 2 is not forgotten’: Thursday’s mañanera recapped

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President Sheinbaum
The president expressed solidarity with the victims of the Tlatelolco massacre on its 57th anniversary. (Galo Cañas / Cuartoscuro)

“Today is October 2,” President Claudia Sheinbaum said at the start of her Thursday morning press conference.

“October 2 is not forgotten,” she added.

Sheinbaum looks at a photo of soldiers from the Tlatelolco massacre at her morning press conference
A portion of the morning press conference was dedicated to remembering the military massacre. (Juan Carlos Buenrostro / Presidencia)

Thursday is the 57th anniversary of the Tlatelolco massacre, in which hundreds of protesting students were killed by the military in Mexico City.

Sheinbaum expressed her government’s “solidarity” with the students who died on Oct. 2, 1968, and with “all of the political prisoners” of that time.

“This is the first thing,” she said before ceding center stage to Energy Minister Elena Luz González, who outlined two new regulations for the transportation and distribution of LP gas.

Football over finance 

A reporter asked Sheinbaum about the criticism the Morena party’s top senator, Adán Augusto López Hernández, faced after he was caught watching a soccer match on his tablet in the Senate during an appearance on Wednesday by Finance Minister Édgar Amador.

The president responded that the issue didn’t concern her.

Asked whether López Hernández’s conduct affected the image of Morena, Sheinbaum responded:

“I’m not going to get involved in that.”

Morena is Mexico’s ruling party, founded by former president Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Sheinbaum represented the party in the 2024 presidential election.

López Hernández could conceivably see the criticism over his football watching in the Senate as a welcome distraction from the accusations he faces related to the alleged criminal activity of the man who served as his security minister when he was governor of Tabasco.

Hernán Bermúdez Requena, security minister in Tabasco between 2019 and 2024, is accused of heading a Jalisco New Generation Cartel-affiliated crime group called La Barredora. He was arrested in Paraguay last month and is now in a federal prison in México state.

Senator Adán Augusto López watches a soccer game on a tablet during a Senate session
Watching sports during work hours is one of the less serious charges Morena senator Adán Augusto López Hernández has faced recently. (Graciela López / Cuartoscuro)

Opposition politicians and others have claimed it is not possible that López Hernández was unaware of the alleged criminal activity of his security minister in Tabasco.

* In case you were wondering, López Hernández was watching the UEFA Champions League match between Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain, which the latter team won 2-1.

A fortified National Palace 

A reporter asked the president about the metal barriers that have been installed around the National Palace, located opposite the Zócalo, Mexico City’s main square, in the historic center of the capital.

The barriers were erected ahead of the annual march that takes place on Oct. 2 to commemorate the Tlatelolco massacre.

Sheinbaum said that the barriers have been put up to protect the National Palace during protests for “years.”

“… There are these groups who cover their faces and carry out actions with dangerous devices,” she said, adding that on many occasions they have attempted to set alight the National Palace’s main door.

People hold signs and banners in front of the National Palace, which is surrounded by metal barricades
The metal barricades were already in place in the capital’s Zócalo on Monday when the organization Comité 68 held a press conference ahead of Thursday’s commemorative activities. (Mario Jasso / Cuartoscuro)

“If you put police in front of a situation of this kind where there is aggression, there will be a confrontation,” Sheinbaum said.

“And, in addition, you put the police at risk because the Mexico City police, at least, are trained not to repress but simply to contain,” said the former Mexico City mayor.

“So it’s better to put up a physical barrier to avoid this situation, rather than having a confrontation with police officers,” Sheinbaum said.

No plan to break diplomatic relations with Israel

After she denounced Israel’s interception of a flotilla transporting aid to Gaza and called for the immediate repatriation of six Mexicans who were detained by Israeli forces, Sheinbaum was asked whether her government would break off diplomatic relations with Israel.

“Until now it has not been considered,” the president said.

Sheinbaum subsequently highlighted that Mexico was among “the first countries” to file a complaint in The Hague related to the conflict in Gaza.

Sheinbaum calls for immediate return of Mexicans detained by Israel

In January 2024, Mexico and Chile “referred the situation in the State of Palestine to the International Criminal Court for investigation into the probable commission of crimes within its jurisdiction,” according to Mexico’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Sheinbaum also noted that her government formally recognized the Palestinian Embassy in Mexico.

“It had not been recognized as such” before, she said.

By Mexico News Daily chief staff writer Peter Davies (peter.davies@mexiconewsdaily.com)

Querétaro’s airport is getting a hotel, a shopping plaza, more parking — and eventually a spaceport

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QRO airport
Passenger numbers have been increasing at the Querétaro International Airport, rising 25% in the first quarter of this year alone. (Querétaro International Airport)

The ongoing expansion of the Querétaro International Airport (QRO) will include an on-site hotel,  a shopping plaza and a larger parking area, state Sustainable Development Minister Marco Del Prete Tercero announced on Monday. 

Those amenities are in addition to improvements to the airport itself. “We have six hectares available for the passenger terminal, and we have two polygons, each four hectares, to expand services,” Del Prete said.

One of the airport features slated for improvement with the current expansion is parking. (Querétaro International Airport)

Also, he said, a launch and landing site for spacecraft will be developed on the terrain to help make the airport more competitive.

An additional 100 hectares of land is available for companies looking to operate at the airport. For example, in March, DHL Express Mexico launched its US $120 million expanded air hub at QRO, adding 30,000 square meters of new infrastructure, which the company said was its most advanced and highest-capacity facility to date in Latin America.

“The airport continues to grow thanks to passenger preference, thanks to its location,” Del Prete said of the ongoing expansion. “The airside is satisfied; they have a high capacity, and the landside continues to be occupied.” 

Del Prete added that while the runways are around 20 years old, they are still among the most modern thanks to their innovative design. The runway has an operational length of 4.1 km, said the minister. 

In May, the Infrastructure, Communications and Transportation Ministry reported that QRO saw a 25% rise in passenger numbers in the first quarter of 2025 compared to last year, with domestic passenger traffic increasing by 34.9% in that period. 

An 80-million-peso (US$4.3 million) expansion was completed at QRO in 2023, which increased the airport’s passenger capacity and encouraged airlines to open new flight routes. 

With reports from Expreso Querétaro, Diario de Querétaro and Mexico Business News

Finalists in México Canta — the anti-narco-culture singing contest — face off Sunday on live TV

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Poster fort Mexico Canta
The singing contest featuring performers age 18-34 from Mexico and the United States has been wildly popular, regularly drawing 4 million viewers in Mexico alone. (Mexico Canta)

The stage is set for the highly anticipated grand finale of “México Canta,” a singing competition akin to “American Idol” with one overriding rule: Songs that glorify the lives of cartels, violence or drug trafficking are not allowed.

The finals of “México Canta por la paz y contra las adicciones” (“Mexico Sings for Peace and Against Addiction”) will be held Sunday night at the Esperanza Iris City Theater in Mexico City and televised live.

