I’m often asked about the latest on tariffs or what’s going to happen next. Honestly? I don’t know. And if we’re all being honest: nobody knows — not even U.S. President Trump.
What we do have are some guardrails and foundations in U.S. policy that won’t change anytime soon. And those at least help us predict, in one way or another, the direction of economic and trade policy — and, more importantly, Mexico’s role in enabling the United States’ economic growth.
From where I stand, there are four big theoretical pillars shaping U.S. policy going forward.
First, the obvious one: the need to move away from China.
Twenty years ago, the U.S. share of global manufacturing value added was nearly triple China’s (26% vs. 9%). Fast forward to today, and China’s share is double that of the U.S. (31% vs. 15%). The global trading map flipped too: two decades ago, nearly 80% of the world traded more with the U.S. than with China. Today, 70% of the world trades more with China than with the U.S.! I won’t dig too deep into why this sets off every economic, political, and security alarm in Washington — I’ll let your imagination do the work.
Second, the re-industrialization of the American economy. This is a deep conversation about shifting the engine of growth from demand to supply — in other words, seeing Americans first as producers, not just consumers. For roughly four decades (think Reagan onward), success was measured by how much the average American could buy. That model required a trade-plus-geopolitics cocktail that pushed manufacturing to the cheapest locations possible while opening trade relationships around the globe. A.K.A. globalization.
The opportunity cost? Outsourced jobs, abandoned towns, and communities left behind — fertile ground for what economists politely call “deaths of despair.” Drugs of every kind filled the gap that good jobs used to occupy. And while buying a cheap T-shirt or a new refrigerator is nice, good jobs restore dignity, family stability and social fabric. Migration policy is part of this story too — but I’ll save that for another day.
Third, a shift toward fair trade rather than free trade.
Beyond the slogan, it means managed, controlled trade instead of an open-door model. The argument is straightforward: under the WTO framework, the U.S. has some of the lowest applied tariffs in the world — lower than Europe, Mexico, Canada, China, Brazil, you name it. Add to that the fact that the U.S. dollar can’t “adjust” trade deficits the way other currencies can, because it’s the world’s safe asset. In other words, classic trade theory simply doesn’t fit the United States. And when you throw in other countries’ industrial and tax policies — like VAT refunds for temporary imports — the feeling in Washington is that the playing field isn’t exactly level. Like it or not, the U.S. isn’t walking away from managed trade anytime soon.
Fourth and finally: national security. I won’t pretend to be a security expert (I know my limits), but everything above directly affects America’s ability to defend itself — from shipbuilding capacity, to critical minerals, to military readiness, to geopolitical leverage. It’s all connected.
So the next question becomes: What does the United States need to actually pull off these new policies — without collapsing under their weight?
The good news is that many of the answers lie with its closest allies and neighbors. Spoiler alert: Mexico plays a starring role.
I know most of us don’t have the time or attention span for long essays, so I’ll dive into Mexico’s opportunity in a separate text. For now, thanks for making it this far — see you soon.
Pedro Casas Alatriste is the Executive Vice President and CEO of the American Chamber of Commerce of Mexico (AmCham). Previously, he has been the Director of Research and Public Policy at the US-Mexico Foundation in Washington, D.C. and the Coordinator of International Affairs at the Business Coordinating Council (CCE). He has also served as a consultant to the Inter-American Development Bank.
