MEXICO CITY — The Mexican Institute of Intellectual Property (IMPI) confirmed Monday that it processed and resolved a trademark dispute in under a week, a bureaucratic sprint that legal experts say has never before been achieved for anything that did not involve a duck wearing a soccer jersey.
The trademark, covering the name and likeness of Merlin, a pet duck belonging to Mexico City street vendor Karla Gómez, was granted after IMPI director Vidal Llerenas personally intervened on social media to settle competing claims from three separate applicants who had also attempted to register “El Pato Merlín” in the days following the animal’s viral fame.
Llerenas, writing from his official X account, declared it “a public and well-known fact” that the duck belonged to the Gómez family — a level of judicial certainty that intellectual property lawyers say typically requires several years, four appeals, and at least one expert witness.
“We’ve had cases pending review since 2019 that still haven’t gotten a comment from the director’s office,” said one IMPI staffer, speaking on condition of anonymity. “But say the word ‘duck’ and ‘World Cup’ in the same sentence and suddenly everyone remembers we have an Instagram account.”
Street vendors near the Zócalo, several of whom began selling unlicensed Merlin plush toys within 48 hours of his first viral video, expressed cautious optimism that the ruling would not affect their existing inventory, on the grounds that nobody at IMPI has historically enforced anything with this level of speed before and presumably would need to file a follow-up form to start.
Gómez, for her part, said she has no interest in enriching outside companies off her pet’s fame, with one notable exception: Corporativo Pascual, the soft drink maker, whom she said she would “like to help,” declining to elaborate — a level of corporate discretion that several PR firms have reportedly tried and failed to achieve for their actual clients.
As of Tuesday, Merlin’s legal team — which is to say, Merlin’s owner and a notario — had not commented on reports that at least two additional parties were exploring trademark applications for “Merlin’s little sneakers” as a standalone brand.
By Thursday, the duck had more enforceable intellectual property rights than most Mexican small businesses ever secure in a lifetime.
The predicted slight weakening of the peso by the end of June 2027 comes from a panel of foreign exchange experts responding to a poll by the news agency Reuters. (Shutterstock)
A year from now, the Mexican peso will be trading at just under 18 to the US dollar, according to foreign exchange (FX) experts polled by Reuters.
The news agency polled 24 FX specialists between June 26 and July 1, asking them to forecast the USD:MXN rate 12 months from now.
The experts polled by Reuters warned that additional interest rate cuts by Banco de México would risk further weakening of the peso. However, Mexico’s central bank has held rates steady recently and has indicated that future cuts are unlikely. (Moisés Pablo / Cuartoscuro.com)
The median estimate of the poll respondents was a USD:MXN rate of 17.78, a prediction that implies a slight depreciation of the peso over the next 12 months.
According to the Bank of Mexico, the peso closed at just under 17.50 to the dollar on Tuesday. A rate of 17.78 would represent a depreciation of 1.6% for the peso compared to the June 30 closing rate.
Reuters reported that “[e]xcept for a brief tumble at the start of 2020” — when the peso plummeted to around 25 to the dollar amid the then nascent COVID pandemic — Mexico’s currency “has traded between 16 and 22 per US dollar since July 2015, with a midpoint around 19.”
Citing its poll, the news agency wrote that the peso “will likely hold steady near the middle of its well-established trading range at least into the first half of 2027 … supported by foreign exchange market expectations for an economic recovery.”
Analysts: Additional interest rate cuts could weaken the peso
Reuters reported that it was told by analysts that “the peso may soften if dovish policymakers push for the resumption of interest rate cuts, which would reduce carry trade flows to profit from Mexico’s relatively high cost of borrowing.”
However, rate cuts don’t appear likely in the near term.
The peso generally benefits from the difference between a higher interest in Mexico and a lower interest rate in the United States. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s federal funds rate is currently set at a 3.50%-3.75% range, meaning that it is 2.75%-3% lower than Banxico’s key rate. An additional interest rate cut in Mexico could reduce that gap and contribute to a weakening of the peso.
How did the peso perform in the first half of 2026?
According to Banxico, the peso closed at 18.00 to the US dollar on Dec. 31, 2025 and just under 17.50 on Tuesday June 30. Therefore the peso appreciated 2.85% during the first six months of 2026.
The USD:MXN closing rate on Tuesday was slightly higher than the 17.32 rate from May 26 that Mexico News Daily used for its most recent MND Peso Index™ analysis. After calculating an implied exchange rate from the prices of the same 20 goods and services in Mexico and the United States, MND determined that the peso was overvalued by just over 4% in late May.
Using the same implied rate — 18.02 pesos per dollar — the peso, at Tuesday’s closing rate of 17.50 to the dollar, is overvalued by around 3%.
Thousands of people saw videos and live streams of "Gorda"
joining in a celebration of Mexico's World Cup victory on June 24. One of them was its owner, who had been searching for Gorda for a month. (Screenshot)
Ale García of Ciudad Victoria in the Mexican border state of Tamaulipas had been missing her dog Gorda for nearly a month when her pet was found in the last week of June.
How the two were reunited is a heartwarming example of the human kindness of the Mexican people, the positive use of social media and the power of Mexico’s World Cup fever to unite the nation — even across species.
García had immediately posted a request for help on social media to locate Gorda when her pet went missing on May 27, with no luck.
But after Mexico’s victory over Czechia on June 24, videos emerged on social media of fans celebrating in the street. Some of them clearly showed fans celebrating with a dog.
In one video, a man can be seen carrying the dog through the streets as people chant in celebration. People can be heard in the background saying: “Even the dog is celebrating”.
García’s brother saw a live stream of one such celebration and recognized the dog. It was Gorda.
After he told his sister the news, she posted a message asking for the dog to be kept safe until she could arrive. Users who were watching the live stream began sharing the pet’s location, and within minutes, several people helped keep Gorda safe until the long-awaited reunion.
