Mexico produces avocados in 29 out of the 32 federal states across the country. (Unsplash)
Mexican avocado exports have rebounded strongly in 2026, cementing the Mexican fruit as a cornerstone of the country’s agricultural exports and strengthening Mexico’s status as the world’s leading supplier of avocados.
According to recent data from the Agriculture and Rural Development Ministry (Sader), shipments to the United States grew by approximately 35% during the first three months of the year (Q1), rising from around 370,000 to over 501,000 tonnes.
In March alone, Mexico sent 148,511 tonnes of avocados to the U.S., up 57% compared to the same period last year.
According to Sader, these results reflect the dynamism of the U.S. market and “the competitiveness of the avocado supply chain, driven primarily by the effort and commitment of producers, packers, exporters and authorities to ensure compliance with the highest standards of quality, plant health and food safety demanded by international markets.”
The increased demand positioned Mexican avocados as the country’s second-largest agri-food product exported to the U.S. last year, just behind beer, with a value exceeding US $3.6 billion and accounting for 8.1% of Mexican agri-food exports to that market.
Sader noted that this surge has fueled the economic development of Mexico’s primary avocado producers, spearheaded by Michoacán, Jalisco, México state and Nayarit.
The growing preference among U.S. consumers for “superfoods,” combined with the popularization of avocados in everyday dishes, has strengthened the bilateral agricultural trade relationship.
The surge is also attributed to seasonal demand linked to major sporting events, particularly the Super Bowl, during which avocado consumption skyrockets each year.
As things stand, Mexico only produces a small amount of oil and gas through fracking, a practice that was largely paused by the government of former president Andrés Manuel López Obrador. (Shutterstock)
Pilot fracking projects could begin in northern Mexico as soon as next month, according to a person with knowledge of government discussions who spoke to the Reuters news agency.
Citing four unnamed sources said to be “familiar” with government discussions, Reuters reported on Wednesday that President Claudia Sheinbaum is evaluating potential pilot fracking projects in the northern border states of Coahuila and Tamaulipas.
If approved, Reuters reported, Pemex, Mexico’s state oil company, “could begin work on the first pilot projects as early as September, one of the three sources said.”
The president has acknowledged her previous opposition to fracking, but now asserts that it can take place safely and without excessive water use via the employment of new technologies.
She said earlier this year that experts were assessing whether it was “feasible” to carry out fracking with recycled water and “other chemicals” and “other ways that don’t have the environmental impacts that hydraulic fracturing has today.”
The commencement of large-scale fracking in Mexico could help the country boost domestic production of natural gas and thus reduce its reliance on imports from the United States. As things stand, Mexico only produces a small amount of oil and gas through fracking, a practice that was largely paused by the government of former president Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
Reuters: Sheinbaum has received the findings of the expert panel
On July 28, Sheinbaum told reporters that the group of scientists tasked with assessing the feasibility of sustainable fracking had been expanded in order to take into account “additional points of view.” Consequently, the president said that the group’s ability to come to one of her morning press conferences to provide “a result” of its evaluation had been “slightly delayed.”
However, Reuters, citing three of its sources, reported that the president received “the findings of a panel of specialists in geology, water, engineering and environmental issues” a few weeks ago.
The news agency noted that neither Sheinbaum’s office nor Pemex responded to its requests for comment about the government’s fracking plans.
Sheinbaum indicated last week that an announcement on the expert group’s “guidance” regarding the feasibility of sustainable fracking in Mexico would be made soon. She said she believed that the committee’s conclusions will be “satisfactory for everyone,” although a decision in favor of fracking — as appears likely — will no doubt trigger criticism from environmental groups and others.
Challenges to fracking in Coahuila and Tamaulipas
Undertaking pilot fracking projects in Coahuila and Tamaulipas, as well as larger-scale projects in the northern states in the future, will not necessarily be straightforward.
“Each potential development area presents distinct challenges: Coahuila is governed by the opposition, Tamaulipas faces security risks linked to organized crime, and water scarcity remains a concern in parts of the resource-rich Tampico-Misantla basin,” Reuters reported.
The news agency also said: “Intensive unconventional development would require hundreds of wells and continuous operations, making any interruption costly; such wells typically decline rapidly and require constant investment to sustain production.”
The Tampico-Misantla basin — which has Mexico’s largest fracking potential — is mostly located in Veracruz, the Gulf coast state that borders Tamaulipas to the south. However, citing its sources, Reuters said that “the government is studying an area near the U.S. border in Coahuila within the Burro-Picachos platform.”
That part of Coahuila borders the Eagle Ford formation in Texas, which in June alone “produced 4.3 billion cubic feet of gas per day, a volume roughly equivalent to all of Pemex’s gas production nationwide,” according to Reuters.