LIla Downs singing on stage
The esteemed Oaxaca-born performer Lila Downs was not a México Canta participant, of course, but she did give a presentation at one of the earlier shows along with the regional women’s band Mujeres del Viento Florido (Women of the Flowery Wind). (Sayuri Calderón / Secretaría de Cultura)

A binational initiative from the Mexican government, the contest concludes after months of auditions and semifinals throughout the United States and Mexico.

“México Canta” drew more than 15,000 applicants, ranging in age from 18 to 34, with eligibility extending to those singing in Spanish, Indigenous languages or Spanglish. 

More than 350 selected participants were whittled down to 48 who competed in regional semifinals held between Aug. 17 and Sept. 21 in Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles, Tijuana, Oaxaca and Mexico City.

Inspired by soaring ratings and fierce public interest, the event rapidly evolved into must-see television, regularly drawing viewership of over 4 million in Mexico, and further extending its reach to Mexican-American audiences through U.S. cable and streaming platforms.

Singer during México Canta
Contestants come from both sides of the Mexico-U.S. border, but there’s no singing in pure English. All songs are in Spanish, Spanglish or an Indigenous language. Pictured: Sergio Maya of Hidalgo. (México Canta/Facebook)

Set against the backdrop of Mexico’s current musical culture — where the controversial “narco-corrido” genre (or corridos tumbados) has dominated charts with its odes to the drug trade — “México Canta” set out with a mission.

Francisco Arturo Barrios, a former member of the popular band Botellita de Jerez who goes by the name Mastuerzo, praised the government’s goal of avoiding the glorification of crime in music.

“I think it’s commendable that they try to stimulate the creation of other themes,” he said.

The show culminated in a special episode last weekend that highlighted the best moments from the semifinals. Esteemed Mexican performers Lila Downs and the regional women’s band Mujeres del Viento Florido (Women of the Flowery Wind) underscored the show’s emphasis on community and empowerment.

The list of 10 finalists — a mosaic of emerging talent from both sides of the border — includes the winners of each U.S. semifinal: Illinois resident Blue Malboro, originally from Guanajuato; Carolina Imperial from the Houston regional; and the duet Asália and Norma from the L.A. regional.

In addition, there was one “jury pick” by the Mexican Music Council and three “rescued” contestants who were so good they also deserved a spot in the finals. These four spots include Lolita from the Chicago regional and individual performers Mike León and Brian Sebastián Muñoz from the L.A. regional (who will perform in the finals as a duet).

"Yo soy mexicana" - Carolina Imperial | México Canta por la Paz y contra las Adicciones

The Mexican finalists are Galia Siurob from Tijuana, Carmen María González from Mexico City, Sergio Maya from Hidalgo and Roger Quiñones Esparza (a rescued finalist) from Yucatán.

The contest, said judge América Sierra, aims to provide life-changing opportunities.

“Being part of this jury and being part of the story of so many young people pursuing their dreams … fills me with great satisfaction,” Sierra said. “For many of them, their musical careers begin here.”

The winner will reportedly receive a record deal with a major label, including the production of music videos. 

In conjunction with the finals, the public will be able to vote online in two categories: best performer and best composer.

The event Sunday will air from 7 to 9 p.m. Mexico City time on Canal Once, Canal 22 and Canal 14; the first two are on various platforms and cable systems in the United States. Additionally, the show is expected to be streamed live on YouTube channels, such as the official Gobierno de México and Secretaría de Cultura accounts.

With reports from El Universal, Infobae and The World


Have you been following Mexico's viral singing competition? Let us know who you're rooting for in the comments.

Opinion: It’s time for Mexico to stop flaring its precious natural gas

The bright flame of natural gas flaring
Mexico and state oil company Pemex flared 5.7 billion cubic meters of natural gas last year, even as the country imports natural gas from the U.S. (Shutterstock)

Long one of the world’s leading oil producers, Mexico is also among the top nine countries that together account for 75% of global methane emissions from gas flaring and venting. It is a dubious ranking that has not gone unnoticed. Indeed, for years Mexico has signaled its intent to reduce methane emissions. There are obvious climate and emission reduction goals but also important energy security aspects that are increasingly relevant.

Cutting flaring — the practice of burning off unwanted natural gas at oil and gas sites, converting methane that would otherwise escape into the atmosphere into carbon dioxide — through better maintenance and gas capture technology is widely seen as low-hanging fruit. In 2016, the country endorsed the World Bank’s Zero Routine Flaring by 2030 initiative and reaffirmed that pledge in 2025. Then in 2018, the Peña Nieto administration enacted one of the world’s most ambitious methane regulations in the oil and gas sector. It mandated leak detection and repair, vapor recovery systems, low-bleed technologies and reduced-emission completions, aiming to cut sector methane emissions by around 75% by 2025. In its 2022 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the United Nations, Mexico committed to lowering its total greenhouse gas emissions by 35% by 2030, including a goal to utilize 98% of methane from oil and gas operations. That’s the good news.

A view of the Pemex Olmeca refinery on the coast of Dos Bocas, Tabasco.
A gas flare burns at the top of a tower at Pemex’s Olmeca Refinery in Dos Bocas, Tabasco. (Gobierno de México)

Despite these stated ambitions, Mexico and its state oil company, Pemex, are not effecting positive change. In 2024, the country flared 5.7 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas, up from 5.5 bcm in 2023. Even more troubling, flaring intensity rose from 7.8 cubic meters per barrel in 2023 to 8.5 cubic meters per barrel in 2024. Aging infrastructure and maturing oil wells make gas management more difficult, but there are also signs of simple neglect — and non-compliance with the nation’s own goals and objectives. A 2024 Reuters report revealed that Pemex deliberately delayed repairs on failing equipment at its Zaap-C platform in the Gulf of Mexico, allowing methane to vent into the atmosphere for months. (Venting refers to releasing natural gas directly without combustion.)

This more recent backsliding occurred during the final years of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s administration, which ended in October 2024. His successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, has presented herself as more climate-focused and has signaled that Pemex will end costly flaring practices.

Energy security in the Trump era

There is a very compelling geopolitical argument and context. Today Mexico imports about 70% of its natural gas, almost entirely from the United States. That dependence looks manageable when markets are calm and Washington is cooperative, but it becomes a glaring vulnerability in the face of potential political and environmental shocks. During the 2021 Texas freeze, disruptions in natural gas supply left almost 5 million households and businesses in northern Mexico without power. The second iteration of a Trump administration has been nothing but volatile to nearshore relationships, using tariffs to bully partners to the negotiation table. Similarly, renegotiations of the USMCA review are scheduled for 2026, posing a credible risk that Trump will use those to further leverage America’s resources.

Mexico cannot end its dependence on U.S. gas overnight, but capturing and utilizing what is now flared and vented would make the country more resilient to unforeseen shocks. Every molecule of methane redirected from a flare stack into a pipeline is a molecule that does not have to be bargained for across the border. It is a buffer against weather emergencies, pipeline politics and the whims of U.S. electoral cycles.

Pemex denies massive methane leak reported in Gulf of Mexico

For a country with a state-owned oil company and an environmentalist president who has promised to reclaim climate leadership, this is an obvious step toward a more sovereign and secure energy sector. Mexico cannot eliminate its reliance on U.S. gas overnight, but by turning its flaring and venting waste into a usable resource it can greatly reduce exposure to external shocks while creating tangible domestic benefits.