After being reunited, García took Gorda to a vet for a check-up and was reportedly told that her dog, though thin and slightly injured, was healthy.
Wags on social media posted that the little dog “wasn’t lost; she was just out partying.”
Mexico City's Angel of Independence on El Paseo de la Reforma — an emblematic Mexican monument on an emblematic Mexican street — has long been the scene of victory celebrations — but seldom like that of Tuesday night, June 30. (Clara Brugada/X)
Tuesday was a memorable night in Mexico City following Mexico’s 2-0 victory over Ecuador, with crowds estimated at more than 1 million people taking to the streets to celebrate the country’s furthest advancement in the World Cup tournament since 1986.
Hundreds of thousands of them gathered around the Ángel de la Independencia in the middle of the stately Paseo de la Reforma, spilling into the surrounding streets. The celebration extended to the Historic Center, including the Zócalo, where the Fan Fest is located.
The massive celebration, with its party atmosphere, including mariachis and fireworks, went on until morning. (Galo Cañas / Cuartoscuro.com)
President Sheinbaum also watched and celebrated with others, but in the north of the city. Noting the size of the downtown celebrations, she later praised the “happiness” that the team had brought to the country.
The massive celebrations in Mexico’s capital, which kicked off with several rounds of fireworks, went on until Wednesday morning. Videos on social media show a few dozen people still dancing and celebrating near the Angel of Independence monument at about 9:00 a.m.
Throughout the night, Mexico City’s main avenues were overflowing with fans celebrating with waving flags, chants, and caravans of honking cars. Along Reforma, from the Angel of Independence to the Revolution Monument, the crowd flowed through street lanes and sidewalks, while live music and mariachis kept the celebrations going.
Mexico will play another home match at the Estadio Azteca on Sunday against England, after the team secured its spot in the next stage with the goals of Julián Quiñones and Raúl Jiménez.
The celebration inside the stadium after Quiñones’s goal was of such force that it registered on seismographs normally used to measure earthquakes in the capital.
The toll of the mass celebration: Four tragic deaths
Despite the deployment of screens throughout the city to avoid over-concentration of viewers in one spot, and the imposition of an alcohol ban targeted to popular gathering areas of the city, the sheer magnitude of the events defied all civil planning and four people died during the celebrations.
In a post on X, Mexico City’s Health Department (SS) announced Wednesday morning that it had received a report of “two unconscious people” on Hamburgo and Lancaster streets, suffering from asphyxiation. A 44-year-old man and a 19-year-old woman were taken to a hospital, the SS wrote on X. Despite receiving “advanced resuscitation maneuvers,” they later died.
According to the SS, both individuals have been identified by their family members.
Another victim, a 48-year-old woman, was also found unconscious on Berna Street in the Juárez neighborhood, where she received “resuscitation maneuvers” by paramedics, the SS said on X.
By Wednesday, the number of confirmed fatalities rose to four, according to press reports.
In a press conference on Wednesday, Ebrard stressed that the trade pact will continue working as it has been but will require annual trilateral reviews through 2036. (Galo Cañas/Cuartoscuro)
The Trump administration has declined to renew the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), the free trade pact that U.S. President Donald Trump negotiated — and which took effect — during his first term in office.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced the decision — which doesn’t immediately terminate the USMCA — in a statement on Wednesday after he met virtually with Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard and Canadian Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc.
Greer’s statement on the USMCA. (Screenshot)
The USMCA “requires the USMCA Free Trade Commission, composed of government representatives of each Party, to conduct a joint review of the Agreement on July 1, 2026,” Greer’s statement began.
“In accordance with the Agreement, the United States, Mexico, and Canada met virtually today to discuss the operation of the USMCA. The United States did not agree to renew the USMCA in its current form. As a result, the USMCA is not renewed,” the U.S. trade representative said.
Greer said that the United States “will continue to engage with Mexico and Canada to address the Agreement’s shortcomings and our trade deficits with these countries.”
“However, the Agreement remains in force pending resolution of these issues or until the Agreement’s termination. As previously announced, the United States will meet with Mexico the week of July 20 for a third round of bilateral negotiations related to the USMCA joint review,” he said.
According to Reuters, a senior U.S. official — who was not named by the news agency — said that talks in Mexico City would focus on strengthening North American rules of origin for autos and other industrial goods, and economic security to keep other countries from benefiting from USMCA access.
In early June, both Mexico and Canada notified their North American trade partners that they wished to extend the USMCA for an additional 16 years to 2042. Around a week later, Trump said he wasn’t seeking to renew the pact, which he described at the time as “sort of a good deal,” but which he once called “the best agreement we’ve ever made.”
As a result of the United States’ decision to not renew the USMCA in its current form, Mexico, the U.S. and Canada will have to conduct annual reviews of the pact before it expires in 2036. At some point in the future, the three countries could reach an agreement to extend a modified USMCA for an additional 16 years.
Trump has long railed against the United States’ trade deficits with Mexico and Canada, the two largest trade partners of the U.S. In addition to reducing those deficits, the U.S. president wants to protect U.S. industry, and to that end, has imposed tariffs on Mexican and Canadian vehicles, steel and aluminum. Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum agreed last year to work to reduce Mexico’s trade surplus with the U.S., which in 2025 was $197 billion.
Ebrard: There will be no immediate change to the USMCA
In a video message on Wednesday, Ebrard noted that if a country wants to withdraw from the USMCA, it has to give six months’ notice to its trade partners.
He stressed that no country has expressed its intent to withdraw from the pact, which superseded NAFTA exactly six years ago on July 1, 2020.
“That has not occurred, nor do we think it will occur based on the information we have up until now,” Ebrard said.
“The first thing we need to be clear about is that,” he said.
Ebrard said that Greer told him and LeBlanc on Wednesday that the United States is “not in the position” to be able to renew the USMCA for an additional 16 years.
“Therefore, we’re going to take the annual review track,” said the economy minister, who noted that Mexico, the U.S. and Canada could at some stage agree to renew the USMCA for 16 more years.
