The issue that most gets our readers’ attention is that of the cartels in Mexico. We consistently hear comments that Mexico will never realize its full potential until it gets the cartels under control. I would agree wholeheartedly with that sentiment. The cumulative drag that corruption, threats, extortion and violence have on the people of Mexico, as well as on economic growth, cannot be underestimated. The roughly 20,000-plus deaths annually in Mexico as a result of the cartels, in addition to the over 80,000 deaths annually from drug overdoses in the U.S., take a massive toll on families, friends, and communities.
I often hear comments from Americans that Claudia Sheinbaum should get out of the way and let the U.S. military handle the cartels. Those who make this argument seem able to easily overlook the troubles that the U.S. military had upon getting involved in other countries such as Colombia, Iraq and Afghanistan. Recent history has shown that one country “helping” another with its internal problems often doesn’t work very well.
Those that make this argument also seem to think that the U.S. will somehow quickly and easily be able to handle the supply side of the drug trade in Mexico despite the fact that there has been extremely limited success handling the demand side of the drug issue in the U.S. They also think that the best way to deal with the supply problem is by handling it on the Mexican side of the border (versus focusing on the supply chain within the U.S.). A final argument I hear from people is that Claudia is “afraid” of cartels and is unwilling and incapable of doing anything serious to stop them.
So let’s take stock of where we are at, eight months into Claudia Sheinbaum’s presidency and nearly five months into Trump’s. Are we seeing any progress with the cartels?
Let’s look at some of the actual data and facts in six different areas to help us answer this important question.
1. Is there a more significant troop presence at the border than before?
Both the U.S. and Mexico have increased their troop presence at the border. The US has over 10,000 personnel between active troops and National Guard members. Just last week the U.S. approved another 1,000 troops. On the Mexican side, Sheinbaum has approved 10,000 National Guard members to work on the border.
US deploys over 1,000 additional troops to border with Mexico
2. Is there increased cooperation on surveillance?
Following reports of covert CIA drone flights over Mexico, Sheinbaum admitted that the Mexican military was cooperating with U.S. agents to spy on cartels and locate fentanyl labs. The drone flights began early this year and have not been authorized to conduct any strikes. There were also reports of at least 18 spy plane missions conducted in the U.S. Southwest and in international airspace around the Baja Peninsula.
Pentagon’s 18 spy plane missions near US-Mexico border spark surveillance concerns
3. Is the amount of drugs confiscated higher than before?
Recent drug confiscations at the Mexico-U.S. border and within Mexico have reached record levels, notably involving fentanyl and cocaine. The U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reported a historic seizure of approximately 4 million fentanyl pills weighing over 453 kilograms at the Lukeville, Arizona, Port of Entry — nearly quadrupling their previous record. In Texas, 1,555 kilograms of methamphetamine were also seized. In Mexico, the Navy intercepted 1.28 tonnes of cocaine off the coast of Michoacán, delivering a significant blow to traffickers. Additionally, Mexican federal authorities made the largest fentanyl bust in the country’s history by confiscating over 1,000 kilograms in Sinaloa, with an estimated economic impact of $400 million.
Federal authorities intercept more than 20 million fentanyl doses in Sinaloa
4. Have there been significant arrests of cartel leaders?
Recent arrests of drug cartel leaders have been significant in disrupting criminal operations. Francisco Román, a senior MS-13 leader, was arrested in Mexico. Additionally, Ismael ‘El Mayo’ Zambada, a top Sinaloa Cartel figure, was detained in the U.S. Ovidio Guzmán, son of ‘El Chapo,’ is set to plead guilty to drug trafficking charges. Other notable arrests include José Ángel Canobbio and Kevin Alonso Gil Acosta of the Sinaloa Cartel, and Carlos Treviño, leader of the Northeast Cartel. Earlier this year, Mexico extradited 29 cartel figures, including Rafael Caro Quintero, to the United States. And just recently, 17 family members of Joaquín ‘El Chapo’ Guzmán surrendered to the FBI at the U.S.-Mexico border. This event is linked to a potential plea agreement being negotiated by Ovidio Guzmán López, one of El Chapo’s sons, with U.S. authorities. It’s not yet known what impact these arrests will have on the flow of drugs, but there has been an increase in arrests as well as some unprecedented cooperation between the two countries.
In historic first, Mexico mass-extradites dozens of cartel operatives to the US
5. Has overall violence decreased?
Several weeks ago, the Sheinbaum administration gave an update highlighting a decrease in total homicides of 11% nationwide year to date versus last year. Security Minister Omar Garcia Harfuch reported that more than 20,000 people had been arrested for “high-impact crimes” since Sheinbaum took office and highlighted the seizure of more than 10,000 firearms. Despite the positive statistics, the administration and the entire nation were recently shocked by the murder of two close aides of Mexico City mayor Clara Brugada in a brazen morning rush hour attack. Other high profile incidents in Jalisco, Guanajuanto, and Baja California Sur have no one feeling that the security situation has significantly improved.
Mayor’s personal secretary and advisor murdered in Mexico City
6. What do leaders from the US have to say about the situation?
Several U.S. leaders, including President Trump, have recently weighed in on Mexico. Trump has — as perhaps is to be expected — heaped both praise and criticism on President Sheinbaum’s efforts to stop the cartels.
“Our relationship has been a very good one, and we are working hard, together, on the Border, both in terms of stopping Illegal Aliens from entering the United States and, likewise, stopping Fentanyl,” he wrote on social media on March 6. More recently, he told Fox News that “Mexico is, I think, very afraid of the cartels actually. I think the cartels run large sections of Mexico and I don’t want to say that because I’m getting along very well with the president.” In that interview, Trump went on to say that he is “dealing very nicely” with Sheinbaum, whom he described as “a very fine woman.”
Trump claims Mexico is ‘very afraid’ of its drug cartels in Fox News interview
The US head of Homeland Security, Kristy Noem, recently visited Sheinbaum in Mexico City and wrote the following: “Mexico’s deployment of National Guard troops to the border and acceptance of deportation flights is a positive step, but there is still much work to be done to stop the flow of drugs and illegal immigrants into our country,”
Just last week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said of Mexico: “… It’s been actually pretty positive. They have been very responsive on our security concerns, they’ve increased their security cooperation with us in ways that have been very productive,” The secretary of state also said he “intended to travel potentially to Mexico” in “the next few weeks” along with “a couple of other cabinet members to sort of finalize some of these areas of cooperation.”
My take: Despite still being very much in the early stages, we are in fact seeing a higher level of cooperation and commitment from both the U.S. and Mexican governments in wanting to get control of this situation in a way that we have not seen before.
What do you think?
Stay tuned to MND as we cover this issue — a critical one not just for each country, but for future U.S.-Mexico relations as well. I believe we will continue to see a very steady flow of news on this topic from both countries.
Travis Bembenek is the CEO of Mexico News Daily and has been living, working or playing in Mexico for nearly 30 years.
