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Citi survey: Banks predict 1.3% GDP growth, peso weakening to 19:1 in 2026

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Downtown Mexico City
The most optimistic forecast came from Banorte, which is predicting a 1.8% GDP expansion this year. (Unsplash)

Mexico’s economy will grow 1.3% in 2026.

The Mexican peso will trade at 19 to the US dollar at the end of the year.

The headline inflation rate will be 4% at the close of 2026.

The Bank of Mexico’s benchmark interest rate will be 6.5% at year’s end.

These are some of the consensus forecasts derived from the latest Citi México Expectations Survey, for which 35 banks, brokerages and research organizations were asked to provide economic predictions for Mexico.

The survey results, which include forecasts from major banks such as BBVA, Banorte, Barclays and Bank of America, were published on Tuesday.

Growth forecasts range from 0.6% to 1.8% 

The median 1.3% growth forecast for the Mexican economy in 2026 represents an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the consensus prediction derived from Citi’s previous expectations survey in mid-December.

The most optimistic forecast came from Banorte, which is predicting a 1.8% GDP expansion this year.

The gloomiest outlook came from Scotiabank México, which is forecasting that the Mexican economy will grow just 0.6% in 2026.

The median forecast is well below the 1.8%-2.8% growth prediction made by the federal Finance Ministry in its 2026 budget proposal. The government hopes that strong foreign investment inflows, World Cup-related tourism and a positive outcome from the USMCA review will be among the factors that spur growth in Mexico this year.

Citi also asked financial institutions to predict Mexico’s GDP growth rates in 2025 — for which final data has not yet been published — and 2027.

The median forecast was that the Mexican economy grew 0.4% last year, on par with the growth rate in the first nine months of the year.

The consensus outlook among the 35 survey respondents is that the Mexican economy will grow 1.8% in 2027.

Peso predicted to weaken this year  

The Mexican peso was trading at 17.96 to the US dollar early on Wednesday afternoon, a slight appreciation compared to its position at the close of trading on the final day of 2025.

The consensus forecast derived from Citi’s latest survey is that the peso will trade at 19 to the greenback at the end of 2026. Such an eventuality would represent a depreciation of just over 5% for the peso.

The end-of-year USD:MXN exchange rate forecasts ranged from 17.10 (from the company XP Investments) to 20.30 (from Banca Mifel).

2025 was the modern Mexican peso’s best year ever

The consensus forecast is that the peso will depreciate further in 2027 to end that year at 19.50 to the US dollar.

Defying expectations, the peso appreciated significantly in 2025, ending the year at 18 to the greenback after finishing 2024 at close to 21.

Inflation forecast to increase 

The median forecast of the institutions surveyed by Citi is that Mexico’s annual headline inflation rate will be 4% at the end of 2026. Such a reading would represent a slight increase from the 3.72% rate recorded in the first half of December.

For its part, the Bank of Mexico is predicting that inflation will converge to its 3% target in the third quarter of this year and remain at that level in the fourth quarter of 2026 and throughout 2027.

Among the respondents to Citi’s survey, the end-of-year inflation forecasts ranged from 3.29% (from Signum Research) to 4.40% (from Banorte).

The consensus forecast was that Mexico’s headline inflation rate will be 3.70% at the end of 2027.

Additional interest rate cuts expected 

All but one of the respondents to Citi’s survey predicted that the Bank of Mexico’s key interest rate will be lower at the end of 2026 than its current 7%.

The median forecast is that the rate will be 6.50% at the end of 2026, after two 25-basis point cuts over the course of the year.

Santander México was the only respondent that said that the central bank’s benchmark rate will remain at 7% at the end of 2026.

The lowest end-of-year interest rate prediction came from the Bank of America, which anticipates cuts totaling 100 basis points to lower the rate to 6% at the close of 2026.

The Bank of Mexico’s first monetary policy decision of the year will be made on Feb. 5. The bank lowered its benchmark interest rate after all eight of its monetary policy meetings in 2025, shaving a total of 300 basis points off borrowing costs over the course of the year.

The median forecast among the 35 respondents to the latest Citi survey is that the Bank of Mexico’s key interest rate will be 6.50% at the end of 2027. Seven of the respondents anticipate a 6.00% interest rate at the end of next year, while one — the Mexican bank Bankaool — is forecasting a 5.50% rate at the close of 2027.

Mexico News Daily 

Querétaro earns a spot on the New York Times’ list of ‘places to go in 2026’

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Cityscape Querétaro
The Times recognized the beautiful Mexican city of Querétaro as a world-class destination, noting its food, wine offerings and rich history. (@QroTravel/X)

Querétaro, a city and state in central Mexico renowned for its rich history, has landed a place on the New York Times’ list of the 52 best places to go in 2026. 

Inclusion on this list usually boosts international tourism, as many travelers use it as an annual reference for “where to travel this year.” For Querétaro, the recognition reinforces its image not only as a picturesque city, but also as a world-class destination for food, culture and wine. 

queetaro at night
The aqueduct of Querétaro is an eighteenth-century construction that’s now part of the capital city’s architecturally stunning Historic Center. (@RRNoticiasqro/X)

“The sleepy, old-fashioned city of Querétaro has long been one of Mexico’s most picturesque urban centers,” the Times said. “But in recent years the city and its surrounding countryside have emerged as a surprising new destination for food and drink.”

Indeed, Querétaro has grown a reputation as a culinary destination thanks to its wine industry

The Times highlighted Hotel Hércules, a restored textile factory with a brewery “that produces some of Mexico’s best craft beers.” It also draws attention to restaurants like the El Reinita and the El Apapacho cafetería, which stand out for their creative culinary offerings.