What natural gas capture could look like

For Mexico, the path forward to positively impacting and significantly reducing flaring and venting is not a mystery. The International Energy Agency estimates that about 40% of methane emissions from oil and gas operations worldwide could be cut at no net cost, since the value of the captured gas exceeds the expense of the equipment needed. The economics are positive and point to many projects with the potential for quickly amortizing investments, especially with support from climate finance or green bond funding.

In practice, modular compressors and flare gas recovery systems, already deployed in dozens of producing countries, could turn wasted natural gas into revenue. Pemex itself projects that reaching zero routine flaring by 2030 will require over US $2 billion in capital outlays. Alone, it’s a significant figure, but much smaller next to its annual budget and what Mexico spends each year on imported U.S. gas.

The potential resource gain from capturing natural gas from wasteful systems is not trivial. Mexico’s 5.7 bcm of flared natural gas in 2024, if captured and treated, could have displaced roughly 8.5% of the 66.7 bcm in pipeline imports Mexico bought from the United States. What is now flared and vented could supply enough fuel to power millions of Mexican homes or to stabilize electricity supply in southeastern industrial regions, where shortages have been chronic.

Energy security meets economic security

The benefits of curtailing flaring and venting extend beyond the balance sheet. Mexico has the chance to slash its greenhouse gas footprint, help Pemex meet its climate commitments as part of its sustainability plan, and improve the company’s credibility with lenders who are increasingly reluctant to finance fossil fuel firms. It would also create jobs in the service sector for installing and operating the needed infrastructure.

And that is before accounting for the costs being assumed by Mexican society. Climate-driven disasters such as hurricanes, heatwaves and droughts are already wreaking havoc across the region. At the local level, flaring in southeast Mexico has also been linked to a range of adverse health outcomes, imposing incalculable losses in healthcare spending and quality of life for communities living in extraction zones.

With much uncertainty on the horizon, even a modest 8.5% gain in natural gas self-sufficiency could prove decisive. It could also serve as great domestic politics for the Sheinbaum administration, marrying her desire to be seen as more ambitious on climate action as well as economic security in the face of the non-stop challenges emanating from the U.S. administration in Washington.


Jeremy M. Martin is Vice President for Energy and Sustainability at the Institute of the Americas, an inter-American public policy think-tank located at the UC San Diego.

Paul Youngblood is a researcher with the Institute of the Americas’ Energy & Sustainability program and a graduate student at UC San Diego’s School of Global Policy and Strategy.

Sheinbaum calls for immediate return of Mexicans detained by Israel

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Two photos, one of a Mexican activist Arlin Medrano and one of president Claudia Sheinbaum
UNAM political science student Arlín Medrano, right, is one of the Mexican activists detained by Israeli forces on Wednesday. (Presidencia/Arlín Medrano)

President Claudia Sheinbaum on Thursday called for the immediate repatriation of six Mexicans who were taken to Israel after Israeli forces intercepted a flotilla that was carrying aid bound for the war-torn Gaza Strip.

On Wednesday, the Israeli Navy intercepted numerous boats that were part of the Global Sumud Flotilla and detained hundreds of people who were on board the vessels.

People in life vests on a small boat raise their hands in the air while a gun can be seen pointing at them from off camera
The Israeli Navy detained hundreds of activists approaching the Gaza Strip in small vessles as part of the Global Sumud Flotilla on Wednesday. (Global Sumud Flotilla via NBC News)

The Guardian reported that the flotilla consisted of “more than 40 civilian boats carrying about 500 parliamentarians, lawyers and activists” and was “heading towards Gaza bringing humanitarian aid despite repeated warnings from Israel to turn back.”

The vessels, which departed from various Mediterranean ports, “were sailing in international waters north of Egypt on Wednesday afternoon when the interceptions began,” the Guardian reported.

Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on social media on Thursday that “none of the Hamas-Sumud provocation yachts” had “succeeded in its attempt to enter an active combat zone or breach the lawful naval blockade” off the coast of Gaza.

“All the passengers are safe and in good health. They are making their way safely to Israel, from where they will be deported to Europe,” it said.

Sheinbaum said that six Mexicans who were traveling on vessels that were part of the flotilla were in Ashdod, a port city about 40 kilometers south of Tel Aviv.

She said that the Mexicans — three women and three men — hadn’t yet received consular assistance. Mexico’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (SRE) subsequently said on social media that officials from the Mexican Embassy in Israel had traveled to Ashdod to “directly verify the conditions on the ground, request consular access, and ensure that … [the] safety and integrity [of the Mexicans] is respected, in accordance with applicable international law.”

The SRE said that the six Mexicans and other “participants in the flotilla” would be taken to the Ktzi’ot detention center. The ministry said that another Mexican on board a legal support vessel was headed to Cyprus.

Sheinbaum had noted that Israeli authorities said that the Mexicans would be taken to a detention facility.

“… We’re obviously against this situation. Humanitarian aid has to reach Gaza, and our Mexican brothers and sisters — everyone — but in particular our compatriots have to be immediately repatriated because they didn’t commit any crime,” she said.

Sheinbaum said that her government had sent four diplomatic notes to Israel.

Six Mexicans pose with a Palestine and Mexican flag
Six Mexicans who had joined the flotilla were among those detained. (Arlín Medrano)

The first, sent three days ago, requested “physical guarantees for our compatriots,” she said.

Sheinbaum said that the second diplomatic note, sent on Tuesday, asked Israel to explain the grounds on which the Mexicans would be “intercepted,” if that indeed happened.

The third diplomatic note, sent after the flotilla was intercepted, demanded the “comprehensive physical safety of our compatriots,” while the fourth requested the “immediate repatriation” of the six Mexicans, she said.

“They’re detained in the port [of Ashdod], they haven’t yet taken them to the detention center. … There is no reason for them to be detained,” Sheinbaum said.

“They haven’t committed any crime and they should be handed over to Mexican authorities [in Israel] for their repatriation,” she said.

“And we demand for the humanitarian aid to arrive [in Gaza] and for this harassment against Gaza to stop,” Sheinbaum said.

Mexicanas en flotilla a Gaza interceptadas por Israel; piden ayuda a Sheinbaum

The SRE said in a statement on Wednesday that the Mexicans had no purpose other than to “offer humanitarian aid.”

It said they are “peaceful” people without links to any “violent groups.”

People in Mexico affiliated with the flotilla released video messages from two Mexican women who were taken to Israel after the interception of aid-carrying vessels.

“Hello, my name is Arlín Medrano and if you are watching this video it’s because we were illegally intercepted in international waters by the Israeli occupation,” says Medrano as she holds up her Mexican passport.

Sol González Eguía conveyed a similar message in her video.

Mexico News Daily 

A new migrant caravan is heading north from Chiapas, but it’s not US-bound 

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crowd of refugees
Refugees fleeing repression in Central America and Cuba can find themselves trapped in Chiapas, with little hope of employment or regularization. So they tend to head north. (Damián Sánchez/Cuartoscuro)

More than 1,000 migrants have set out together from southern Mexico, but they have no intention of trying to reach the United States.  