CNBC wrote in an article on Wednesday that yearly reviews “could result in the renegotiation of major parts of the treaty.”
In the short term, Ebrard said that the USMCA will continue working as it has been, asserting that there won’t be any immediate “modification” to the pact.
He noted that most of the trade between Mexico and the United States occurs in accordance with the USMCA, “which will remain in force, as I already said.”
Regarding annual USMCA reviews, Ebrard said that Mexico’s aim will be to reduce the number of “unresolved issues” between the parties year by year.
“In summary, the agreement continues, it’s scheduled to continue until 2036. … The current agreement won’t change in these days or in the coming months,” he said.
LeBlanc: USMCA ‘remains fully in force’
In a statement, LeBlanc said that he “reaffirmed Canada’s unwavering support for the CUSMA and its renewal” during his meeting with Ebrard and Greer. The USMCA is known as CUSMA (Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement) in Canada and T-MEC (Tratado entre México, Estados Unidos y Canadá) in Mexico.
Today, Minister LeBlanc met with his U.S. and Mexican counterparts for the #CUSMA Joint Review. He reaffirmed Canada’s support for CUSMA and its renewal. It remains in force until 2036 and can be renewed at any time for another 16-year period.
In his statement, LeBlanc also said that “the CUSMA supports millions of jobs across North America, and ensures Canadian businesses retain secure and predictable access to two of our most important trading partners.”
“It remains fully in force until 2036 and can be renewed at any time for another 16-year period,” he said.
The Canadian trade minister said that Canada, Mexico and the United States “agreed on the importance of continuing our discussions and identifying ways to ensure trade and investment frameworks between” the three countries “continue to support North American prosperity and competitiveness.”
“For Canada, this includes substantive discussions with the United States on addressing sectoral tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum, autos and lumber,” LeBlanc said.
For its part, Mexico is aiming to have U.S. tariffs on Mexican vehicles, steel and aluminum lowered if not lifted completely.
LeBlanc also said that the Canadian government looks forward to “further engagement with the United States and Mexico in the coming weeks and months as we work together to strengthen our shared economic prosperity.”
The USMCA governs trade worth around US $2 trillion annually. Trade between Mexico and the United States was worth US $873 billion last year. Mexico’s exports to the U.S. were worth $535 billion in 2025, accounting for over 60% of the two-way trade total.
The difference between an authentic Mexico team jersey and a counterfeit version is significant, not only in terms of price but for Mexico's manufacturing economy. (Adidas)
Mexico’s national team jersey is the best-selling shirt of this World Cup cycle. I don’t want to get too sociological about it, but the jersey is, above all else, a symbol. The green of our flag — which stands for hope — the sun, the graphics nodding to the Piedra del Sol (the cosmogonic centerpiece of Mexica civilization), and the eagle that recalls both our flag and the founding myth that gave Mexico its name. It’s national pride translated into performance fabric. After decades of being told to ponte la verde, the jersey became shorthand for Mexican solidarity itself.
On the left chest, opposite the crest, sits the Adidas logo. The official player version retails for around 3,000 pesos; the fan version, around 2,000. In a country where the general daily minimum wage rose to 315.04 pesos as of January 1, 2026 — roughly 9,451 pesos a month — an official jersey still represents a significant investment compared to what the lowest-paid worker earns. And the lowest-paid worker is not a marginal figure. According to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography’s first-quarter 2025 National Survey of Occupation and Employment, 40.1% of the employed population earns up to one minimum wage, and another 29.2% earns between one and two. Taken together, nearly seven out of 10 working Mexicans live on the equivalent of two minimum wages or less. When the math looks like that, counterfeits don’t appear by accident. They appear as a consequence.
Counterfeit in Mexico
The port of Manzanillo is one of the main entry points for counterfeit goods coming from China, including knockoff team jerseys. (SSA Marine Mexico)
As you also read here, federal authorities recently raided one of Mexico’s main counterfeit hubs, Tepito, and seized 25 tons of pirated merchandise, mostly national team jerseys. FIFA announced it would pursue legal action against vendors moving the goods, and the Mexican Institute of Industrial Property (IMPI) underscored that the operation was about protecting intellectual property.
But the numbers behind that image — stacks of green boxes piled to the ceiling — are enormous. According to the study “Piratería: Entendiendo el mercado sombra en México,” Mexicans consumed 63.262 billion pesos in counterfeit goods in 2025. A decade ago, the figure was 43 billion; it has grown nearly 50% in ten years. The damage translates to roughly 70,000 lost formal jobs, concentrated in the textile sector. According to data from IMPI, apparel (26.3%), footwear (26.3%) and accessories (24.7%) top the list of most consumed pirated goods in the country.
Zoom in on clothing alone, and the picture sharpens. The president of the National Chamber of the Textile Industry (Canaintex), Rafael Zaga, has repeatedly stated that three out of every five garments sold in Mexico come from the black market. The industry, which employs over 1.2 million people — most of them women — currently operates at only 70% of installed capacity. The remaining 30%, according to Canaintex, could be reactivated if department stores, supermarkets and government procurement prioritized Mexican-made products.
Where it enters, where it sells
Most of the counterfeit textiles sold in Mexico are not made here. They arrive, predominantly from Asia — overwhelmingly from China — through the ports of Manzanillo, Colima, and Lázaro Cárdenas, Michoacán, with secondary routes through Ensenada in Baja California and, increasingly, Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas, after a stop in the United States. Manzanillo is Mexico’s busiest port for containerized cargo; much of the problem passes through there.
How does it get in? Through subvaluation — declaring merchandise at a token value to dodge taxes — through route triangulation, re-labeling, “ant smuggling” (small repeated crossings) and, in the worst cases, with the complicity of customs personnel. In June 2025 alone, container abandonment at Manzanillo spiked 300%: roughly 900 containers, most of them carrying counterfeit Chinese goods, were left at port by importers who preferred to lose the cargo rather than face intensified inspections. Canaintex calculated tax evasion in the textile sector at 8.5 billion pesos in 2023 alone.