Citing Pemex data, Reuters reported that the state oil company — ahead of the possible commencement of pilot fracking projects in northern Mexico — has drilled 25 exploratory wells in the Sabinas-Burro Picachos, Burgos and Tampico-Misantla basins, which span Coahuila, Tamaulipas and Veracruz. The news agency also said that Pemex has used fracking in the Chicontepec project, which spans Veracruz, Puebla and Hidalgo.
The state-owned company anticipates that unconventional oil and gas fields will make a “modest” contribution to overall production between 2026 and 2028, with “significant volumes” forecast from 2029.
Pemex’s 2025-35 strategic plan “projects cumulative production through 2030 of 197 million barrels of crude oil and 303 billion cubic feet of gas,” Reuters reported.
No alternative to fracking?
The numerous concerns about hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, are well known. Among those concerns are ones about groundwater contamination, methane emissions, earthquakes and impact on water supply. In addition, the commencement of large-scale fracking in Mexico could delay the transition to renewable energy, although the federal government — led by a climate scientist — is implementing an ambitious renewable energy plan.
Despite the concerns about fracking, one of Reuters sources said there was no alternative for Mexico if the country wanted to boost oil and gas production. Another source described Mexico’s current dependence on gas imports from the United States as “alarming.”
Sheinbaum said in February that Mexico imports from the United States around 75% of the natural gas it uses.
China and the U.S. are both valued trade partners in Mexico, but Mexicans views the former more favorably than the latter, a new study shows. (Paullawat/Shutterstock)
The Pew Research Center report covered this week contains a figure worth sitting with: 59% of Mexican adults hold a favorable view of China, compared with 40% who say the same of the United States.
You don’t need a survey to sense it. Until a few years ago, “Chinese product” meant cheap, badly made and disposable. Today, my nephews shop on Temu and Shein without it occurring to them that anything needs explaining. My best friend is pricing a BYD truck that costs nearly a million pesos. My parents — who are enthusiasts of nothing — built a comparison table pitting a Chinese car against a Jeep at the same price and concluded that the Chinese option offered more technology, better finishes and a vehicle that looks a class above for less money. They built that table themselves. Nobody talked them into it.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet in Washington, D.C. In Mexico, China is now viewed more favorably than the U.S. (White House)
The Mexican state, meanwhile, is moving in the opposite direction: since January, it has applied tariffs of up to 50% on imports from countries without a trade agreement, China among them.
Both things are true at once, and that simultaneity is the subject of this column.
The dissonance
The numbers reported by Pew describe a public tilted toward China on nearly every measure: reliability as a partner, contribution to global peace and respect for personal freedoms.
On the state’s side, policy answers to a different logic. The decree that took effect Jan. 1 — rates of 5% to 50% across 1,463 tariff lines, with automobiles and steel in the highest bracket — forms part of Plan México, the development strategy the president introduced in January 2025. Its targets include raising domestic content in electronics, auto parts and batteries, and bringing Mexican-made supply to 50% in sectors such as textiles, footwear, furniture and toys. The Economy Ministry framed the tariff measure as a defense of some 350,000 jobs in sensitive sectors, and the president has consistently maintained that it targets no country in particular.
None of this resolves the underlying asymmetry. Roughly 80% of everything Mexico exports goes to the United States. At the same time, China is Mexico’s second-largest supplier, accounting for close to one-fifth of imports. Mexico sells to one and buys from the other, and in that arithmetic the margin is narrow: you can make what you buy more expensive, but you cannot replace the country that buys from you.
What the survey actually measures
Pew flags it in the report itself: Mexicans had already viewed China more favorably than the United States in several earlier Center surveys. This is not a 2026 discovery. It is a recurring pattern.
Mexican opinions of China are formed not through news stories, but through the wide range of Chinese products available in the country. (BYD)
The historical series confirms it. Since Pew began asking in Mexico in 2007, favorability toward China has climbed slowly and without drama: 43% that year, 38% in 2008, 50% in 2019, 57% in 2023 and 59% today. Twenty-one points across 18 years, with no visible campaign to explain it. Favorability toward the United States, by contrast, moves like a seismograph: 63% in 2014, 29% last year and 40% this year.
That last stretch deserves emphasis, because the headline obscures it: favorability toward the United States rose 11 points in a single year. The number now being read as a collapse is, in fact, a recovery underway. China gained no ground this year; the United States recovered part of what it had lost.
The China that goes unpublished
There is, however, one figure that volatility in U.S. ratings does not explain, and it is arguably the most revealing of all.