The publication also invites readers to explore the region’s centuries-old wine route, featuring labels such as Tierra de Peña; or to enjoy a grill-and-wine experience at places like Bárbaro Asador, set among pleasant vineyards.

The city of Querétaro, officially known as Santiago de Querétaro, was founded as a Spanish-colonial city in 1531, just 10 years after Hernán Cortés took Tenochtitlán. Before that, the region was inhabited from at least 500 BC by Otomi groups and later by Purépecha and various nomadic peoples known collectively as Chichimecas.

Looking for fresh beer in Querétaro? Head to Hércules

Thanks to its strategic location, the Spanish advanced northwards from Querétaro in search of gold and silver, following routes that were already known by the original settlers of Querétaro. By the 17th and 18th centuries, Querétaro had consolidated its position as a wealthy city within the viceroyalty. 

Known as the “Pearl of the Bajío,” this historic city features architectural jewels like the Convent of Santa Cruz, and several Baroque churches that today form part of the UNESCO World Heritage Site of Historic Monuments were built during this period. 

The city was also declared the capital of Mexico twice, and secured its place in history as the site of the Declaration of Independence in 1810.

With reports from The New York Times

Why is Mexico suddenly Cuba’s biggest oil supplier?

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Oil tanker
Venezuelan oil shipments to Cuba have plummeted by 63% since 2023, resulting in a situation where Mexico is now the chief supplier of crude to Cuba. (Unsplash)

Mexico moved ahead of Venezuela in 2025 as Cuba’s main oil supplier, according to a Tuesday article from the Financial Times newspaper, citing new industry data. But President Claudia Sheinbaum was quick to insist that Mexico is not shipping significantly more oil to Cuba than in previous years.

Mexico was estimated to have sent a daily average of 12,284 barrels of oil to Cuba in 2025, contributing 44% of the Caribbean island’s crude imports, while Venezuela exported an estimated 9,528 barrels per day (bpd) of oil to Cuba, accounting for 34% of its imported crude.

That 10 percentage-point difference supports the Financial Times conclusion that Mexico is now the No. 1 exporter of oil to Cuba, with Russia a distant third.

But as Sheinbaum hinted, the 56% rise in Mexican shipments to Cuba in 2025 compared to 2024 would not have been nearly enough to overtake the South American nation if Venezuela’s exports to Cuba had not fallen by 63% since 2023.

During the last two years of the López Obrador administration, Mexico’s state-owned oil firm Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) subsidized the shipment of at least 10 million barrels of oil to Cuba, according to a December report from the non-profit Mexicans Against Corruption and Impunity.

Between July 2023 and September 2024, Pemex shipped crude oil and refined products to Cuba worth approximately 15.6 billion pesos (US $869 million) through its Gasolinas Bienestar SA de CV subsidiary, the company stated in reports submitted to investors on the Mexican Stock Exchange. 

In her daily press conference on Wednesday, President Sheinbaum said, “We are not sending more oil than we have historically,” and added, “Of course, with the current situation in Venezuela, Mexico has obviously become an important supplier. Before, it was Venezuela.” 

When asked if Mexico would supply a larger quantity of crude oil to Cuba now, given the U.S. embargo on Venezuela, Sheinbaum would only say that part of what is sent “is by contract, and also the aid that has been provided historically.”

The Trump administration, however, has made it clear that any oil shipments to Cuba defy his demand that Mexico and other Latin American nations play a “constructive regional role aligned with U.S. foreign policy goals.” They become, then, another pretext for the U.S. president’s escalating threats against Mexico.

With reports from Aristegui Noticias and El Economista

The CFE is bringing back the phone booth in rural Mexico

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telephone booth in operation
The CFE, through its CFE Telecomunicaciones subsidiary, has already installed 848 new phone booths — mostly in the states of Chiapas, Veracruz (as seen here) and Oaxaca — replacing the old, damaged, dysfunctional or disappeared previous payphones. (coatzacoalcos.gob.mx)

In a move that blends nostalgia with social policy, CFE Telecomunicaciones is reinstalling public telephone booths across Mexico — a technology many thought extinct in the age of cell phones and WhatsApp.

The state-run company — a somewhat new subsidiary of the nation’s Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) that began offering mobile and internet services in 2022 — has launched a program it says will “guarantee connectivity for the population that, due to the generational or digital divide, may have their communication with loved ones affected.”

One year into the program, which operates through agreements with municipal governments, CFE Telecomunicaciones has installed 848 phone booths.

Most of them are in the states of Veracruz, Oaxaca and Chiapas in communities with little or no connectivity, which are usually localities with fewer than 2,500 inhabitants.

Calls are free, and in rural communities they can even reach the United States and Canada without charge, according to the newspaper Récord.

The phones operate on simple analog charm: Simply lift the handset, dial, talk and hang up.

The initiative revives a service once vital to daily life. In the 1990s and into the early 2000s, millions of Mexicans relied on phone cards — starting at 30 pesos — for national and international calls.

But mobile phones and instant messaging apps rapidly rendered payphones obsolete.

By 2010, Mexico had approximately 80 mobile phone subscriptions per 100 people, a figure that rose to 90 out of 100 by 2016, according to World Bank/ITU and regulatory-based sources.

According to the Federal Telecommunications Institute (IFT), Mexico still had 580,199 public pay telephones as of December 2024, a 10.6% drop from 649,177 such phones in 2019.