Pirate markets
Once inside the country, the merchandise flows to three main hubs that the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) identified in its annual Notorious Markets report: Tepito in Mexico City; the Libertad market — better known as San Juan de Dios — in Guadalajara; and El Santuario, also in Guadalajara, which functions more as a wholesale warehouse than a retail point. The National Citizen Observatory has mapped at least 19 “notorious counterfeit markets” across the country, with 31.6% concentrated in Mexico City and 21% in Jalisco. Tepito alone supplies not only the rest of Mexico but, according to the USTR, also Central America.
The sprawling Tepito Market in Mexico City is one of the main hubs for counterfeit goods flowing into Mexico. (JAPI)
In these markets, a pirated national team jersey sells for between 100 and 350 pesos, depending on “quality” — because, as a vendor once told me, “hay clones y hay piratería.” Canaco CDMX estimates that during the World Cup, counterfeit merchandise could account for up to 25% of informal commerce revenue in Mexico City’s Historic Center.
Who wins, who loses
It’s tempting to imagine that every peso paid for a fake jersey stays in the pocket of the woman selling it outside the market. The reality is considerably less romantic.
Losses to the Mexican textile industry, according to the sector’s own chambers, run into tens of billions of pesos. FIFA estimates that official sales drop by at least 8% due to counterfeiting. The state forgoes VAT, income tax and customs duties — money that will not be transformed into infrastructure. The 70,000 formal jobs lost have names, surnames and benefits left unpaid.
So who profits? According to federal intelligence reports cited by La Razón and Animal Político, after the year 2000 — following the split between Los Zetas and the Gulf Cartel — the counterfeit business in informal markets moved from the hands of merchant leaders to organized-crime cells. La Unión Tepito has been historically linked to controlling much of this chain, alongside networks dedicated to smuggling and extortion (cobro de piso). Counterfeiting in Mexico is not just a parallel economy: it is one of the financing mechanisms organized crime uses to launder money and hold territory. Globally, piracy generates between US $923 billion and US $1.13 trillion annually — more than the global drug trade.
The street vendors — most often women with children, according to La Razón‘s reporting from Mexico City’s Historic Center — keeps a gross margin of 200 to 300 pesos per shirt. Not nothing, for someone who needs it. But not the fortune, either. The fortune is further up the chain.
The cult of the logo
To quote the Catholic Mexican grandmothers, en el pecado llevamos la penitencia — our sin carries its own punishment. We are a class-conscious society that, like the rest of the hyperglobalized capitalist world, attaches enormous weight to logos and what they signify. Mexicans are still a long way from the “quiet luxury” aesthetic. Exhibit A: the merchant who recently showed up to a meeting with the president head-to-toe in fake Gucci. And to be clear: that’s not a critique, it’s a description.
In class-driven societies like that of Mexico, logos are status symbols, but not everyone can afford the genuine articles. (Adidas)
Most Mexicans are maximalists. We love color, we love whatever calls attention and, above all, we love logos. Logos signal a certain economic capacity to access “exclusive” brands, and in a society that discriminates not by race but by class, the logo becomes a symbol of social mobility. And that is exactly what the Chinese counterfeit market is reading.
False narratives
I got into a silly Instagram argument that prompted this article. The author of the video was essentially saying: “Better the money stays with the vendors than with Adidas.” The narrative is seductive, but it assumes that Adidas and the smuggling network feeding Tepito are the only two actors in the room. I tried to explain that piracy isn’t the solution — because the Mexican textile industry (not in the specific case of an Adidas-licensed jersey, but broadly speaking) also includes the maquiladoras of Puebla, the textile mills of Aguascalientes, the seamstresses of Iztapalapa, the small Mexican brands that pay VAT and the families who depend on the 1.2 million formal jobs the sector generates. It was useless: I only earned the label Whitexican for my trouble.
According to the Confederation of National Chambers of Commerce, Services and Tourism (Concanaco), 85% of Mexican companies are family-owned and there are roughly 4.5 million “micro, small and medium enterprises” (MSMEs). When we buy a 200-peso jersey from a stand, we don’t take money out of Adidas. We take it out of the family tailoring workshop, the young designer trying to launch a brand and the textile worker in Tlaxcala who sews for minimum wage and statutory benefits.
A possible way out — not banning, but reimagining
I understand the phenomenon. When it costs 28,000 pesos in paperwork just to open a small business, when the minimum wage doesn’t stretch to an official jersey, when the shirt is identity rather than caprice, asking people to skip the knockoff sounds like a sermon from someone who’s never had to choose between ElTri and the rent. Counterfeiting will not end with theatrical Tepito raids every six months, nor with moralizing columns like this one.
But maybe we can start doing something else: rethinking how and from whom we consume. Mexico has one of the richest textile traditions in the world. We have Carla Fernández taking Indigenous patterning — la raíz cuadrada — to museums like the Victoria & Albert in London and the Fashion Institute of Technology in New York, working with more than 175 artisans across 12 states. We have Boyfriend’s Shirt in Guadalajara, Sangre de mi Sangre, MANCANDY, Maison Manila and an entire generation of emerging brands — according to the National Chamber of the Clothing Industry (Canaive), 60% of new fashion brands in Mexico are independent projects — building a national proposal that doesn’t need to copy anyone.
Choosing your own symbol
We also have a domestic sportswear industry — Charly, Pirma and ABA Sports — that dresses Liga MX teams and national selections across multiple disciplines. Not to mention neighborhood workshops that screen-print jerseys to order at reasonable quality. We have options, and many are accessible.
This isn’t about canonizing consumption and demonizing the buyer of counterfeit goods. No one is in a moral position to judge another household’s paycheck. It’s about understanding that the question isn’t “Adidas or fake?” But “what economy am I feeding with each peso I spend?” If we could flip that conversation — from police operations to promoting Mexican talent; from ponte la verde as obligation to vístete de México as conscious choice — we probably wouldn’t solve the problem, but we would start building a response that could last longer than a World Cup.