Instead, their goal is to get to Mexico City, where they hope to expedite their asylum claims and regularize their legal status in this country.

refugee caravan in Chiapas.
The new caravan is similar, though larger, to the one shown here that left Chiapas in August, also with Mexico City and not the U.S. border as its destination. (Damian Sánchez/Cuartoscuro)

The 1,100-kilometer trek on foot to Mexico City is fraught with difficulty: extreme temperatures, rain, food and water shortages, as well as the constant risk of abuse, extortion and violence.

But staying in Chiapas where there are few job opportunities is not an option, so the migrants — primarily from Cuba, but also from Honduras, Ecuador, Brazil and Haiti — began heading north on Wednesday.

For the past eight years or so, dozens of caravans have set out from Chiapas, the southernmost state in Mexico, with one goal: to cross the northern border and reach the United States.

However, that mindset changed after U.S. President Donald Trump took office in January, introducing and enforcing strict immigration policies and discouraging asylum seekers.

Since Trump took office, the migratory flow has dried up. Activists on Mexico’s southern border report a drop of up to 80%, according to the newspaper El País. There used to be camps on the Guatemala side of the Suchiate River where hundreds or thousands of migrants gathered, but the area is virtually empty. The few who cross do so in secret.

The current group is just the second to coalesce in Chiapas since Trump took office and, like the caravan that departed Tapachula in August, leaders say they aren’t planning to  make their way to the U.S.

When questioned by a reporter from El País, a 37-year-old Cuban woman scoffed at the notion of traveling to the U.S.

“Why would I want to go to the United States?” responded Esther López. “They hate us there! All I want is to get to Mexico City where my friend is waiting for me so I can make a life for myself there.” 

Vladimir Ortiz Cassola, another Cuban immigrant, was of the same opinion. 

“The United States isn’t on my mind,” he told CNN en Español. “We want to regularize our status here … nothing more than that, so we can work and contribute to this nation.” 

But in addition to the lack of jobs in Tapachula, the local office of the Commission for Refugee Assistance (Comar) is seen as little more than a bureaucratic roadblock. 

Migrants in the caravan reported waits of up to 10 months with little to show for it and work is hard to find without legal documentation. Others said people posing as lawyers help with the processing, but for exorbitant fees. Still others spoke of being scammed by these “lawyers.”

Before departing for Mexico City, a spokesman for the migrants spoke of the dire situation they face: “We’re leaving Tapachula because we’re trapped here. They won’t give us papers to live formally, and to obtain them we have to pay up to 20,000 pesos (US $1,080).”

On occasion, Mexican authorities have allowed migrant caravans to proceed for a few days before offering to help with their documents or provide transportation.

With reports from The Associated Press, El País and CNN en Español

Analysts foresee long-term rate cuts as inflation creeps up

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CDMX centro
Private sector analysts mostly agreed with recent forecasts from major public organizations in seeing modest growth for the Mexican economy over the next year. (Shutterstock)

For the fourth consecutive month, private sector analysts have raised their expectations for economic growth in Mexico this year, while reducing their year-end inflation estimates for the third straight month.

The results of the monthly survey conducted by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) indicate the central bank is expected to continue the monetary easing policy that has seen the Board of Governors lower the benchmark interest rate at 10 meetings in a row. 

magnifying glass
The private analysts’ predictions came out in a survey by Mexico’s central bank in which 45 prominent Mexican analyst groups and consulting firms provided their insights. (Banxico)

The 45 national and international private-sector economic analysis groups and consulting firms that participated in the survey projected Mexico’s year-end growth in GDP to be 0.53%, up from 0.46% predicted in August. The survey had estimated back in May that 2025 would end with only 0.18% growth. 

At the same time, these experts anticipate GDP growth of 1.33% for next year — slightly lower than the 1.34% they projected last month and well below the 1.75% they expected in January.

Regarding consumer prices, the survey sees inflation reaching 3.85% by year-end, a downward adjustment from the 3.95% estimated in the August survey, and below Banxico’s own 4% projection. 

However, September survey projections surpass the 3.74% mark registered during the first two weeks of September, which itself was above the 3.57% increase seen in August.

While Banxico expects inflation to converge toward its target of 3% by the third-quarter of 2026, those surveyed don’t anticipate a similar reduction. Instead, the analysts project inflation will register a variation of 3.80% in 2026 and 3.71% in 2027.

Still, the newspaper El Economista reported that “the anticipated context for inflation and growth [as represented in the survey] will lead the Board of Governors to continue its cycle of cuts.”

In its most recent meeting on Sept. 25, Banxico reduced the overnight interbank interest rate to 7.5%, its lowest level since May 2022.

The experts surveyed expect the benchmark rate to end the year at 7.14%, and anticipate the central bank will continue its rate-cutting, lowering the rate to 6.54 percent by year-end 2026.

Finally, the analysts’ perceptions of the current economic environment were not bullish: 81% believe the economy is no better than it was a year ago; 16% anticipate the business climate will worsen; 25% believe it will improve; and 59% believe it will remain the same.

With reports from El Economista and Ovaciones

President Sheinbaum’s first year in office in 12 numbers: Part 2

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President Sheinbaum carries a Mexican flag, flanked by military
President Sheinbaum bears a Mexican flag at the national celebration of Flag Day in February. (Presidencia)

President Claudia Sheinbaum is now officially in the second year of her six-year term: 366 days down, more than 1,800 still to go.

To mark the occasion of the first anniversary of her presidency, Mexico News Daily published Part 1 of “President Sheinbaum’s first year in office in 12 numbers” on Wednesday.

Here is Part 2.

32

This is the number of federal entities in Mexico, all of which Sheinbaum visited during her first year in office. 

While the president lives in Mexico City, she travels to la provincia — a term used in Mexico to describe anywhere outside the capital — virtually every weekend.

In this respect, as in others, Sheinbaum is following in the footsteps of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who traveled frequently and widely within Mexico during his presidency and once boasted of having visited each and every one of the country’s almost 2,500 municipalities. Also like AMLO, the presidenta is happy to get up close and personal with her supporters — she’ll kiss babies, high-five kids, hug grandmothers.

In September alone, Sheinbaum visited every state in the country on what she dubbed an “accountability tour,” delivering speeches to update residents on government projects and initiatives in their local areas.

“I made a decision, I decided to go to all the states of the republic to report because to govern is to be accountable,” she said during her “accountability” address in Aguascalientes on Sept. 5.

“You can’t govern far from the people, you have to govern close to the people and we have an idea about how to govern, and we say that we govern from the territory,” Sheinbaum said.

Sheinbaum standing out of a car
While the president lives in Mexico City, she travels to different areas of the country virtually every weekend. (Senadores Morena/Facebook)

The president’s frequent trips to la provincia help her to consolidate her nationwide support, and undoubtedly provide good optics (just take a look at Sheinbaum’s social media). Saying your government is putting the poor first is one thing, visiting Mexico’s most disadvantaged communities and explaining to people firsthand what concrete actions are being taken to make their lives better is another.