Telmex controls 97.5% of the market, while BBG Comunicación holds the rest — but vandalism and other damage have left many of these “phone booths” nonfunctional, especially in urban areas.

One year into the program, which operates through agreements with municipal governments, CFE Telecomunicaciones has installed 848 phone booths. (coatzacoalcos.gob.mx)

Critics argue that spending public resources on new phone booths would be better spent expanding digital infrastructure.

“There are no clear criteria for the installation of these booths,” said Jorge Bravo, president of the Mexican Association for the Right to Information (Amedi). “Although I have seen some in good condition, I have never seen anyone using the service.”

Apparently, there is no public data on actual usage minutes or cost of the new program, which critics say makes its effectiveness hard to assess.

Analysts told Expansión that the booths could eventually evolve into Wi-Fi hotspots for remote communities. 

CFE Telecomunicaciones e Internet para Todos (CFE-TEIT) is a CFE subsidiary created in 2019 to run the program “Internet para Todos” (Internet for All).

Its role includes installing public internet access points, building telecom towers and selling low‑cost mobile/data plans in addition to running the phone booth program.

With reports from Expansión, Grupo Zócalo and Récord

Joy meets fear as the Venezuelan community processes Maduro’s capture from Mexico

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A woman and small girl hug wearing Venezuelan ball caps
The black-and-white approach by some Mexican protesters to the United States' intervention in Venezuela was off-putting to some members of Mexico's Venezuelan community, Vera Sistermans reports. (Moisés Pablo/Cuartoscuro)

The Jan. 3 detention of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by the United States prompted street celebrations and protests in equal measure.

For most Mexico-based Venezuelans, however, the situation is far more complex than images of demonstrations and debates on social media suggest.

In San Cristobal de las Casas, Chiapas, a protester holds a sign reading: "Invasion is not celebrated. Strength, Venezuela."
In San Cristobal de las Casas, Chiapas, a protester holds a sign reading: “Invasion is not celebrated. Strength, Venezuela.” (Isabel Mateos Hinojosa/Cuartoscuro)

On Saturday morning, U.S. military forces entered Venezuelan territory, killing at least 80 people, including 32 Cuban members of the president’s security detail, before capturing Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, in the capital of Caracas. The pair was transported to New York, where they now face trial on charges including cocaine trafficking, to which both have pleaded not guilty. 

Hours after the operation, U.S. President Donald Trump announced at a press conference that his administration would oversee Venezuela “until we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition,” adding that U.S. companies would start operating in Venezuela’s oil reserves.

Many Venezuelans living in Mexico, far away from most of their family members, experienced a mix of emotions as information trickled in.

Jessica Valero, who arrived in Mexico in August 2024 after a long and arduous overland journey that took her through the Darién Gap, woke up to a message from her father saying that Caracas had been bombed. “I was really scared, really, really scared. I have some relatives in the military, and I’m very concerned for their safety.” 

Valero immediately called her dad, who confirmed all her family members were safe, and told her that Maduro had been captured. “And I swear you won’t believe me, but I couldn’t feel my legs. I mean, I had to kneel down and lean on something because I couldn’t believe it.”

‘A necessary evil’

Many Venezuelans in exile shared a similar experience: initial confusion, followed by excitement after hearing the news of Maduro’s arrest. However, their perspectives on what is to come differ. 

“Certainly, the situation in my country is very complex, and everything that has happened has generated a lot of controversy, but in my opinion, I think that this surgical intervention by the United States is a step that was necessary to restore democracy and stability to the country,” Valero said, adding that, “deep down, Venezuelans know that the United States’ involvement right now is a necessary evil.”

Bárbara Guevara, who has owned a Venezuelan restaurant in Mexico City for 12 years, echoed a similar sentiment. “I think that if it hadn’t happened this way, we would be like Cuba, and that scares me much more,” she said. However, her fear still outweighs hope. “I want Venezuela to become a new Panama. But based on Trump’s own statements, it’s going to become an Iraq.”

Manuel Chacón, a Chief Operating Officer of a technology company in Mexico City, who left Venezuela in 2017 after being at the forefront of many anti-government protests, is also hesitant to celebrate. “I’m not truly content. Obviously, one feels joy at seeing Maduro imprisoned, but matters are far from being properly resolved.” Worse, he fears the situation could deteriorate. “If the U.S. oversimplifies the problem and only changes the middleman, replacing Maduro with Delcy Rodríguez [Maduro’s vice-president], the situation could become much more complex than it was with Maduro.”    

Chacón had brought a special bottle of rum from Venezuela to celebrate the eventual fall of the Chavista regime, but it remains in his cupboard. “I didn’t want to open it even though I saw the photo of Maduro’s arrest. No, there is still some way to go.”

A woman celebrates on Saturday in Cancún, Quintana Roo, which is home to approximately 11,000 Venezuelans.
A woman celebrates with a flag on Saturday in Cancún, Quintana Roo, which is home to approximately 11,000 Venezuelans. (Elizabeth Ruiz/Cuartoscuro)

Mariela Hernández, who has lived in Mexico City for 10 years and currently runs an art workshop business, has a more positive outlook. “A country like the United States is not going to invest millions of dollars for another actor of the same Chavista government to remain in power; that is not going to happen.” She noted that “the transition will certainly be difficult, but there will be a path to democracy for Venezuela that has undoubtedly already begun.”