At the end of the day, the jersey is a symbol. What we choose to wear is one, too.
Maria Meléndez writes for Mexico News Daily in Mexico City.
Welcome to the third edition of the MND Sheinbaum Index™, an eight-pillar index designed to give our readers balanced, data-driven insight into the current situation in Mexico across a range of areas under the leadership of President Claudia Sheinbaum.
As we wrote in our inaugural Sheinbaum Index article, most of what you hear anecdotally about Claudia Sheinbaum fits into one of two buckets: breathless admiration or reflexive dismissal, often without a lot of evidence or data to support the opinion expressed.
Neither tells you much about how Mexico is actually doing on her watch. The MND Sheinbaum Index™ was built to fill that gap.
In this third edition of the index — which mainly uses data from the month of May — the headline number is 64.8, representing an improvement of 4.8 points compared to the previous score. A detailed summary of the latest results appears below.
Before we look in detail at the latest results and examine the index trend in early 2026, here is a short guide to the significance of a Sheinbaum Index score:
85–100: Exceptional — administration performing at a high level across nearly all indicators.
75–84: Excellent — administration performing well across most indicators.
60–75: Quite good, but room for improvement — meaningful strengths, some areas of concern.
50–60: Mixed — passing marks overall.
Below 50: Broad underperformance — more indicators below benchmark than above.
(Mexico News Daily)
The MND Sheinbaum Index™ trend in 2026
The MND Sheinbaum Index™ score is now back to where it was in February after dipping to just above 60 in March and 60 flat in April. Factors such as inflation of around 4.5% in each of March and April, as well as annual economic growth of 0.5% or lower in those months, caused the deterioration in the index score compared to February, when inflation was very close to 4% and economic growth was above 1%.
The 4.8-point, month-over-month improvement in the index score in May was mainly due to inflation falling below 4%, homicides declining at a faster annual pace and economic growth improving. Scores for five of the eight index pillars increased in May compared to the previous month. More detail on the performance of each of the pillars in May is provided below.
(Mexico News Daily)
MND Sheinbaum Index™ pillars for May 2026
Each pillar is given a stoplight color indicating a strong performance (green), an average performance (yellow) or a poor performance (red). An upward-pointing arrow ⬆️ indicates that the pillar score improved compared to April. A downward-pointing arrow ⬇️ indicates a deterioration in the pillar score. A pause icon ⏸️ means there was no change in the pillar score compared to the previous month.
🟢 ⬆️ INFLATION (10.15 out of 12.50)
In May, the inflation pillar replaced the labor poverty pillar as the top contributor to the overall index score. Mexico’s annual headline inflation rate eased from 4.45% in April to 3.94% in May, the lowest reading since January and just 0.94 percentage points above the Bank of Mexico’s 3% target. The inflation pillar score consequently rose to 10.15 from 8.88 in April — a gain of 1.27 points.
🟢 ⏸️ LABOR POVERTY (10.10 out of 12.50)
The labor poverty pillar score was unchanged from April at 10.10. The labor poverty rate decreased 3.2 percentage points annually in the first quarter of 2026 — the same reading as April, as this pillar runs on a quarterly lag. Real incomes increased 7.4% year-over-year, also unchanged from last month.
🟢 ⬇️ TOURISM(8.78 out of 12.50 — This pillar has a one-month lag)
International arrivals increased 8.1% year-over-year in April, the data period used for May’s index. That represents a slowdown from the 11.9% rise recorded in March, pulling the tourism pillar score down from 9.97 in April to 8.78 in May.
🟡 ⬆️ SECURITY (8.58 out of 12.50)
The pace of homicide reduction accelerated in May after three consecutive months of slowing. The year-over-year decline in homicides was 27.6% in May, per data presented at Sheinbaum’s June 16 press conference, up from 20.3% in April. The security pillar score consequently rose from 7.30 in April to 8.58 in May.
🟡 ⬆️ APPROVAL RATING (8.56 out of 12.50)
Sheinbaum’s average approval rating edged up slightly to 68.5% in May from 68.2% in April. Thus, the approval rating pillar score nudged up from 8.53 in April to 8.56 in May. At the time of publication, Mitofsky/El Economista had not published poll results for May, so we substituted the Enkoll/El País/W Radio poll in its place. That poll detected a 68% approval rating for the president. Per El Financiero, Sheinbaum’s approval rating was 69% in May.
🟡 ⬆️ EMPLOYMENT (7 out of 12.50)
Mexico’s unemployment rate, at 2.8% in May, was unchanged compared to a year earlier. This component of the pillar was scored at 68 out of 100, as the unemployment rate was slightly better than the neutral 3% benchmark (60 points). The informality rate increased 0.3 percentage points year-over-year in May, an improvement on the 0.5-point rise recorded in April. As both sub-components improved — the unemployment component in accordance with the tweaked methodology — the employment pillar score increased from 5.63 in April to 7 in May. While unemployment in Mexico is quite low, the percentage of workers employed in the informal economy is very high — 55.2% in May.
🟡 ⏸️ BUSINESS CONFIDENCE (6.36 out of 12.50)
Mexico’s business confidence score, as measured by a monthly INEGI survey, was 48.2 in May, unchanged from April. The FDI component also held steady at +10.4% year-over-year, as the latest available data is once again the Q1 2026 figure reported by the federal Economy Ministry in late May. With no movement in either sub-component, the business confidence pillar score was unchanged at 6.36.
🔴 ⬆️ ECONOMIC GROWTH (5.25 out of 12.50)
Year-over-year economic growth in May was 1.1%, according to preliminary data from INEGI — an improvement on April’s 0.3% preliminary reading — which was revised upward to 2.2% — but still well below the 2% anchor that earns a neutral score of 60. The economic growth pillar score rose from 3.25 in April to 5.25 in May, though the pillar remains the worst-performing of the MND Sheinbaum Index™.