Mexicans are now more likely to say the Chinese government respects its people’s personal freedoms (35%) than to say the same of the U.S. government (20%). Of the six Latin American countries Pew surveyed, Mexico is the only one where that comparison inverts: in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru, the reverse holds. Across all 36 countries, the median share crediting the Chinese government with respecting personal freedoms is 26%.
More telling still: that Mexican 35% has barely moved in 18 years — 33% in 2008, 31% in 2017, 30% in 2018 and 35% today. One-third of Mexicans have held the same view of personal freedom in China across three presidential administrations, a pandemic and a trade war. A number that does not respond to events is probably not based on information.
Which brings us to something elementary that conversations about polling tend to skip: international perceptions almost never come from direct experience. They come from exposure. We form opinions about the countries that appear before us, at the frequency they appear and in the place they appear. Since the 1970s, agenda-setting research — McCombs and Shaw — has held that the press shapes less what we think than the inventory of subjects we end up having opinions about.
China in the Mexican press compared to the US
The U.S. remains Mexico’s largest trade partner, despite President Trump’s refusal thus far to renew the USMCA agreement. (Presidencia)
Applied to Mexico, the result is predictable. China barely appears in the Mexican press. When it does, it appears in the international section: the one fewest readers open, the first to be cut when cuts are needed and the one that rarely sets the day’s conversation. Very little of what Mexicans believe they know about China reaches them through Mexican reporting.
That does not mean China fails to reach Mexico. It reaches through the phone: TikTok, Shein, Temu; and through the Periférico, in the BYDs, Chireys and MGs that in five years went from under 1% of sales to displacing Germany as the third-largest origin of brands sold in the country. China reaches through the Centro Histórico, in full containers of merchandise that over two decades built fortunes both modest and less so. It reaches, in short, through consumption: affordable, efficient and surprisingly good for the price.
The United States, by contrast, is not a section. It is the front page — not by editorial choice but by arithmetic. When four of every five dollars Mexico exports cross a single border, any decision taken in Washington stops being foreign news and becomes domestic economic news. A tariff is employment in Coahuila. A treaty review is the exchange rate. A migration policy is a relative waiting on a consular appointment.
Add to that something with no counterpart on the other side: in American political speech, Mexico gets named — frequently and explicitly. In late July, at an event at a General Motors proving ground in Michigan, the U.S. president celebrated Toyota’s decision to shift Tacoma production from its Baja California plant to San Antonio and touted that his tariff policy had left the United States without a single Chinese car. That speech, delivered to plant workers in the Midwest, appeared in Mexican newspapers the following morning.
So the comparison the survey proposes is skewed from the start. This is not a comparison of two countries; it is a comparison of a commercial presence and a media presence. From China come products. From the United States comes news — and that news is almost always decisions made there and felt here.
China does not appear on Mexico’s list of grievances because it does not appear on its list of subjects.
Among Mexicans under 35, 70% view China favorably. Among those 50 and older, 44% — a gap of 26 points. Ideology does not explain it: in Mexico this year, views of both powers do not differ significantly between left and right. This is not a political position. It is a generational experience.
It is also, predictably, an experience shaped by media consumption. That generation does not form its view of China in the international section of a newspaper it does not read. It forms that view on a phone screen, where China is not a state but an interface: fast, cheap and available. It grew up with those goods, considers them normal and in many cases prefers them. Twenty years from now, it will be negotiating treaties, running ministries and writing Mexican foreign policy.
None of this will move geography. Mexico will continue sharing more than 3,000 kilometers of border with the United States and will continue selling it four of every five export dollars. But the disposition with which that interdependence is managed does change. And it is forming now — in a Temu app open around the clock and in a comparison table my parents built without anyone asking them to.
Maria Meléndez writes for Mexico News Daily in Mexico City.
There has been plenty of news this summer in San Miguel de Allende, from traffic petitions to notable business openings and closures. (Chris Luengas/Unsplash)
A new Home Depot, traffic chaos and the loss of another local dining icon are all in the news this week as we take a look at the San Miguel de Allende stories that matter to you.
Home Depot opening new stores in Guanajuato
The Georgia-based home improvement chain is investing US $21 million in the project in San Miguel and changed the design to comply with local requirements. The company also reportedly agreed to replace mesquite trees removed at the construction site behind MAC Hospital and include public space renovations.
Construction has begun on the Home Depot store behind the MAC Hospital. (Shutterstock)
In addition to San Miguel de Allende, Home Depot plans stores in León and Guanajuato as part of a total US $1.3 billion investment the company is making in Mexico through 2030. It employs more than 18,000 people working at 140 stores in at least 100 Mexican cities.
San Miguel already has numerous hardware and home supply stores, including several Grupo Ferretero Don Pedro outlets. The main store is at Carretera San Miguel a Celaya Km. 2.4, with others at Avenida Independencia 4 in San Rafael and Calzada de la Aurora 20 in Guadalupe.