A Mexican lens

Hernández voiced that some Mexicans have expressed to her that they oppose the United States’ military actions in her country because they violate the sovereignty of the people. To this, she responded, “The sovereignty of my people was violated 26 years ago; there is no longer any sovereignty, there is nothing left to protect.” She added, “Yes, it’s an invasion, but it’s an invasion that will bring freedom to a country that has been oppressed for 26 years.” 

Silvia Lopez, a market analyst with a bachelor’s degree in political science from Monterrey, agrees that, as a Mexican who has not lived in Venezuela during Maduro’s regime, she does not have the knowledge to comment on what the end of Maduro’s presidency means for the country. At the same time, she fears that the foreign invasion of Venezuela sets a precedent for other countries, especially Mexico, as immediate neighbors of the United States: “Today it’s them, and tomorrow it could be us.” 

“I see it as a double-edged sword,” Lopez commented. “On the one hand, you want to celebrate the good news for all the people who have lived in precarious conditions because of Maduro’s regime. But at the same time, it is also worrying to see how easily the U.S. government was able to intervene and kidnap the current president of a country, although not a legitimate or democratic president, and drop bombs and attack the civilian population.” 

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has also condemned the U.S. military operation. “We categorically reject intervention in the internal affairs of other countries,” she said during her daily press conference on Monday, after Trump suggested over the weekend that “something has to be done about Mexico.”

Sheinbaum: ‘Intervention does not bring democracy to the people’

Mariana Pinto, a communication sciences graduate from Mexico City, takes a different stance. “I am in favor of the intervention. Whether it was Russia, China or the United States, someone had to intervene because the country was under a dictatorship that had plunged it into extreme poverty.” 

Pinto prefers to trust the opinion of the Venezuelans she has spoken to, who seem happy, instead of casting her own judgment as an outsider. “You shouldn’t talk about a country’s government and give your opinion, because they are the only ones who know what is happening.”

Two communities, contrasting responses

Many Mexican protestors who joined demonstrations on Saturday and Sunday would disagree with Pinto.

In Oaxaca city, for example, members of the National Coordinator of Education Workers (CNTE) and other social organizations took the stage on the main square’s kiosk after marching through the city center on Jan. 3 to voice their disapproval of Maduro’s capture.

“The aggression against Venezuela is an aggression against all peoples who fight for their sovereignty, self-determination and control of their natural resources. It is a message of war to any nation that dares to break away from imperialist logic,” one of the spokespeople exclaimed. 

“That is why from Oaxaca, a territory of struggle, resistance and dignity, we call for immediate and permanent mobilization, reaffirming that peace can only be built with social justice and popular sovereignty,” she added. Meanwhile, the public chanted “Stop the imperialist war,” “Yankees out of Venezuela” and “Yankees out of Latin America.”

The same day, a group of protestors in Mexico City gathered at the U.S. and Venezuelan embassies to “express the total rejection of any kind of U.S. intervention,” as Jorge Rivas, a political activist and an active member of the Communist Party of Mexico, put it. 

The approach by some Mexican protesters to the United States' intervention in Venezuela was off-putting to some members of the Venezuelan community in Mexico.
“Yankees out of Latin America, Venezuela resist!” reads a sign during a protest against U.S. interventionism on Jan. 3, 2026, in Oaxaca. (Vera Sistermans)

“This is a clear message to Mexico and the entire continent that any country that does not bow to U.S. interests will be invaded or intervened in,” Rivas said. “Always with an excuse supported by a narrative, such as the weapons of mass destruction of Asian countries, and today, the word terrorism is replaced by drug trafficking, and the same approach is taken.”

Some Venezuelans in Mexico City struggled to understand Mexican protestors’ motives and felt that by using Venezuelan flags, they were posing as Venezuelans while defending Maduro’s government. 

Valero shares this opinion: “It would be very inconsistent of me, coming from a country where freedom of expression is not currently possible, to say these protests [by Mexicans] are wrong.” But she argued, “As a Venezuelan, I reject the fact that there are people of other nationalities who pretend to be Venezuelan, supporting something they don’t really know because they haven’t experienced it themselves.”

Hernández agreed. “We don’t understand why the Mexicans not only spoke, but also pretended to know more about the situation in Venezuela than we ourselves, who have suffered all these years.”

Contrary to these protests, following the capture of Maduro, some Venezuelans took to Mexico’s state capitals to celebrate.

Hernández herself was one of dozens of Venezuelans who gathered at Polanco’s Parque Lincoln in Mexico City. “What motivated me to join this gathering was to celebrate the beginning of the end of the dictatorship in Venezuela,” she explained.

Valero, on the other hand, noted that celebrations feel premature. “There are many families in Venezuela that are crying for their relatives,” she said, “and others cannot celebrate or raise their voices because they are not allowed to.” As the situation develops, for most people, joy and fear continue to exist side by side.

Vera Sistermans is a freelance journalist and security analyst based in Mexico City. Her work mostly focuses on Indigenous culture, violence and resilience.

Opinion: Could Mexico make America great again? About that trade deficit

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Trump, Sheinbaum
As the United States and Mexico try to establish a common solution to trade concerns, one issue at the top of the list is Mexico’s growing bilateral trade surplus. (White House/X, Cuartoscuro)

We’ve already talked about how the debate between free trade vs. fair trade sits at the core of President Trump’s policy agenda.

It’s a wide and complex discussion — covering deficits, tariffs, international institutions, subsidies, dumping and plenty of other trade-related issues. For this piece, I want to focus on trade deficits because they are the real driving force behind Trump’s commercial instincts. Of all the texts in this series, this one probably brings out my inner David Ricardo the most. I’ll try to keep it digestible.