(Mexico News Daily)
What to watch
The next MND Sheinbaum Index™ will focus on the month of June.
Here are three things to look out for in the June Index, which we will publish in early August.
Employment: When we publish our next MND Sheinbaum Index™, we will be able to directly compare the overall index score, and the employment pillar score, to those of this edition as for a second time we will have used the slightly-tweaked methodology. In each of our three focus months to date — March, April and May — Mexico’s stubbornly-high informality increased from a year earlier. A better performance in this component of the employment pillar is much-needed and would help lift the overall index score.
Economic growth: Mexico hosted 12 FIFA men’s World Cup games in June, and according to business group Concanaco, there was a tournament-related economic windfall of US $1 billion in the first 13 days of the tournament (June 11-24). It will be interesting to see whether this spending gives a boost to Mexico’s annual growth rate in June.
Mexico News Daily
* MND acknowledges that President Sheinbaum does not directly control outcomes in all eight pillars. For example, global commodity prices and tariff decisions in Washington can affect Mexico’s inflation and growth rates. The Index measures what is happening in Mexico on Sheinbaum’s watch.
** We note that for this edition of the MND Sheinbaum Index™ we made a slight tweak to our index methodology, and consequently, the overall index score is 1.1 points higher than what it would have been. Instead of scoring unemployment based on the year-over-year change in the unemployment rate, we are now measuring the unemployment rate — which constitutes 50% of the employment pillar — against a 3% benchmark. A rate of 3% yields a score of 60, whereas a rate of 2% (or any number below that rate) gets a perfect 100. Thus, four points are subtracted for every 0.1 percentage point that the unemployment rate rises above 2%. We note that this change makes a comparison between the latest index score and the previous one imperfect. However, we believe that this is a fairer way of scoring Mexico’s unemployment rate, which is one of the lowest among the 38 OECD countries.
President Sheinbaum congratulated the Mexican team on Wednesday for playing "with heart, with soul and with pride." (Andrea Murcia/Cuartoscuro)
Sheinbaum’s mañanera in 60 seconds
⚽ El Tri advances, but tragedy strikes: Sheinbaum celebrated Mexico’s 2-0 win over Ecuador — the country’s first World Cup knockout victory since 1986 — calling it “a source of pride for all Mexicans,” but also expressed the government’s solidarity with the families of three people who died of suffocation in apparent crowd crushes near the Angel of Independence during post-match celebrations. She said Mexico City’s Attorney General’s Office will review what happened and consider preventative measures ahead of Sunday’s match.
🎉 Celebrations across the country: Sheinbaum shared a video of El Tri celebrations in the Mexico City Zócalo, Guadalajara’s Glorieta La Minerva and Veracruz, among other places, and read aloud her social media post praising the team for playing “with heart, with soul and with pride.”
🌎 World Cup as tourism boost: Sheinbaum asserted that foreign visitors’ positive experiences during the World Cup — contrasting with perceptions of Mexico as violent — will drive future tourism, crediting “the happy, hospitable people of Mexico” as the country’s best promotional campaign.
Why today’s mañanera matters
President Claudia Sheinbaum’s Wednesday morning press conference came the morning after Mexico’s World Cup football team, El Tri, defeated Ecuador 2-0 at Mexico City Stadium (aka Estadio Azteca). The victory — Mexico’s first in a World Cup knockout match since 1986 — sparked boisterous celebrations across Mexico, including in the vicinity of Mexico City’s Angel of Independence monument, where around 1 million people are said to have gathered.
Sheinbaum watched the match with Mexico City Mayor Clara Brugada at a fan festival in the borough of Azcapotzalco.
President Sheinbaum and Mexico City Mayor Clara Brugada watched Tuesday’s match with neighbors of Azcapotzalco in the northwest part of the capital. (Presidencia/Cuartoscuro)
Despite that tragedy, Sheinbaum said that “the happiness of the people of Mexico today is very great.”
Also of note at today’s mañanera were the president’s remarks about how the World Cup in Mexico — and especially the happiness of celebrating Mexicans — will help attract more foreign tourists to the country.
Sheinbaum congratulates El Tri
Sheinbaum presented a video showing celebrations in different parts of Mexico during and after El Tri’s match against Ecuador, nicknamed “La Tri.” Among the places featured were the Mexico City Zócalo — site of the official FIFA Fan Festival, Glorieta La Minerva in Guadalajara and the port city of Veracruz.
After the video played, Sheinbaum congratulated “la selección” before applauding the team.
“They played with heart, with soul and with pride. Today our team gave us unforgettable happiness and showed that we must never stop believing in Mexico. Thank you for defending our colors with passion and for making an entire country celebrate together. May the cry of goal continue ringing loud! ¡Viva México!”
Sheinbaum read out her post at this morning’s press conference.
She also said that the Mexican team “gave it their all” on the pitch, displaying “exceptional professionalism.”
“[The victory] is a source of pride for all Mexicans,” Sheinbaum said.
Sheinbaum laments death of 3 people during post-match celebrations
At the start of her press conference, Sheinbaum told reporters she was hoarse from yelling “goal!” during Tuesday night’s match.
She subsequently expressed the federal government’s “solidarity” with the families of three people who died of suffocation during post-match celebrations in the vicinity of the Angel of Independence, a monument on Mexico City’s Paseo de la Reforma. The victims, a 44-year-old man, a 19-year-old woman and a 48-year-old woman, were apparently killed in crowd crushes. The Mexico City Health Ministry reported the deaths.
#EnLaMañanera | Claudia Sheinbaum señala que, tras el fallecimiento de tres personas en los festejos mundialistas de #México en Reforma y Ángel de la Independencia, revisará si implementa más medidas de seguridad y prevención de accidentes pic.twitter.com/k9yqcIkwhs
Sheinbaum said that Mayor Brugada had been in contact with the victims’ families. She also said she had instructed Interior Minister Rosa Icela Rodríguez to provide “all necessary support.”