At least five deaths and other accidents along a stretch of Federal Highway 51 southwest of San Miguel have led to area residents submitting a formal request for improvements to the State of Guanajuato Public Works Department.
They say thousands of residents and others use that stretch of road and have to deal with a dangerous intersection and U-turn given the traffic patterns and increasing number of vehicles.
The residents and users of the El Malanquín, Antigua, La Cañada, Los Huizaches, El Mirador, Villa de los Frailes and La Serena subdivisions are asking for evaluation and installation of a traffic light, a pedestrian crossing and comprehensive road safety measures.
“Our request is purely preventative,” their website says. “We are not waiting for more accidents to happen before taking action; on the contrary, we request that timely measures be implemented to protect the lives of residents, visitors, and users of this important roadway.”
Residents had scheduled a meeting July 29 with state and city representatives to discuss the situation. A petition with more information is posted here.
Another long-time Centro restaurant closes its doors
A dining fixture for over three decades, Café de la Parroquia at Jesús 11 in El Centro has officially closed. (Café de la Parroquia)
The Café de la Parroquia at Jesús 11 in Centro ceased doing business on July 19 after 37 years of serving Mexican-style meals made to order.
The family-run cafe, founded in 1989, was known for good food at reasonable prices and was one of the few such places within a block or so of the main square.The owners will reportedly sell the building that houses the cafe.
“Since 1989, we have had the privilege of being part of the life of San Miguel de Allende and of welcoming people from all over the world,” they said. “What began as a restaurant has become, thanks to you, a place full of memories, smiles and moments that will last forever.”
Cathy Siegner is an independent journalist based in San Miguel de Allende and Montana. She has journalism degrees from the University of Oregon and Northwestern University.
President Sheinbaum scrolls through her recent X, Instagram and TikTok posts to check reactions to her warning against social media. (This image was generated using AI tools).
MEXICO CITY — Federal officials launched a nationwide public awareness campaign warning citizens about the psychological hazards of digital platforms, delivering the message directly to millions of citizens across X, TikTok, Instagram and a three-hour daily YouTube broadcast.
Speaking during her daily morning press conference — streamed live in 4K resolution across nine official government channels, plus her personal Instagram account with 3.4 million followers — President Claudia Sheinbaum announced that the administration will hold a series of regional forums designed to combat screen addiction. The announcement was immediately clipped into a 15-second vertical video featuring dynamic captions and trending background music to maximize engagement on short-form video platforms.
The president noted in several recent posts that social media can be addictive for children. (Shutterstock)
“We must confront the reality of algorithmic capture,” Sheinbaum said into a high-definition microphone as an aide monitored real-time viewer engagement, chat sentiment and viewer retention metrics in the studio wing. “Our young people are trapped in infinite scrolling loops. To fix this, we are launching an intensive digital campaign asking everyone to immediately put down their devices.”
Education Minister Mario Delgado emphasized that government data shows over 90% of Mexican adolescents rely heavily on digital devices, a habit he warned damages attention spans. To ensure the message reaches affected youth, the Ministry of Education has scheduled a series of high-production livestreams, interactive polls and downloadable infographic carousels explaining the neurological dangers of excessive notifications.
Officials confirmed that citizens wishing to register for the upcoming regional forums in Nuevo León, Chiapas and Guerrero must do so by creating a profile on a newly launched government web portal, downloading a verification app and scanning a QR code sent to their mobile devices.
To further encourage screen-free engagement, the Ministry of Public Education announced a parallel initiative promoting traditional offline activities. Details of the national board game and outdoor play campaign will be released next week via an exclusive interactive webinar, accompanied by a downloadable PDF guide and a custom hashtag for parents to share photos of their un-plugged children on Instagram.
At press time, the presidential press conference’s official YouTube stream had amassed 450,000 live views, while the administration’s warning about short-form video addiction had reached 1.2 million plays on TikTok.
Sheinbaum also shared on Wednesday that she is working hard to bring the pope to Mexico. (Juan Carlos Ramos Mamahua/Presidencia)
Sheinbaum’s mañanera in 60 seconds
🔫 Sheinbaum acknowledges murder of influencer in Culiacán: Asked about the Tuesday night murder of content creator César Gastélum, who was shot while broadcasting live outside a KFC restaurant in Culiacán, Sheinbaum said the case was discussed at Wednesday’s federal security cabinet meeting, with authorities working to detain the perpetrators and determine a motive.