Over the past decade — especially the last eight years — the U.S.-Mexico trade relationship has intensified like never before. As most of you already know, Mexico and the United States are now each other’s top trading partners, both in exports and imports. Mexico is the largest buyer and seller for the U.S., and vice versa. But given the difference in economic size — roughly 16 to 1 (U.S.: ~$30 trillion vs. Mexico: ~$1.86 trillion) — and Mexico’s export-oriented model, Mexico naturally exports more than it imports. That dynamic has deepened Mexico’s trade surplus with the United States.

When Trump first took office, the U.S. trade deficit with Mexico stood at around US $63 billion. By the end of 2024, it had grown roughly 2.7x, reaching $171 billion. Well, well, well — that sounds like terrible news for Mexico with Trump back in office. And yes, it could be bad news. But only if we keep measuring trade deficits the wrong way.

(Picture me rolling up my sleeves — here comes the fun part.)

Why isn’t it enough to measure trade balances simply by adding and subtracting goods crossing borders?

Imagine you have a “trade relationship” with two entities. One is a car mechanic down the street; the other is a convenience store on the other side of town. Sadly for you, you run a $100 deficit with each. But here’s the twist: you’re also a car mechanic. Last week, you sold $900 worth of parts and oil to the nearby mechanic, and she sold you $1,000 worth of inputs you needed to keep your business running. That’s a $100 deficit. Meanwhile, you buy $100 worth of goods from the faraway convenience store — and sell them nothing. Same deficit. Completely different relationship. Right?

Now, let’s rename the characters. You are the United States. Closest-car-mechanic is Mexico. Faraway-convenience-store is China.

One way to assess trade relationships more intelligently is to look at trade deficits relative to exports. By 2024, the U.S.-China relationship showed a deep structural imbalance, with a deficit equivalent to -205.8% of U.S. exports to China. With Mexico, the figure is far more balanced, around -51.4% over time. In plain English: the U.S. trade deficit with Mexico rises and falls roughly in line with U.S. exports to Mexico. With China, the U.S. mainly imports finished goods and sells comparatively little in return.

There’s another way to look at this. We can adjust the traditional trade balance by subtracting the exports to the U.S. that are produced by U.S. companies operating in Mexico.

In 2023, Mexico exported about $560 billion to the United States. Roughly $220 billion came from manufacturing and export services. Of that amount, 80% originated from U.S.-owned firms, about $176 billion. That same year, the U.S. recorded a $152 billion trade deficit with Mexico. By this logic, you could argue that the “real” balance wasn’t negative at all. Interesting, right? That said, this approach is still imperfect, since those exports also contain non-U.S. components.

Which brings us to the last mile of the text: components and value added.

To truly understand trade relationships, we must measure them in terms of value-added content. Back to Closest-car-mechanic. If she sells me an engine for $100, that’s the headline number. But what if 75% of that engine’s components were initially produced by me and sold to her? Suddenly, the deficit looks very different — because we’re co-producing the engine.

This is precisely what happens between the United States and Mexico. Mexico has the highest share of U.S. components embedded in its exports — roughly 10 times more American content than Chinese exports and nearly three times the global average. And it works the other way too: among all foreign value added in U.S. exports, Mexico ranks first, accounting for about 13%.

And, keeping the car analogy, the auto industry works exactly like that: the U.S.-Mexico automotive trade deficit appears large in gross terms ($108 billion), yet, when measured in value-added terms, it reduces by 82% ($19.8 billion)!

I promised short essays, and I’ll keep my word. So let’s end with some cool and sexy takeaways. Not all trade deficits are created equal — and we shouldn’t treat them as if they were.

The U.S.-Mexico economic relationship has evolved from a traditional buyer–seller dynamic into a deeply integrated co-production system.

That system is like a scrambled egg. You can’t separate the yolk from the whites and put them back in the shell. The only sensible thing to do is keep scrambling — maybe add some bacon, cheese and more eggs — and make it even better. Cheers!

Pedro Casas Alatriste is the Executive Vice President and CEO of the American Chamber of Commerce of Mexico (AmCham). Previously, he has been the Director of Research and Public Policy at the US-Mexico Foundation in Washington, D.C. and the Coordinator of International Affairs at the Business Coordinating Council (CCE). He has also served as a consultant to the Inter-American Development Bank.

Ex-AG Gertz Manero to serve as Mexico’s ambassador to UK

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Alejandro Gertz Manero
Gertz, 86, resigned as federal attorney general in late November, two years before his nine-year term was due to end. (Andrea Murcia/Cuartoscuro)

President Claudia Sheinbaum revealed on Wednesday that former attorney general Alejandro Gertz Manero would serve as Mexico’s next ambassador to the United Kingdom.

“He’s going to Great Britain, to England,” Sheinbaum told her morning press conference.

She said that the United Kingdom has given its “consent” to the appointment of Gertz as Mexico’s ambassador, but noted that the Mexican Senate still has to approve it.

“After [that] he would go. Later, we’ll give you the date,” Sheinbaum said.

Gertz, 86, resigned as federal attorney general in late November, two years before his nine-year term was due to end. His almost seven years in the job were marked by controversy, including due to claims he misused his position for personal reasons.

Gertz was replaced by Ernestina Godoy, who served as Sheinbaum’s top legal advisor before becoming attorney general.

Former Sheinbaum advisor Ernestina Godoy sworn in as attorney general

Various media outlets reported last year that Gertz would become Mexico’s ambassador to Germany, but the government never confirmed that was the case.

“Soon we’re going to say where he’s going because there has to be a process between the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the [host] country,” Sheinbaum said on Nov. 28.

