After a news-filled 2025, we begin another important year for Mexico. If you didn’t check out the results of how I did versus my 2025 predictions, you can check it out here. What will 2026 have in store for Mexico? These are my 10 predictions for the year:
1. President Sheinbaum will continue to have a 70%-plus approval rating. Nearly every president sees their approval rating consistently decline during their term; I think Sheinbaum will be an exception as she continues to guide the country through difficult domestic and international issues.
2. Sheinbaum and her team will be successful in renewing the USMCA agreement with the U.S. and Canada in a way that maintains and even strengthens the relationship between the countries. There will be drama, there will be fireworks, but ultimately, the deal will get done.
3. Sheinbaum and her team will continue to make progress against the cartels and on violence in the country. After very limited results for six years under AMLO, a step change in actions and results began in 2025. We will see it continue in 2026. The country and the world will take notice.
4. The Mexican peso will finally start to follow the laws of economics and weaken against the USD. I predict that the peso will devalue at least 10% and finish above 20 pesos to the USD. Why? Slower economic growth, lower interest rates and higher inflation rates will all be contributors.
5. GDP growth, which is predicted to be between 1 and 1.5%, will surprise to the upside. I think 2% is possible, fueled by World Cup tourism spending, government infrastructure spending, help from U.S. growth and foreign direct investment.
How accurate were my 2025 predictions for Mexico? A perspective from our CEO
6. Mexico will make it out of the first round of the World Cup, but lose in the round of 16. Sorry Mexican fans, but I have seen it happen too many times before. That being said, Mexico will be a great host to the games and the world will take notice.
7. Tourism numbers will again hit a record, fueled by World Cup tourism and increased interest and excitement in the country’s many cities and attractions. Becoming a top 5 destination for tourists globally is in sight.
8. Continued tensions globally against China will make Mexico an increasingly attractive location for businesses to invest. As the U.S. receives more investment, Mexico will benefit as well. I think foreign direct investment will again hit a record in 2026.
9. AMLO’s legacy projects will begin to show some increased momentum. The Felipe Ángeles airport in Mexico City, the Dos Bocas refinery, the Interoceanic freight train, the Maya Train and the Tulum airport will all look like less “white elephant” projects than they did in 2025. They will all remain very far from profitability and expected capacity, but the momentum will be positive.
10. Sheinbaum will begin to make a positive dent in the energy industry. After largely ignoring the oil production (Pemex) and energy production (CFE) industries in 2025, she will begin to pressure them to reform and allow increased private investment. It will just be the start, but there will be a clear change in tone.
I will also add one “wild card” prediction. I think there is a strong possibility that there will be at least one drone strike against a fentanyl lab in Mexico. I don’t know if it will be done directly by the Trump administration, in coordination with the Sheinbaum administration, or solely by Mexico — but I think it will happen as the pressure is ratcheted up against the cartels.
What do you think? Do you agree with my predictions? Am I missing something? Please add your thoughts in the comments.
Travis Bembenek is the CEO of Mexico News Daily and has been living, working or playing in Mexico for nearly 30 years.