✝️ Sheinbaum to “insist” on papal visit: Asked whether she’d renew an invitation for Pope Leo XIV to visit Mexico ahead of his November Latin America trip, Sheinbaum noted that her government already sent a written invitation and reminded reporters that she spoke with the pontiff by phone last December. With Vatican Secretary of State Pietro Parolin visiting Mexico this week, she said, “We’re going to insist on the visit of the pope to Mexico.”
🚫 Sheinbaum says federal government isn’t threatening Chihuahua governor: Responding to Chihuahua Governor Maru Campos’ claim that she’d been threatened in official letters over the CIA’s alleged role in an April drug lab raid, Sheinbaum said she hadn’t spoken to Campos and rejected the accusation: “We don’t make any threats,” she said.
Also of note at today’s mañanera were Sheinbaum’s remarks about a possible papal visit to Mexico and her rejection of a serious accusation against the federal government made by the governor of the northern border state of Chihuahua.
Violence, Catholicism and political polarization — all prominent dynamics in modern-day Mexico — converged on Wednesday morning, giving added weight to the president’s press conference.
Sheinbaum acknowledges murder of influencer in Culiacán
A reporter asked the president about the murder on Tuesday night of content creator César Gastélum, who was shot and killed while broadcasting live outside a KFC restaurant in Culiacán.
Sheinbaum said that the murder was discussed at the federal security cabinet’s regular meeting on Wednesday morning. She said that authorities are investigating with the aim of detaining the perpetrators of the murder and determining the motive for the crime.
“Obviously the perpetrators and the mastermind [of the crime] have to be detained,” Sheinbaum said.
Gastélum, whose age has not been disclosed, has over 500,000 followers on TikTok and gained popularity for his lifestyle, restaurant and travel content, as well as his comedy sketches of the fictional personas “Profe Alducin” and “el Padre.”
Sheinbaum to ‘insist’ that Pope Leo XIV visit Mexico
Sheinbaum noted that her government already extended a written invitation to the pope and reminded reporters that she had the opportunity to speak to the pontiff by telephone last December.
“Now that we’re receiving this very important visit [from Pietro Parolin] we’re going to insist on the visit of the pope to Mexico,” she said.
Sheinbaum said that a papal visit to Mexico would be significant for the Catholic people of Mexico, and told reporters that Pope Leo has become a “global reference” in the debate about the harms and potential harms of social media and artificial intelligence.
In a recent video message, the pope urged young people to “use social media and artificial intelligence well, employing these tools with moderation and discipline because they can draw us into an unreal world where what is fleeting, mere appearances, and deception end up replacing true values and what truly matters.”
On Tuesday, Campos — who represents the opposition National Action Party (PAN) — also said she was certain that she would be pursued by the Federal Attorney General’s Office (FGR) over the CIA’s alleged participation in a drug lab raid in Chihuahua in April without the knowledge or authorization of the federal government.
PAN governor Maru Campos is now accusing Sheinbaum’s administration of threatening her via letters. (Maru Campos/Facebook)
In late April, a Morena party senator accused the governor of treason due to her government’s alleged approval of the participation of the CIA in the drug lab raid. Campos has asserted that she didn’t authorize any such participation or have knowledge of the presence of “foreign people” in the state she leads.
On Wednesday morning, Sheinbaum told reporters that she hadn’t spoken to the Chihuahua governor. She subsequently rejected Campos’ claim that she has been threatened by the federal government.
“We don’t make any threats,” Sheinbaum said.
“I don’t know what she’s referring to,” she said, adding that if the governor thinks she is being threatened, she should file a complaint.
“There is nothing against the governor,” Sheinbaum said.
“There was an investigative file that was opened due to the presence of CIA people in Chihuahua, doing operations,” she said.
“And this FGR file remains open. But it has nothing to do with a political issue. It has to do with a matter of violation of the National Security Law,” Sheinbaum said.
Welcome to the fourth edition of the MND Sheinbaum Index™, an eight-pillar index designed to give our readers balanced, data-driven insight into the current situation in Mexico across a range of areas under the leadership of President Claudia Sheinbaum.
In this edition of the index — which mainly uses data from the month of June — the headline number is 67.5, representing an improvement of 2.7 points compared to the previous score. This is the highest MND Sheinbaum Index™ to date. A detailed summary of the latest results appears below.
(Mexico News Daily)
The MND Sheinbaum Index™ score has now improved in two consecutive months, increasing by 7.5 points in the period. An analysis of the index trend in the first half of 2026 also appears below.
Before we look in detail at the latest results and examine the index trend in the first half of 2026, here is a short guide to the significance of a Sheinbaum Index score:
85–100: Exceptional — administration performing at a high level across nearly all indicators.
75–84: Excellent — administration performing well across most indicators.
60–75: Quite good, but room for improvement — meaningful strengths, some areas of concern.