It is worth noting that Sheinbaum finds herself in politically favorable territory in the majority of states across Mexico. The Morena party holds office in 23 of the 32 federal entities, while its ally, the Ecological Green Party of Mexico, governs one state (San Luis Potosí). The fact that more than 70% of Mexico’s states are governed by a party that only came into existence 11 years ago is nothing short of extraordinary. Can you imagine the same thing happening in a country like the United States or Canada?

The ubiquity of Morena’s political power across Mexico adds to the strength of Sheinbaum and her government, in part by ensuring that constitutional reforms approved by the federal Congress are ratified. Such reforms must be ratified by at least 17 of the state legislatures to take effect.

While she is in friendly territory in Morena entities, Sheinbaum has spoken about being well received in states governed by the National Action Party and the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). That’s not surprising given that at least seven in ten Mexicans across the country approve of her performance as president, according to many polls.

What they’re saying 

President Sheinbaum: 

We are always going to be close to the people, we will never abandon you.” 

70 

This is the number above which Sheinbaum’s approval rating remained throughout almost all of her first year in office. 

There is no doubt that Sheinbaum is a wildly popular president.

Since she took office a year and a day ago, her approval rating has been above 70% every month except November, when it was 69%, according to the results of monthly polls conducted by the El Financiero newspaper. For four consecutive months between January and April, Sheinbaum’s approval rating exceeded 80% in El Financiero polls. Other surveys have yielded similar results.

So why is Sheinbaum so popular?

Sheinbaum’s approval rating tops 70% at 1-year mark

The one thing that stands out is her government’s provision of financial support for Mexican people — especially disadvantaged citizens — through its various welfare programs.

One recent poll identified “help for the people” as the president’s top achievement, while another found that 77% of respondents viewed the government’s social support programs in a positive light.

Although homicides have decreased during Sheinbaum’s term, a large majority of Mexicans do not approve of the federal government’s response to insecurity, poll results indicate.

However, it appears that a significant number of people are still prepared to support the president and her government despite its perceived shortcomings in combating insecurity and organized crime.

Beyond cash transfers — derided as vote-buying by some government critics  — there are many other factors that can help explain Sheinbaum’s high level of popularity. They include the following:

  • Sheinbaum is the successor and political protégé of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, a controversial but widely loved politician who built up a loyal following over a period of decades.
  • She is Mexico’s first female president, a situation that automatically endears her to many women, and at least some men.
  • Her support for double-digit increases to Mexico’s minimum wage.
  • Her commitment to improving the lives of Mexico’s women.
  • Her government’s management of the economy, which is growing (albeit at a modest rate) despite forecasts that it would contract in 2025.
  • The current weakness of opposition parties.
  • The perception that she is an honest and intelligent woman who is committed to serving the people of Mexico.
  • A “rally ’round the flag’ effect amid frequent tariff threats from United States President Donald Trump and speculation that the U.S. could take military action against Mexican cartels on Mexican soil.
  • Her tireless defense of Mexico’s sovereignty.
  • Her appearance at press conferences every weekday morning, which allows her to set the national agenda and gives her a regular platform to communicate directly with the people of Mexico.
  • Her extensive travel around Mexico, and willingness to get up and close with “the people.”

What they’re saying 

Francisco Abundas, a renowned Mexican pollster: 

The [majority] approval of President Claudia Sheinbaum in August 2025 mainly depends on three factors: continuity and strengthening of the social programs, which maintain a connection with the majority [of Mexican people]; a favorable comparison with past governments, which reinforces the perception of relative efficiency; a personal image of close, honest and competent leadership, which legitimizes her decisions.”  

Senator Alejando Moreno, national leader of the Institutional Revolutionary Party:

[The federal government] has gone so far as to manipulate the population with social programs that don’t guarantee rights or solve structural problems, but do ensure political loyalty.” 

3,145

This is the length in kilometers of the Mexico-United States border. 

Poor Mexico, so far from God, so close to the United States.”

The famous phrase is attributed to former Mexican president Porfirio Díaz, who ruled with an iron fist for more than three decades in the late 19th and early 20th centuries.

Mexico’s proximity to the world’s most powerful country and largest economy has its advantages, but — as the aforesaid phrase indicates — it comes with a healthy dose of challenges. That is certainly the case for the current occupant of Mexico’s National Palace.

For the past eight months, Sheinbaum has had to deal with an unpredictable, protectionist, hyperbolic and sometimes belligerent U.S. president whose administration has accused the Mexican government of being in cahoots with drug cartels.

Donald Trump has conveyed a simple message to Sheinbaum: Combat the cartels and stop narcotics and migrants from crossing Mexico’s northern border into the United States.

While the message is simple, achieving those objectives is exceedingly difficult — if not impossible.

Trump: ‘Mexico does what we tell them to do’

Still, Trump expects results, and has shown he is willing to use the tools at his disposal — especially tariffs — to get (or at least attempt to get) what he wants. The threat of U.S. military action against cartels in Mexico (foreign terrorist organizations, according to the U.S.) looms as a possibility, as unrealistic as that eventuality appears to some, including the presidenta herself.

Sheinbaum has made some progress toward achieving the objectives Trump has set for her. Data indicates that the quantity of drugs and migrants entering the U.S. via its 3,145-kilometer-long border with Mexico has declined significantly. Under pressure from the U.S., the Sheinbaum administration has deployed additional troops to the northern border region, sent dozens of cartel figures to face justice in the U.S., seized large quantities of narcotics and destroyed more than 1,400 drug labs.

Nevertheless, satisfying Trump on the drug issue is no easy feat, perhaps impossible, given that Americans continue to die from drug overdoses and blaming Mexico for the problem (and China, Venezuela and other countries) is seen as a surefire way to make political capital.

Sheinbaum has earned praise for the way in which she has handled Trump, won some concessions from him and the pair say they have a good relationship. But the fact remains that there are U.S. tariffs on a range of Mexican goods, including steel, aluminum and vehicles, that didn’t exist before the current U.S. president returned to the White House.

Still, given that Trump has also imposed new tariffs on goods from U.S. allies around the world, it is unfair to apportion blame to Sheinbaum for the protectionist status quo in intra-North American trade.

In addition to slapping tariffs on Mexico, the United States’ largest trade partner, Trump has repeatedly made the unedifying claim that Sheinbaum is “afraid” of the cartels, even as his secretary of state and ambassador in Mexico have commended her government for its security work.

There is criticism at home as well: A recent poll found that a majority of Mexicans believe that the Sheinbaum administration is not doing a good job managing the relationship with the U.S. president.

Attending to the Mexico-United States relationship will be an ongoing and ever-evolving task for Sheinbaum during the next five years of her presidency. Next year will be especially pivotal given that the USMCA is up for review.

While trade and security have been the key focus of the bilateral relationship over the past 12 months, it is important not to forget that there are a range of other binational challenges, including ones related to Mexico’s water debt, the ongoing screwworm saga and the Tijuana-San Diego sewage crisis.

What they’re saying 

President Sheinbaum:

We collaborate, we coordinate, we work together [with the United States], but we will never be subordinated. Mexico is a free, sovereign, independent country and we don’t accept interventionism in our country.” 

Marco Rubio, United States Secretary of State:

We’ve had a great relationship with the government of Mexico during the eight months of the Trump presidency. It is the closest security cooperation we have ever had, maybe with any country, but certainly in the history of U.S.-Mexico relations.” 