Later in the press conference, Sheinbaum said that the Mexico City Attorney General’s Office has to review “exactly what happened” during the celebrations near the Angel of Independence.
“We’re going to look at exactly what happened and see if some preventative actions are needed for Sunday,” she said.
At Mexico City Stadium on Sunday, Mexico will play the winner of Wednesday’s round of 32 match between England and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Sheinbaum: All foreigners who came to Mexico for the World Cup will return
Sheinbaum asserted that all the foreign tourists who have come to Mexico for the World Cup will return to the country. She has noted on several occasions that World Cup visitors have been warmly welcomed by Mexicans, and claims that the World Cup atmosphere — including post-match celebrations — is better in Mexico than in the United States or Canada.
On Wednesday morning, Sheinbaum said that foreigners who have visited Mexico during the World Cup will talk to their friends and family about their experience in Mexico and what Mexican people are like.
“That part is very important [for tourism promotion], as is the international promotion [showing] how the World Cup is experienced” in Mexico, she said.
“… They said that Mexico was nothing but violence,” Sheinbaum said.
“Nobody imagined they were going to arrive in Mexico City, Monterrey or Guadalajara and there was going to be the jubilation there is,” she said.
“… What is happening in Mexico is the best [tourism] campaign. … And who did it? The people, the people did it. The happy, hospitable people [of Mexico].”
By Mexico News Daily chief staff writer Peter Davies (peter.davies@mexiconewsdaily.com)
Julian Quiñones (seen flying) and Raúl Jiménez scored first-half goals, leading Mexico to a dramatic 2-0 win over Ecuador Tuesday night at Mexico City Stadium. (Moisés Pablo/Cuartoscuro)
Julián Quiñones and Raúl Jiménez scored first-half goals, leading Mexico to a dramatic 2-0 win over Ecuador Tuesday night at Mexico City Stadium, El Tri’s first victory in a World Cup knockout game in 40 years.
Goalie Raúl Rangel made a remarkable save to preserve the advantage shortly before halftime and El Tri saw out the remaining 45 minutes efficiently, improving Mexico’s all-time World Cup record at the iconic Mexico City stadium to 7-2-0.
¡QUIÑONES, QUIÑONES, QUIÑONES!
Con una gran definición y potente derechazo, Julián Quiñones abre el marcador para México con tremendo GOLAZO pic.twitter.com/eAUmdIFb1q
— Telemundo Deportes (@TelemundoSports) July 1, 2026
Electrical storms delayed kick-off by an hour, but coach Javier Aguirre’s men started the game on the front foot, creating three good scoring chances in the first 15 minutes.
Mexico City Stadium (and millions in plazas across the country) erupted in full-throated celebration shortly thereafter when Quiñones fired a shot into the short-side netting, his third goal of the 2026 World Cup.
Quiñones raced down the left flank in pursuit of a perfectly weighted lead pass by Roberto Alvarado, dribbled into the box, then turned defender William Pacho around, before thumping the ball past Hernán Galíndez. 1-0 Mexico.
Just past the half-hour mark, Quiñones played facilitator, feeding Jiménez at the top of the box with enough room to take one touch before spinning a right-footed shot inside the right post, doubling Mexico’s lead.
It was the first time Ecuador had given up two goals in a game in more than two years.
Jiménez created the chance by acrobatically flicking the ball into the Ecuador defensive third, then stealing a stubbed clearance by center-back Joel Ordóñez.
The goal by Raúl Jiménez (right) lifted him into second place on the all-time Mexico scoring list with 47, just five behind Javier “Chicharito” Hernández. (Moisés Pablo/Cuartoscuro)
The former Fulham forward eluded Chelsea midfielder Moisés Caicedo about 25 meters from goal and squared a pass to Quiñones at the top of the box. Quiñones stepped around Alan Franco and slipped a return pass to Jiménez who had drifted into a clearing between four Ecuadorian defenders with space to control and shoot.
Jiménez’s goal lifted him into second place on the all-time Mexico scoring list with 47, just five behind Javier “Chicharito” Hernández.
Less than 10 minutes later, the 26-year-old Rangel rose to the occasion. At full stretch, the Chivas goalkeeper parried aside a John Yeboah blast that was ticketed for the far corner. He followed that up by punching the ensuing corner kick clear of the box, leading to a short-lived breakout that set Ecuador back on its collective heels.
Aguirre may have been disappointed that Mexico squandered a few chances to increase the lead before halftime, but his men won the tactical battle thereafter.
Despite ceding possession to Ecuador in the second half, El Tri still outshot the South Americans 14-4 and harassed Sebastián Beccacece’s squad into numerous unforced errors, even provoking stalwart defenseman Piero Hincapíe into losing his composure and earning a red card.
President Sheinbaum and Mexico City Mayor Clara Brugada watched Tuesday’s match with neighbors of Azcapotzalco in the northwest part of the capital. (Presidencia/Cuartoscuro)
Mexico maintained solid defensive shape throughout and enough counterattacking flair in the second half to keep the flashy Ecuadorians at bay, continuing its perfect run into the Round of 16 and a potential clash with world No. 4 England next Sunday.
With the victory, Mexico improved its all-time record at Estadio Banorte (formerly Azteca) in nine World Cup games to 7 wins and 2 draws (with 15 goals scored and 2 goals allowed). This includes three wins this month (2-0 over South Africa in the inaugural match, 3-0 over Czechia on June 24 and Tuesday’s triumph).
Post-game notes
With the victory over Ecuador, El Tri is now 2-2-7 all-time in World Cup knockout games, its only prior win coming just over 40 years ago, at the very same venue in southern Mexico City.
That 2-0 victory over Bulgaria in a Round of 16 match on June 15, 1986, featured the Greatest Goal in World Cup History (according to a 2018 FIFA poll). Also of note, Manuel Negrete’s stunning left-footed scissors kick was assisted by none other than Javier Aguirre.