50–60: Mixed — passing marks overall.
Below 50: Broad underperformance — more indicators below benchmark than above.
The MND Sheinbaum Index™ trend between February and June
We saw the MND Sheinbaum Index™ score fall and rise in the period between February and June.
(Mexico News Daily)
Factors such as inflation of around 4.5% in each of March and April, as well as annual economic growth of 0.5% or lower in those months, caused the index score to deteriorate to 60 from 64.8 in February, when inflation was very close to 4% and economic growth was above 1%.
The 4.8-point month-over-month improvement in the index score in May was mainly due to inflation falling compared to April, homicides declining at a faster annual pace and economic growth improving. We saw all those things happen again in June, compared to May, resulting in an additional 2.7-point month-over-month improvement in the index score.
MND Sheinbaum Index™ pillars for June 2026
Each pillar is given a stoplight color indicating a strong performance (green), an average performance (yellow) or a poor performance (red). An upward-pointing arrow ⬆️ indicates that the pillar score improved compared to May. A downward-pointing arrow ⬇️ indicates a deterioration in the pillar score. A pause icon ⏸️ means there was no change in the pillar score compared to the previous month.
As you’ll see below, scores for three of the eight pillars improved in June compared to May. The scores for three others declined, while the scores for two pillars were unchanged.
Collectively, the improvements in the inflation, security and economic growth pillars were more significant than the deteriorations in the approval rating, tourism and employment pillars. Thus, the MND Sheinbaum Index™ score was able to increase 2.7 points compared to May to settle at 67.5.
(Mexico News Daily)
🟢 ⬆️ INFLATION (11.58 out of 12.5)
In June, the inflation pillar was the top contributor to the overall index score for a second consecutive month.
Mexico’s annual headline inflation rate declined from 3.94% in May to 3.37% in June, the lowest rate for any month since December 2020 and just 0.37 percentage points above the Bank of Mexico’s 3% target.
The inflation pillar score consequently rose to 11.58 from 10.15 in May — a gain of 1.43 points.
🟢 ⏸️ LABOR POVERTY (10.10 out of 12.5)
The labor poverty pillar score was unchanged from May at 10.10. The labor poverty rate decreased 3.2 percentage points annually to 30.7% in the first quarter of 2026 — the same reading as May, as this pillar runs on a quarterly lag. Real incomes increased 7.4% year-over-year, also unchanged from last month.
For a second consecutive month, this pillar was the second biggest contributor to the overall index score.
🟢 ⬆️ SECURITY (9.44 out of 12.5)
The pace of homicide reduction accelerated in June for a second consecutive month. The year-over-year decline in homicides was 32.5% in June, per data presented at Sheinbaum’s July 14 press conference, up from 27.6% in May.
The security pillar score consequently rose from 8.58 in May to 9.44 in June. As a result of the increase, the security pillar moved into green light territory.
🟡 ⬇️ APPROVAL RATING (8.5 out of 12.5)
Sheinbaum’s average approval rating fell slightly to 68% in June from 68.5% in May. Thus, the approval rating pillar score declined from 8.56 in May to 8.5 in June.
Per El Financiero’s June poll, Sheinbaum’s approval rating was 68%, a decline of one point compared to May. As there was no new Enkoll/El País/W Radio poll on Sheinbaum in June, we carried over the poll’s approval rating from May, which was 68%.
🟡 ⬇️ TOURISM (7.91 out of 12.5 — This pillar has a one-month lag)
International arrivals increased 5.3% year-over-year in May, the data period used for June’s index. That represents a slowdown from the 8.1% rise recorded in April, pulling the tourism pillar score down from 8.78 in May to 7.91 in June.
🟡 ⬇️ EMPLOYMENT (6.88 out of 12.5)
Mexico’s unemployment rate was 2.9% in June, up 0.1 percentage points from May. The rate remained below the 3% neutral benchmark, but the slight increase compared to May resulted in a slightly lower score for this component of the employment pillar.
The informality rate increased 0.2 percentage points year-over-year in June, an improvement on the 0.3-point rise recorded in May.
The improvement in the informality component score was just outweighed by the deterioration in the unemployment component score, resulting in a slight decline in the pillar score from 7 in May to 6.88 in June.
While unemployment in Mexico is quite low, the percentage of workers employed in the informal economy is very high, at 55% in June.
The economic growth pillar score thus rose from 5.25 in May to 6.75 in June. The improvement allowed the pillar to move into yellow light territory from red light designations in each of the first three Sheinbaum indexes we published. Of the four indexes to date, this one is the first in which the economic growth pillar is not the worst performing pillar.