Carlos Pérez Ricart, an academic who focuses on arms trafficking, drug policy and organized crime:

This bilateral relationship can’t be described as cooperation, but rather as extortion.”

The Mexican government is prepared to concede almost anything in order to safeguard the renegotiation of the USMCA and preserve the promise of low tariffs.”

32,400+

This is the number of people arrested for allegedly committing “high-impact” crimes during Sheinbaum’s first year in office. 

On Sept. 9, Federal Security Minister Omar García Harfuch reported that more than 32,400 people had been arrested since Oct. 1, 2024.

The figure is striking for at least two reasons.

It indicates that an average of around 95 people were arrested for crimes such as homicide, kidnapping, rape and extortion each and every day over the past year. Considering that impunity is still considered to be a major problem in Mexico, the average daily number of arrests and the accumulated figure are extraordinarily high, demonstrating that the federal government’s security strategy — which includes enhanced intelligence and investigation practices — is working.

Speaking of her administration's security strategy, Sheinbaum emphasized "prevention, intelligence and presence [of security forces]."
Speaking of her administration’s security strategy in October 2024, Sheinbaum emphasized “prevention, intelligence and presence [of security forces].” (gob.mx)
Secondly, the 32,400 figure underscores the vast scale of the security challenge the Sheinbaum administration faces. How many people would have to be put behind bars to truly pacify the country?

The high number of arrests over the past year also creates a significant additional challenge for Mexico’s recently renewed judiciary, which will have to assess the culpability of a huge number of suspects. The pace of justice delivery in Mexico is already glacial, in many cases. The additional burden could make things even worse.

With so many people being arrested, another issue to consider is overcrowding in Mexico’s notoriously overcrowded jails. Sheinbaum has acknowledged that her government is considering building new penitentiaries.

What they’re saying 

Security Minister Omar García Harfuch: 

The joint work of the Ministry of National Defense, the Ministry of the Navy, the Ministry of Security and Citizen Protection, the Federal Attorney General’s Office, the Ministry of the Interior, the National Guard and the National Intelligence Center has made it possible to dismantle criminal networks, detain priority targets, execute judicial orders, and also impact the financial structures of criminal groups through the [drug] seizures carried out.”

U.S. President Donald Trump: 

Mexico still has not stopped the Cartels who are trying to turn all of North America into a Narco-Trafficking Playground.” 

130,000+

This is the number of people officially classified as missing in Mexico. 

Sheinbaum, like leaders around the world, inherited a range of problems when she took office.

Mexico’s long-running missing persons crisis is one of the biggest. The president is determined to make progress on addressing the problem, but disappearances have remained a major problem during her administration.

In March, as the discovery of a so-called extermination camp in the state of Jalisco continued to provoke horror in Mexico, Sheinbaum declared that “attending to the problem of missing persons” was a “national priority” for her government.

The president subsequently announced six actions against abductions, including the strengthening of the National Search Commission and legislative reform.

Mexican men and women at a protest in Mexico City, holding up laminated missing persons posters of their loved ones. All the posters say at the top "Desaparecido" (Disappeared/Missing)
Search collectives from Jalisco protesting in February in Mexico City, saying the government is ignoring their cases despite Jalisco being the number one state in Mexico for forced disappearances. (Galo Cañas Rodríguez/Cuartoscuro)

But some of the most important stakeholders in the plan — the families of the missing — are not convinced it is the right way forward (see below).

Within the vast missing persons crisis, Sheinbaum inherited the unresolved, 11-year-old Ayotzinapa case — the disappearance of 43 teachers’ college students in Guerrero in September 2024.

Effectively dealing with Mexico’s missing persons crisis — including solving unresolved cases, holding abductors to account and reducing the incidence of new cases — will be a major challenge for the president. If she can effectively address the problem, and convince the people of Mexico that she has done so, millions of Mexicans will thank her, not least the nation’s madres buscadoras (searching mothers) and other relatives of the missing.

The failure to do so would taint the Sheinbaum administration, especially considering that the president has made addressing the missing persons problem a “national priority.”

What they’re saying 

An open letter to Sheinbaum endorsed by search collectives, activists and relatives of victims of abduction and enforced disappearance: 

The families of disappeared persons saw and listened to your response in the face of a disappearances crisis that gets worse every day. The proposal you make deeply concerns us as it reflects a lack of awareness of the institutional search and investigation mechanisms and procedures that already exist in the country.” 

34.3 billion 

This is the amount in US dollars that Mexico received in foreign direct investment (FDI) in the first six months of 2025. 

Despite concerns about the judicial reform — and President Trump’s subversion of the USMCA with the implementation of tariffs on a range of Mexican goods — FDI in Mexico hit a record high in the January-June period of this year.

This is undoubtedly a win for Sheinbaum and her administration, which is aiming to attract foreign investment, boost domestic manufacturing capacity and reduce reliance on imports.

All three of those objectives are part of the government’s ambitious Plan México economic plan, which was unveiled in January.

In a social media post after the publication of the FDI data for the first six months of the year, Sheinbaum asserted that the “Fourth Transformation [economic] model doesn’t just reduce poverty, it generates investment as well.”

An especially positive aspect of the aforementioned data is that the “new investment” component more than tripled between January and June compared to the first six months of 2024.

The federal government will be hoping that trend continues, and that new projects are launched across the country, not just in areas that have traditionally attracted high levels of FDI such as northern Mexico and the Bajío region.

A slogan of the Sheinbaum administration is “shared prosperity” — it wants Mexico’s wealth (including that derived from foreign investment) to be shared among all Mexicans, no matter their background or where in the country they live.

Continuing to receive record levels of FDI, and attracting at least some of that investment to historically disadvantaged parts of Mexico, could go a long way to helping the government achieve its “shared prosperity” goal. Conversely, any significant slump in FDI would undermine that initiative, and affect Mexico’s overall economic wellbeing as well.

With Plan México and other initiatives, including security and infrastructure-focused ones, Sheinbaum and her government will be determined to do everything they can within their control to make sure that doesn’t happen in the coming years.

What they’re saying 

Mexico’s federal Economy Ministry: 

Mexico attracted new investments amounting to US $ 3.149 billion [in the first six months of 2025], which is 246% more than in 2024. … This is the highest growth in the last 12 years. It reaffirms the interest that foreign investors maintain in our country, despite the global economic and political scenario.”

By Mexico News Daily chief staff writer Peter Davies (peter.davies@mexiconewsdaily.com)


Looking for Part 1?

President Sheinbaum’s first year in office in 12 numbers: Part 1

New rules for hazardous material transport announced in wake of deadly CDMX tanker explosion

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Firefighters hose down a gas tanker on its side in a highway
Earlier this month, the explosion of a LP gas tanker killed over 30 people and injured dozens in the Iztapalapa borough of Mexico City, prompting investigations and calls for accountability. (Agencia Cuartoscuro)

Three weeks after a tanker truck carrying LP gas exploded in Mexico City, the federal government on Thursday announced two new regulations for the transportation and distribution of the fuel.