“Until the credentials are accepted, [the host country] can’t be announced, that’s a rule,” she said.

If his appointment is approved by the Senate, Gertz will replace former environment minister Josefa González-Blanco Ortiz-Mena as Mexico’s ambassador to the United Kingdom. She assumed her duties as ambassador in April 2021.

Almost two years before that, González-Blanco resigned as environment minister after causing the delay of a commercial airline flight and triggering a backlash on social media. She had been in the job for less than six months.

In his resignation letter, Gertz wrote that the proposal that he be appointed as an ambassador would allow him to continue serving his country.

During his long career, the Mexico City native has worked as a lawyer and an academic, and served as federal security minister during the presidency of Vicente Fox (2000-06) before becoming a federal deputy in 2009.

Mexico News Daily 

To be 102: An interview with painter Guillermo Monroy, Frida’s surviving student

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Guillermo Monroy
Guillermo Monroy is 102 years old and still making art. (Gobierno de Mexico)

Guillermo Monroy was born into a completely different world, 102 years ago on January 7th, 1924. His eyes have witnessed a century of tragedies, yet he loves everything the light touches. After nearly 90 years of painting, he continues on his quest to find beauty in everything and everyone, even in the things he’s not fond of.

“I always have new ideas, but when I am working, I do what the painting asks of me, like a water spring that flows slowly. It will go away, but it will never end. I do feel tired, but when I’m there … it’s so beautiful I feel like I’m in elementary school again.”

Guillermo Monroy
Guillermo Monroy amidst family in Cuernavca. (Guillermo Monroy)

A few days before his 102nd birthday, Monroy received us at his apartment in Cuernavaca, Morelos, where he has spent the last six decades of his life. The place is full of color, light and art materials of all kinds, including brushes, pastels and a big, empty canvas on his easel for an artwork he promised to his son, the renowned musician Guillermo Diego.

The kid

It is not easy to imagine him as a child. He spent his early years in Tlalpujahua, Michoacán, where he was born in 1924. After the mines ran dry, Monroy’s family left their hometown in the late 1920s and arrived in Mexico City to look for other ways to make a living. His parents, Sabás Monroy and Ignacia Becerril, had 10 children, no money and nowhere to go in the metropolis.

But the Monroys have always believed that things would work out. Guillermo’s dad left his family for a few hours at the Buenavista train station. He came back with a job and a place to live in Peralvillo. Some years later, they moved to Colonia Guerrero, one of the neighborhoods located a few blocks from Alameda Central, where La Esmeralda was situated. In this art school, he met Diego Rivera and Frida Kahlo, who later became his beloved teachers.​

The student

Monroy recalls arriving at La Esmeralda with wide eyes, amazed by everything that could be created there. “When I arrived at (the La Esmeralda School), I felt at home, (I knew) I had to stay there.”

Even though his family couldn’t afford for him to stop working — he was 16 by then — his father asked him to follow his passion because nothing compares to doing the one thing you love. “Don’t worry. We will always have some beans for you here. Do as you like,” his father told him.

Of course, it was all worth it. Monroy studied with some of the most important artists at the time (Francisco Zúñiga, Rómulo Rozo, Feliciano Peña, Raúl Anguiano, Agustín Lazo) and quickly became one of the four Fridos, the students of Frida Kahlo. Kahlo, who suffered from numerous health problems, had a brief career as a teacher at La Esmeralda. As a result of her worsening health, she invited her students to come over and paint in her garden, a suggestion from her pupils.

painting by Guillermo Monroy
A painting in Monroy’s series “Dinamismo de una geometría plástica continua.” (Guillermo Monroy)

Of the students invited, only four attended the sessions devotedly: Fanny Rabel, Arturo García Bustos, Arturo Estrada and Guillermo Monroy. As time went by, they became more than students to Kahlo and Rivera; the young artists were now their colleagues and part of their family.

Frida, as a teacher, introduced them to mural art, a passion that has followed them their whole lives. They collaborated with Diego on the stone-mosaic murals at Anahuacalli, and some of them later created their own in Centro SCOP, representing the four elements. Monroy was in charge of the earth.

From pupil to master

He learned not just to be an artist but to be a teacher. He started working at Secundaria 1 in Mexico City. After that, he was invited to work at the Regional Institute of Fine Arts in Chiapas. Monroy continued his journey in local art schools, for he was interested in decentralizing culture. This path led him later to Acapulco, Guerrero, where his first and only son was born: Guillermo Diego, named after him and his master. The beach town would be the last stop before his final landing in the state of Morelos.

Coming from the regional schools in the south of the country, Monroy wanted to create a place where people from Cuernavaca and its surroundings could build careers in the arts; he was the missing piece of the foundation of the Instituto Regional de Bellas Artes de Cuernavaca (IRBAC). There, he spent his working years as a teacher and colleague of those pursuing careers in visual creation. He remembers his students and feels accomplished for helping them pursue their shared passion.

The fighter

Guillermo Monroy has devoted his life to fighting for what he stands for. He has lost friends and family along the way and has been lucky enough to make it out alive to continue with the commitment. He often thinks about Luis Morales, one of his dearest friends, who was killed during a protest for workers’ and tenants’ rights. Also, when he was in his early 20s, he joined the Mexican Communist Party through the invitation of José Chávez Morado. Since then, an essential part of his life has been dedicated to seeking justice and raising his voice.  