Goalie Raúl Rangel has yet to let a single goal hit his net in this World Cup. (Edgar Negrete/Cuartoscuro)
With Tuesday night’s shutout, El Tri is one of just two teams yet to give up a goal at the World Cup; Spain — which will play its Round of 32 match on Thursday against Austria — is the other.
Mexico is also only the fourth team in FIFA World Cup history to start a tournament with four straight shutouts, joining Brazil (1986), Italy (1990) and Switzerland (2006).
Guadalajara hosted four group stage games in this year's World Cup, giving local fans the chance to see international stars such as Spain's teenage prodigy, Lamine Yamal. (Edgar Negrete Lira/Cuartoscuro)
Guadalajara wrapped up hosting duties for the 2026 FIFA World Cup last week with two games at Guadalajara Stadium, while Plácido Domingo performed a sold-out concert at the Santander Performing Arts Center in Zapopan to cap Jalisco’s World Cup cultural program. However, for those who have soccer fatigue (or never cared to begin with), there is also a stellar modern art exhibit showing at Museo Cabañas in the city center.
Spain beats Uruguay with a monarch in attendance
The city’s crème de la crème turned out in force for the final night of live World Cup action at Guadalajara Stadium last Friday night, a highly anticipated matchup between the national teams of Spain and Uruguay. With most attendees sporting new Spanish team jerseys, the stands were transformed into a sea of crimson, save for a few pockets of blue and white worn by the outnumbered Uruguayan fans.
Spain’s King Felipe VI visited Guadalajara to see his nation’s team play Uruguay in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. (Edgar Negrete Lira/Cuartoscuro)
The game itself was uninspired and at times downright boring, with neither side delivering much spark or creativity on the pitch. But Spain prevailed 1-0 to close out the group stage of its campaign and advance to the round of 32, a result that surely pleased the Spanish monarch, King Felipe VI, seated in the front row of the honorary VIP box.
Early last week, fan zones and public spaces were chock-full of boisterous Colombian soccer fans, who had arrived to support their team as it took on the Republic of Congo in Guadalajara on June 23.
Colombians keep one eye on soccer scores and the other on presidential politics
But even as they cheered on their squad, Colombian visitors here last week had one eye on events back home. In one of Colombia’s most polarizing presidential elections in recent memory, the results were unexpected. Abelardo de la Espriella, a right-wing lawyer backed by Donald Trump, won the election by less than 1% of the vote.
While united in their support of the national team, Colombian visitors in Guadalajara were sharply divided on who should lead their country — and were not shy about sharing their thoughts as World Cup celebrations carried on around them. To supporters like José Vaquero, a businessman from Bogotá, De la Espriella’s victory represents a respite amid a crisis that in his view is suffocating Colombia.
“I see a very positive outlook, with a lot of activity, especially in the oil and corporate sectors. We lead an important business community in Bogotá … and we hope that everything will turn out well,” he said, per Milenio.
On the other side of the political spectrum are Colombians like Genaro Ruiz, who noted of the newly elected leader: “He does not have firsthand knowledge of the problems facing our country, considering that he lives between the United States and Italy. Colombia is facing a very difficult situation in education and health, and I believe that these are the issues he should be focusing on.”
Plácido Domingo delights fans in a sold-out concert in Zapopan
It was a week for star-studded events and visiting dignitaries. Capping Jalisco’s cultural program for the 2026 World Cup, the legendary Spanish tenor Plácido Domingo performed at a sold-out gala last Thursday evening in the performance hall bearing his name at the Santander Performing Arts Center.
It was a special return to the city where Domingo made his stage debut back in 1958. The production, billed as a “Concert for Three Voices,” was designed to showcase the historical, artistic and musical ties shared by Mexico and Spain.
The concert brought together more than 150 artists and combined two musical traditions with deep historical roots: Spanish zarzuela and Jalisco mariachi. The evening unfolded as a round trip between Spain and Mexico, with Plácido Domingo as the central figure, complemented by extensive participation from various soloists, orchestras and choirs.
The concert reached its emotional peak with the mariachi finale. Dressed as a charro and accompanied by the Mariachi Femenil Nuevo Tecalitlán, Domingo closed with a resounding rendition of “El Rey,” which brought the audience to its feet for a long ovation, as if welcoming back one of their own.
A journey through 20th-century Mexican art in Museo Cabañas exhibition
An exceptional collection of modern Mexican art is now on display at the Museo Cabañas in downtown Guadalajara. Titled “Journeys Through Mexico: Territories and Roots,” it’s being presented in collaboration with the National Bank of Mexico.
Curated by Carlos Segoviano, the exhibit showcases the bank’s historically significant collection of Mexican art, bringing together 55 works by 43 iconic artists, including Frida Kahlo, Diego Rivera, David Alfaro Siqueiros, Rufino Tamayo and Miguel Covarrubias.
Before the recent Museo Cabañas exhibition, Frida Kahlo’s “Fruits of the Earth” had never been shown in Guadalajara. (Frida Kahlo)
It marks the first time that Frida Kahlo’s vibrant and poignant “Fruits of the Earth” is on display in Guadalajara. Also on display is Diego Rivera’s masterpiece “The Flower Vendor (Girl with Lilies).” The visually striking portrayal of an Indigenous girl gathering calla lilies showcases Rivera’s distinct stylized naturalism, while conveying a deeper commentary about the struggles of Mexico’s Indigenous people.
Dates: April 28 to July 19. The museum is open Tuesday to Sunday, 10 a.m. to 5 p.m.
Location: Cabañas Museum, Cabañas 8, Plaza Tapatía, Guadalajara
Cost: 160 pesos for general admission, with reduced prices for children, residents, students and teachers.The exhibit is free on Tuesdays.
MND Writer Dawn Stoner is reporting from Guadalajara.