Energy Minister Luz Elena González outlined the new regulations at President Claudia Sheinbaum’s morning press conference.

Energy Minister Luz Elena González detailed the new federal rules on Thursday. (Galo Cañas/Cuartoscuro)

The new rules “strengthen the regulation of the transportation and distribution of liquified petroleum gas,” she said.

González said that one of the new regulations applies to the transport of LP gas from refineries or “points of importation” to “plants or storage terminals.”

The other regulation applies to “last mile” distribution to businesses and homes, she said.

Under the new regulations, companies that transport and distribute LP gas will be required to demonstrate to the government’s Security, Energy and Environmental Agency (ASEA) on an annual basis that their vehicles are adequately maintained.

González said that a current regulation requires companies to have maintenance programs for their vehicles, but doesn’t require them to “demonstrate their compliance.”

She said that the new regulations will also “demand the accreditation of safety tests.”

González said that a current regulation obliges companies to carry out visual inspections of vehicles and “leak tests,” but there is no obligation to “periodically present hydrostatic pressure tests except in cases of damage, accidents or repairs of the containers.”

The carrying out of hydrostatic tests, which will become compulsory, “guarantee” the safe operation of vehicle containers filled with LP gas, she said.

“In the two new regulations, not just external visual inspections will be required but also internal visual inspections of vehicle containers, and, in addition, the permit holders will be obliged to periodically present [the results of] hydrostatic pressure tests of all vehicles,” González said.

The energy minister said that the new regulations will also strengthen requirements for drivers to have “adequate training, not just in driving but also in industrial safety.”

Horrific gas tanker explosion in Mexico City claims 8 lives, injures 90

“The current regulation establishes the obligation to have training programs for drivers, but these are generic and left to the discretion of each company. With these two new regulations, it is mandatory that this training be technical and practical, and that it be certified through a specific competency standard, both for the transport and distribution of LP gas,” she said.

González said that the new regulations will also require vehicles transporting LP gas to be equipped with speed limiters and GPS.

The tanker truck that exploded in the Mexico City borough of Iztapalapa on Sept. 10 was speeding when it overturned and hit a wall, according to authorities. The explosion eventually claimed more than 30 lives.

González noted that the two new regulations will be published in the federal government’s official gazette on Friday. She said that all LP gas distribution vehicles must show that they are complying with the new regulation that applies to them within four months.

“The rest of the units will be able to demonstrate their compliance during the next six months,” González said.

“In addition to the publication of the two regulations, a joint inspection program is being implemented by the Ministry of Infrastructure, Communications and Transport, the National Energy Commission, and ASEA,” she said.

Mexico City mayor clara brugada
Mexico City Mayor Clara Brugada earlier this week announced detailed new standards for hazardous material transport in the nation’s capital. (Gobierno de CDMX)

“These agencies will review, at the regulated entities’ facilities, the physical and mechanical conditions of vehicles, the safety elements of the containers, the validity of permits, the consistency of records in the vehicle registry, and evidence of compliance with obligations under the applicable regulations,” she said.

Separately, Mexico City Mayor Clara Brugada announced earlier this week 13 measures that are aimed at making the transportation of hazardous materials in the capital safer.

One of the rules that vehicles transporting dangerous substances will have to follow is not exceeding 30 kilometers per hour, no matter the speed limit of the road they are on.

Mexico News Daily  

I cried when Sheinbaum was elected. Here’s what I think of her now

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President Claudia Sheinbaum
It has been one year to the day since Claudia Sheinbaum took office as Mexico's first female president. How has she changed Mexico in the eyes of those who didn't vote for her? (Secretaría de Bienestar)

As part of Mexico News Daily’s ongoing coverage of Claudia Sheinbaum’s first year in charge, we are highlighting a variety of personal perspectives and opinions from Mexico and beyond.

I did not vote for Sheinbaum. I cried on election night — not out of surprise, since her victory was expected — but as I watched Mexico’s map turn maroon and saw both the Senate and Chamber of Deputies change color in real time on television. A sinking feeling took hold: This was slipping out of control. I was furious with the opposition parties, with the nearly 60% of voters who handed her the win, and yes, I wondered whether my doubts about her as AMLO’s heir made me biased. Such is democracy.

I cried because I had sworn that Sheinbaum wouldn’t be able to preserve her independence from the now-former president. I cried because, in Mexico, elections rarely unfold without hints of corruption. Although, honestly, is anyone who wins entirely squeaky-clean? Probably not.

President Claudia Sheinbaum
Beyond the frenzy of the first 100 days, it’s now possible to take a more measured look at Sheinbaum’s presidency. (Secretaría de Bienestar)

Today marks her first year in office. Beyond the initial frenzy of the first 100 days, we can now begin to assess her governorship and glimpse what the next five years might hold. Below, in seven points, I review the year’s highlights and setbacks. At the end of each section, I offer a personal reflection, hoping to spark debate.

1. Greater approval, less polarization

Sheinbaum is Mexico’s first female president, and her victory set a record thanks to a raw vote total unmatched in the country’s democratic history. Polling has been revealing: a Banamex report placed her approval rating above 70% — the highest for a comparable period among the last five presidents—and an Enkoll survey published in El País put it at roughly 79%.

Where is she strongest? Among women and notably young voters (18–29). States like Oaxaca, Tlaxcala, and Tamaulipas report approval levels near 80%. Meanwhile, Mexico City and Guanajuato remain in the low to mid-50s.

Whether it’s her more measured rhetoric, her governing style or the absence of near-constant tirades against “fifís” and rival ex-presidents, Sheinbaum seems to be knitting consensus rather than ripping it apart. Charming or tactical — take your pick.

In an informal poll of acquaintances, I’ve noticed less anger directed at her. More people seem willing to acknowledge her successes and shortcomings with an open mind. The reduction in polarization is real and encouraging and this allows policies to be judged with fewer distortions.

2. The Trump affair

Diplomacy matters. Sheinbaum and her cabinet members had shown up for meetings with their homework done and delivered results: large drug seizures, the extradition of more than 55 alleged traffickers (including high-profile figures linked to the CJNG and the Sinaloa Cartel) and a reported slowdown in migrant flows to the U.S. These moves have earned her unexpected praise. Trump himself called her “excellent and respectful.”

I cried when Sheinbaum was elected…do I feel any better now?

One issue worth noting: our tariffs compared to other countries. Mexico’s effective average tariff rate stands at 8.28%, one of the lowest worldwide. For now, 84% of Mexico–U.S. trade remains duty-free under USMCA exemptions.

However, we are currently under a pause — set to lift on October 29 — on a 30% tariff. Though most goods are protected by the USMCA, if Mexican authorities fail to meet U.S. demands, commodities like copper, heavy trucks, pharmaceuticals, kitchen cabinets and upholstered furniture could face tariffs of varying severity as soon as Oct. 14. If so, they would join steel and aluminum, which are already subject to tariffs.

Sheinbaum has successfully avoided the kind of American intervention that once seemed plausible. At the same time, there hasn’t been a mass exodus of multinationals, no immediate supermarket price shocks — and, on this narrow bilateral scorecard, she’s managing effectively.