The man, today

To this day, Monroy continues to learn anything he comes across. “I’m using pastels, I’m learning the technique,” he says while he displays his latest artwork in front of us. “It’s so simple and so wonderful. To know that something you couldn’t do before, something you were never taught, you are learning by yourself. You have to be the one to discover all this.”

Guillermo Monroy artwork
Another painting in the “Dinamismo de una geometría plástica continua” series. (Guillermo Monroy)

At the moment, he is working on a series called “Dinamismo de una geometría plástica continua(The dynamism of a continuous plastic geometry), an exploration of what are all the possible outcomes of a single line. 

The couple of hours we spend with him are not enough to unveil a hundred years of existence. As the conversation draws to a close, he confesses that he enjoys telling his story. We can absolutely say we enjoy listening.

“I would love to tell you everything from start to end … As you listen to it, I feel it … What lies ahead? Who knows?”

We say goodbye to Monroy, not without asking what his expectations are for turning 102. His response — I think — is not very different from what he has always expected from life.

“What more do I want? I want for us to keep seeing each other, for us to be happy, to hug each other, to congratulate each other, and keep on moving.”

Lydia Leija is a linguist, journalist and visual storyteller. She has directed three feature films, and her audiovisual work has been featured in national and international media. She’s been part of National Geographic, Muy Interesante and Cosmopolitan.

MND Local: Infrastructure upgrades and downtown makeovers in Los Cabos

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Fonatur glorieta Los Cabos
Work on the major Fonatur roundabout infrastructure project in San José del Cabo was recently suspended for the holidays. However, it’s still scheduled to be completed on time. (Ayuntamiento de Los Cabos)

“As residents of Baja California Sur, we never imagined how much the municipality of Los Cabos would grow, that it would become such a generator of foreign exchange, that we can say our planning fell short.” 

So noted Víctor Castro Cosío, governor of Baja California Sur, recently regarding a project to help keep infrastructure in line with Los Cabos’ unprecedented growth

Launch of Unidos por Los Cabos
Baja California Sur Governor Victor Castro Cosío and Los Cabos Mayor Christian Agúndez Gómez symbolically launch the “Unidos por Los Cabos” project. (Ayuntamiento de Los Cabos)

No, the subject was not the Fonatur roundabout upgrade in San José del Cabo, a massive 469 million peso project aimed at improving traffic flow in the municipality’s busiest traffic node (an estimated 60,000 plus vehicles daily). Although work was recently suspended for the holidays, that project is 62% complete and scheduled to finish on time this summer. 

Rather, what the governor was referring to, per Peninsular Digital, was the official December launch of “Unidos por Los Cabos.”

United for Los Cabos

The new project is actually a comprehensive master plan that combines several other programs and projects under the larger banner of improving mobility and urban image in Los Cabos. Announced just last month, Unidos por Los Cabos has many ambitious goals — and 300 million pesos with which to tackle them. 

One of the goals, for example, is to significantly reduce traffic accidents in the municipality. There were 8,000 of these in the five years between 2018 and 2023 and Unidos por Los Cabos is aiming to reduce this number by 20% and improve mobility generally through 200 new safe pedestrian crossings and rehabilitated sidewalks, 120 new well-marked bus stops, and, perhaps most importantly, the remodeling of “critical nodes” to help traffic flow more safely and efficiently through busy intersections. 

More green spaces and benchmarks to reach

However, this is only one of many objectives Unidos por Los Cabos is targeting, along with the creation of sports facilities and 20 parks to provide the municipality with more green spaces, and the beautification of the historic downtown centers of Cabo San Lucas and San José del Cabo. 

“This program is designed to involve all sectors,” affirmed Los Cabos Mayor Christian Agúndez Gómez. “The combined efforts will improve the urban landscape and strengthen mobility. Los Cabos belongs to all of us, and through coordinated work, we can move toward the municipality we want.”

Plaza Amelia Wilkes in Cabo San Lucas
Makeovers have been promised to the downtown areas of Cabo San Lucas, like Plaza Amelia Wilkes, as part of Unidos por Los Cabos. (Los Cabos Tourism Board)

What the governor and the mayor desire can also be glimpsed in the benchmarks they’ve set for Unidos por Los Cabos, which include not only a 20% reduction in traffic accidents but also a 15% improvement in travel times for local drivers.

Makeovers for downtown centers — and why they’re necessary

The rehabilitation, or beautification, promised to the downtown centers of Cabo San Lucas and San José del Cabo is certainly needed … in Cabo San Lucas. The Land’s End city has seen nightclub sales plummet in recent years. They were down 20% in 2023 and a very concerning 50% in 2024. Much of this has been credited to the so-called “all-inclusive effect,” in which visitors largely eschew the region’s many attractions to take advantage of their chosen property’s all-inclusive amenities — including accommodations, food, beverages, and sometimes even onsite nightclubs.

This type of traveling certainly isn’t good for downtown business owners, but it must be noted that the problem is different in Cabo San Lucas than it is in San José del Cabo, for reasons that go well beyond the popularity of all-inclusives. The former’s downtown has never received anywhere near the attention lavished on the latter, and as a consequence, has languished in recent years due to problems generally related to poor aesthetics and a lack of infrastructure. Nor are bar owners the only ones hard hit by declining sales.

“Rehabilitation” clearly is needed. The 140 million pesos earmarked for this project in downtown Cabo San Lucas and San José del Cabo will be paid for through the hotel tax that funds FITURCA (the Los Cabos Tourism Board), and is expected to begin in early 2026 as part of the overall Unidos por Los Cabos master plan. 