The improved annual growth rate in June has been attributed, in part, to an increase in consumer spending related to the FIFA men’s World Cup, which Mexico co-hosted with the United States and Canada. INEGI’s preliminary economic growth data is often revised upward, meaning that the annual expansion in June may turn out to be higher than 1.7%.
🟡 ⏸️ BUSINESS CONFIDENCE (6.36 out of 12.50)
Mexico’s business confidence score, as measured by a monthly INEGI survey, was 48.2 in June, unchanged from April. That score is below the neutral benchmark of 50. In late 2024, when Sheinbaum was at the start of her six-year term, the business confidence score was around 52.
In June, the score for the foreign direct investment component of the pillar also remained unchanged as the latest available data was once again the Q1 2026 FDI growth figure reported by the federal Economy Ministry in late May. Annual FDI growth in the first quarter was 10.4%.
With no movement in either component, the business confidence pillar score was unchanged at 6.36.
What to watch
The next MND Sheinbaum Index™ will focus on the month of July.
Here are three things to look out for in the July Index, which we will publish in early September.
Inflation: Data for the first half of July indicates that the score for the inflation pillar will continue to improve. INEGI reported on July 23 that the annual headline rate was 3.10% in the first 15 days of July, the lowest for any half-month period since the second half of December 2020.
Tourism: The July index will include data on international arrivals in June, a month in which Mexico hosted 12 World Cup matches and welcomed visitors from around the world. It is thus likely that data will show that there was a significant annual increase in international arrivals in June. If that is the case, the tourism pillar score will increase, giving a boost to the overall index score.
Labor poverty: INEGI will publish second quarter data on labor poverty and real income growth in late August. That data will replace the first quarter data we used in this edition of the MND Sheinbaum Index™ and the two previous ones. Therefore, it is virtually certain that we will see a change in the labor poverty pillar score in the next index.
Mexico News Daily
* MND acknowledges that President Sheinbaum does not directly control outcomes in all eight pillars. For example, global commodity prices and tariff decisions in Washington can affect Mexico’s inflation and growth rates. The Index measures what is happening in Mexico on Sheinbaum’s watch.
Recent vaquita counts, including from a May scientific expedition with 10 young trainees on board, suggest approximately seven to 10 specimens remain. (Semarnat)
Mexico has until next Feb. 1 to convince UNESCO it is doing enough to protect the vaquita porpoise — the world’s most endangered marine mammal — and other Gulf of California species.
At its recently concluded annual meeting in Busan, South Korea, UNESCO’s World Heritage Committee set the 2027 deadline and asked Mexico to show “concrete actions” to shield the Gulf of California World Heritage site from liquefied natural gas projects such as Saguaro Energía LNG and AMIGO GNL.
The committee’s 48th session from July 19 to 29 came as global calls to save the vaquita intensified.
In fact, July 18 was International Save the Vaquita Day — which the Mexican government marked by touting new monitoring campaigns and a training program for community observers.
On that day, the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (Semarnat) highlighted a May cruise aboard Sea Shepherd’s vessel Seahorse on which eight young residents of San Felipe, Baja California, trained alongside professional scientists.
During 10 days at sea, the group used acoustic detectors, environmental DNA sampling and high-powered binoculars to collect data on vaquitas, who occupy a tiny pocket of the Upper Gulf sometimes called the “Aquarium of the World.”
Eight young residents of San Felipe, Baja California, recently received training to become citizen observers of the vaquita. (Semarnat)
With only a handful of vaquitas worldwide — all of them in that small region — the species is listed as critically endangered on the IUCN Red List. The world’s smallest cetacean (a family that also includes whales and dolphins) is considered in immediate danger of extinction.
Despite rough weather, observers recorded three sightings northwest of the zone and in an adjacent extension area, confirming that some vaquitas are using habitat outside the core refuge.
The primary threat to the vaquita is being accidentally caught in illegal gillnets set by poachers trying to catch the totoaba fish, whose swim bladders are trafficked to Asian markets, especially China, for high‑priced use in traditional medicine and luxury tonics.
Vaquitas are also killed in wide-cast nets set legally and illegally for species such as shrimp and various fish, or in “ghost nets” set by illegal fishers as decoys to fool patrols.
Additionally, vaquitas, whales and other marine life face pressure from proposed liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants in and around the Gulf of California, especially the mega-ships used to transport the gas.
It’s in light of those risks that UNESCO is asking Mexico to submit the detailed report on LNG plants and other infrastructure projects that could affect the area’s universal value.
Mexico received US $30.76 billion in remittances between January and June, the second highest on record for the first six months of a year. (Unsplash)
Remittances to Mexico increased 3.1% annually in the first six months of 2026, the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) reported Monday, rebounding from a 4.6% decline in 2025.