But the real test lies ahead: the renegotiation of the USMCA. It’s already unofficially underway. Government officials have been negotiating in Washington for months. Threats to various treaty provisions are inevitable, but it will be her strategy — or rather her cool-headed negotiation skills — that determine whether Mexico emerges relatively unscathed.

3. Violence and security

Hard numbers tell part of the story: daily homicides fell from around 86.9 in September 2024 to roughly 64.9 in July 2025. That’s a 25.3% drop. Yet public fear of insecurity has grown. According to the National Urban Public Security Survey, those who feel unsafe rose from 59.4% to 63.2% over the same period. How do we reconcile fewer murders with heightened anxiety? Partly because the government shifted away from AMLO’s “abrazos, no balazos” approach. During her first 100 days, confrontations between criminal groups and authorities surged by nearly 97%, and deaths from these clashes increased by over 65%.

Some credit U.S. diplomatic pressure for the decrease in homicides. Regardless of the cause, President Sheinbaum and Security Secretary Omar García Harfuch have made clear their commitment to dismantling organized crime. Whether these declines will persist without more violence remains uncertain.

Sheinbaum mañanera
In July, there was an average of 64.9 homicides per day, a reduction of 25.3% compared to September 2024. (Mario Jasso/Cuartoscuro)

However, the Public Security Survey takes into account other crimes like kidnapping, robbery or extortion. For women, especially, there’s an added layer of anxiety about sexual violence. In everyday conversations, phrases like “let me know when you get home,” “avoid traveling at night,” “be careful at the ATM” and “don’t carry cash” feel like a subtle reminder that crime goes beyond cartel activities. While numbers offer hope, social perception and persistent fears show security remains fragile.

4. Judicial reform

I’ll admit: I’m no legal expert. But trusted voices agree on two points. First, comprehensive judicial reform was long overdue. Second, its rushed implementation has brought problems. The reform was necessary because many judges have historically engaged in corruption, received excessive payrolls and made political compromises. Yet, the changes have increased executive and legislative influence over judicial appointments, raising concerns about politicizing a judiciary traditionally staffed by career magistrates.

Now, as new magistrates settle in, issues emerge. Familiarity with procedures remains uneven, and perceptions of overreach persist. A telling example: reports once revealed that Supreme Court President Hugo Aguilar employed 84 advisers, costing roughly 6 million pesos monthly, until public uproar forced a 35% staff reduction. By contrast, former Chief Justice Norma Piña had just six advisers.

Will this reform reduce impunity or weaken judicial independence, undermining the rule of law? Only time and the rest of her term will tell. The reform addressed real problems, but its rushed rollout risks weakening judicial safeguards.

5. Internal rifts in Morena

Morena is far from monolithic. Ongoing investigations into alleged corruption networks have exposed fractures within its ranks. These probes reportedly implicate relatives of the former president and regional party figures, revealing the party’s internal vulnerabilities.

Within the presidency, one of Sheinbaum’s boldest moves against her internal opponents has been her proposal to eliminate proportional representation seats in both Legislative Chambers. In simple terms, she aims to diminish the influence of larger parties in the Deputy’s Chamber and the Senate. Another initiative targets nepotism in public appointments. It’s scheduled to take effect in 2030 and seeks to restrict direct family succession. Despite her good intentions, these measures do little to dismantle the extensive networks of family ties that have long permeated Mexican politics across parties and sectors.

President Sheinbaum in La Paz, Baja California Sur
During her first year in office, President Sheinbaum has visited every one of the nation’s states, while showing clear breaks from her predecessor’s policies. (Juan Carlos Buenrostro/Presidencia)

The party’s internal tensions confirm what many expected: a clear break from AMLO’s departure. But how Claudia has managed that rupture is surprising. Her apparent willingness to tolerate implicated figures or let them take political hits suggests a strategy — one that consolidates her power by allowing opponents to self-destruct, leaving lasting grievances within Morena.

6. Women in power

Compared with other countries, Mexico’s inclusion of women at the top has come late and rapidly. My sister, who has a PhD in gender politics, explained that “marianismo” — a paternalistic form of rhetoric from female leaders that seeks to empower women but often ends up being misogynistic — is a risk. Sheinbaum, with her professional demeanor and academic background, has consciously avoided that trap, unlike some other Latin American female presidents, like Michelle Bachelet in Chile or Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in Argentina.

Given Mexico’s high rates of femicide and violence against women, her calm, deliberate demeanor — often marked by symbolic acts like wearing purple or quietly observing the national celebration from her balcony — was a powerful image and felt like a moral victory. If a woman can hold the presidency, perhaps more will feel empowered to pursue public roles.

It’s still too early to tell whether her presidency will bring about transformative change, whether her mere presence can shift Mexico’s machismo culture. Watching her exercise power is impressive, but structural change for gender equality will require persistent policy and cultural shifts beyond representation.

7. Economy

You might have seen reports claiming Mexico is doing okay, and there’s truth in that. Sheinbaum has maintained economic stability. Inflation stands at 3.5%, within the Bank of Mexico’s projections, and GDP is forecast to grow by 1% this year, per the International Monetary Fund.

The so-called Plan Mexico — designed to attract foreign investment — is underway. While the country retains some advantages over competitors, challenges remain. The specter of Trump’s “Make America Great Again” agenda continues to undermine investor confidence.

Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico's president
Minimum wage has increased considerably under President Claudia Sheinbaum’s term, but significant economic hurdles remain to be cleared. (Gobierno de Mexico)

Most notably, inherited from AMLO, poverty has decreased considerably, and the minimum wage has risen by 135% in real terms.

There’s always a “but.” Mexico’s public debt now accounts for 60.7% of GDP. Pemex, the state oil company, carries one of the largest fiscal burdens, with debts approaching US $100 billion. Exploration activities have fallen by 43%, leaving Pemex unable to reliably pay its suppliers, perpetuating a vicious cycle of decline.

The International Monetary Fund has forecast an economic contraction this year, which Sheinbaum has publicly challenged. While Mexico remains stable, international evaluators are wary. They are closely watching key vulnerabilities — public debt, energy sector health and judicial independence—that could threaten the country’s economic trajectory.

In everyday life — like shopping — the cost of living feels sharply higher. My weekly grocery bill has doubled from about 1,500 to 3,000 pesos. That personal pinch (which realistically represents 1% of the Mexican population) reflects broader economic turbulence felt across many households.

Bottom line (with feelings)

Governance in Mexico often feels masochistic. Yet Claudia Sheinbaum chose to lead a fragmented nation — diverse regions, entrenched criminal networks, a hungry neighbor to the north, internal party rivalries on top of external ones, demanding feminists and skeptical misogynists. In her first year, she has delivered tangible results—more than I might have expected. Though she insists she’s continuing AMLO’s project, her actions reveal crucial differences in style and priorities.

This was only her first year, and the toughest challenges are coming her way. I’m no longer crying with the results, but I’ll continue to look at her doing very closely, very skeptically, and I’ll still bristle at many of her party’s factions. But, as my mother says, I genuinely hope — more than anything — that the next five years bring real, positive change. Because if she succeeds, Mexico will succeed too.

María Meléndez is a Mexico City food blogger and influencer.