How police and firefighters kept Los Cabos safe on Christmas Eve

Fifty-three people in Los Cabos spent Christmas Eve in jail as a result of the aptly named Operation Guadalupe-Reyes — holiday revelry in Mexico peaks between the Day of the Virgin of Guadalupe on Dec. 12 and El Día de Reyes (Three Kings Day) on Jan. 6. Police set up mobile checkpoints and administered breathalyzers as part of an overall goal to reduce traffic accidents and keep roads safe during the holiday season. 

It was also a busy holiday for Cabo San Lucas bomberos, who responded to seven separate calls between the evening of Christmas Eve and Christmas morning. One was to put out a house fire. Perhaps the most dramatic, however, was a call in which they prevented a local man from committing suicide. Several other calls were for medical assistance or minor fires.

Cabo San Lucas bomberos
Cabo San Lucas bomberos respond to thousands of emergency calls each year. (Ayuntamiento de Los Cabos)

Firefighters in San José del Cabo, meanwhile, also had a busy Christmas Eve, thanks to a head-on collision between a motorcycle and a pickup truck that saw one man (presumably the motorcyclist) transported for additional medical attention. 

Hopefully, local first responders were able to enjoy the holidays themselves at some point. Los Cabos saw nearly 90% occupancy rates at local hotels and resorts during late December, a number that translates to a very Merry Christmas for the destination as a whole. 

Chris Sands is the former Cabo San Lucas local expert for the USA Today travel website 10 Best and writer of Fodor’s Los Cabos travel guidebook. He’s also a contributor to numerous websites and publications, including Tasting Table, Marriott Bonvoy Traveler, Forbes Travel Guide, Porthole Cruise, Cabo Living and Mexico News Daily.

MND Local: Puerto Vallarta unveils ambitious budget, tax incentives, transit changes and a new pirate ship for 2026

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Puerto Vallarta
2026 just got here, but already lots is happening in Puerto Vallarta. (Unsplash/Aliux Saavreda Cantellano)

As Puerto Vallarta steps into 2026, the city is brimming with developments that promise to enhance the quality of life for its residents and visitors alike. With a substantial budget increase, a series of tax incentives, updated public transportation rates and some swashbuckling thrown in, the city is laying a strong foundation for a prosperous year ahead.

2026 budget sees hefty increase

Puerto Vallarta is starting the year with an impressive budget of 3.1 billion pesos, marking a bold move towards enhancing the city’s future. This historic budget is a significant increase from last year and is designed to elevate the quality of life for residents through key investments in infrastructure, public safety and essential community services.

man paying property taxes in Puerto Vallarta
Those who pay their predial, or property taxes in Puerto Vallarta early this year will receive discounts. (Gobierno Municipal de Puerto Vallarta)

The plan highlights road improvement, park beautification and urban development initiatives, ensuring that Puerto Vallarta continues to thrive as a desirable place for both living and visiting. Social programs aimed at supporting vulnerable populations are also a top priority, demonstrating the city’s commitment to inclusivity and community well-being.

With this robust and ambitious financial plan, Puerto Vallarta isn’t just envisioning a bright future; it’s actively working toward it.

Early tax payments rewarded

The 2026 property tax season in Puerto Vallarta has begun, marked by a special ceremony recognizing early contributors to the city’s development. Dr. Claudio Rafael Vásquez Martínez demonstrated extraordinary commitment by being among the first to pay his taxes, arriving at the Municipal Administrative Unit at 1 a.m. on New Year’s Day. The local government hopes to collect around 600 million pesos this year, all of it earmarked to fund infrastructure projects and public services essential for the community.

To promote participation, the city is offering incentives such as a 15% discount for early payments in January and a 10% discount in February. A tiered discount program provides substantial savings for specific groups, including retirees and seniors.

With these supportive measures and the proactive engagement of residents, Puerto Vallarta could be poised for a prosperous year ahead.

Bus fares increase for some

Puerto Vallarta hasn’t seen a public transportation fee hike since 2018, so it comes as little surprise that 2026 would be the year to change that. Bus fares are increasing from 10 to 14 pesos, but to ease this transition for users, Jalisco Governor Pablo Lemus has announced a 1.2 billion peso subsidy plan, allowing passengers to pay only 11 pesos per trip through the “Al Estilo Jalisco” Unique Card, which subsidizes 3 pesos per ride.

Puerto Vallarta
Puerto Vallarta’s iconic former pirate ship, the Marigalante, sank last year. But a replacement is on the way. (pirateshipvallarta.com)

Mexican citizens with a voter ID can access the subsidized fare, while those without will pay the full fare. Discount protections for vulnerable groups, including students, seniors and people with disabilities, remain unchanged at 50%, reducing their cost to 7 pesos. 

The application for the new card will begin in January 2026, with plans to distribute 1.5 million cards by April. 

Ahoy there, matey

After the sudden and sad passing of the Marigalante, Puerto Vallarta’s famed pirate ship, the community has been waiting to welcome a new addition to its maritime heritage. The Jolly Roger, a vibrant and exciting vessel, set sail from Cancún in late October 2025, bringing renewed energy to the local tourism scene. 

Now docked in Puerto Vallarta, the Jolly Roger has been renamed Marigalante II, and it promises families and tourists alike a memorable experience filled with thrilling adventures on the high seas, complete with lively reenactments, treasure hunts and pirate-themed entertainment.

Whether you’re a seasoned pirate aficionado or a first-time visitor, the Marigalante II is set to be the must-see attraction of 2026.

Charlotte Smith is a writer and journalist based in Mexico. Her work focuses on travel, politics and community.