Banxico’s data shows that Mexico received US $30.76 billion in remittances between January and June, up from $29.84 billion in the same period of last year.
Banxico also reported on Monday that remittances to Mexico increased 4.2% annually in June to reach $5.47 billion, the second highest monthly total this year after May. It was the second consecutive month that incoming remittances — most of which are transferred by Mexicans living and working in the United States — exceeded $5 billion.
Despite the annual increase in remittances in June, the millions of Mexican families who receive such transfers didn’t collectively get more money in pesos.
“Considering the exchange rate and inflation, remittance-receiving households in Mexico received 8.3% fewer resources in real terms in June than the previous year,” according to BBVA Research.
The USD:MXN exchange rate was 17.49 at the end of June, whereas a year earlier it was 18.76. Thus the peso appreciated 6.8% against the greenback in the 12 months to June 30.
The decline in remittances in 2025 — the first drop in 12 years — was partially attributed to fear of going out to work among U.S.-based Mexicans as the Trump administration carried out an aggressive deportation agenda. Ironically, the increase this year could be linked to fear of deportation, according to Jesús González Cervantes, director of the remittances forum at the Mexico City-based Center for Latin American Monetary Studies.
“We can’t rule out that the fear of being reported could also be fostering a positive effect in the sending of remittances to Mexico by undocumented Mexicans in the United States,” González said.
The average remittance to Mexico between January and June was $405
Banxico reported that 75.97 million individual remittances were sent to Mexico between January and June, a decrease of 1.8% compared to the first six months of 2025. During the period, the average remittance was $405, an annual increase of 5%. That amount was the highest average remittance in the January-June period for at least a decade, according to the newspaper El Economista.
In June, 12.97 million individual remittances were sent to Mexico, an annual increase of 0.4%. On average, each remittance was $422, a 3.8% year-over-year increase and the highest amount for any month on record.
Outgoing remittances increased 6.7% between January and June
Banxico reported that $627 million was sent out of Mexico in remittances between January and June, a 6.7% increase compared to the same period of 2025.
The average outgoing remittance in the period was $414, an annual increase of 3.4%.
President Sheinbaum celebrates with health officials after she laid the cornerstone for a new IMSS hospital building that will join two others in a new Health City serving Oaxaca. (Hazel Cárdenas/Presidencia)
President Sheinbaum laid the cornerstone at the inaugural ceremony on Sunday of a new IMSS general hospital in the Oaxaca municipality of San Lorenzo Cacaotepec, part of a three-facility complex that the administration sees as a key step forward in its plan for a Universal Health Service (SUS) in Mexico.
In addition to the IMSS (Mexican Social Security Institute) hospital, an ISSSTE (Institute for Social Security and Services for State Workers) hospital is under construction on the same site, and there are plans for an IMSS-Bienestar (IMSS-Welfare) facility.
IMSS Director General Zoé Robledo said that the new Oaxaca hospital will serve almost 1 million beneficiaries and employ 2,826 staff. (Hazel Cárdenas/Presidencia)
The new complex, located just 15 kilometers outside of the city of Oaxaca, is known as Ñuu Tata in the local Mixtec language, Ciudad de la Salud in Spanish and Health City in English.
“It will be an example not only for Oaxaca, but for the entire world, because it will have the most modern services available… giving the people of Oaxaca the true right to health,” said Sheinbaum.
Injecting some politics into the occasion, the president said that before her party came to power in 2018, health care was seen as a profit-making enterprise, rather than the universal right that it is considered to be now. The president claimed that during the previous 36-year neoliberal period in Mexico, only 4,000 hospital beds were added, while during her six-year term she aims to add 9,000.
Enrollment in Mexico’s SUS system started in April, and 2 million senior citizens have already enrolled, according to Sheinbaum. “Our vision is for these three [Health City] institutions to form part of . . . the Universal Health Service in Mexico,” she said.
Sheinbaum’s government plans to provide free medications at the three institutions, as well as invest in improving and expanding primary healthcare countrywide.
IMSS Director General Zoé Robledo said that the new Oaxaca hospital will serve almost 1 million beneficiaries and employ 2,826 staff. It will have 530 beds — 260 for hospitalization and 270 for emergency care, 53 consulting rooms and will be equipped with adult, neonatal and pediatric intensive care units.
Meanwhile, ISSSTE Director Martí Batres said the government plans to invest 3.5 billion pesos (US $203 million) in the new general hospital, which began construction in August last year and is now 62% complete.
“We are going to finish this major project in record time,” said Batres.
The ISSSTE hospital will be equipped with 508 beds, a helipad, 43 consulting rooms, 11 operating rooms and will have 36 specialized medical services.
Investment in the three hospitals is expected to total 10 billion pesos (almost US $580 million).
