Mexico Pacific signs 20-year LNG deal with Chinese company

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July 7, 2023

A tanker ship — Mexico Pacific will ship liquefied natural gas from a planned processing facility — the not-yet-built Saguaro Energía plant — to China, currently experiencing a high demand for LNG. (Ray Harrington/Unsplash)

Houston-based company Mexico Pacific Limited (MPL) will sell 1 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) per year over a 20-year-period to Chinese company Zhejiang Energy, using a Mexican LNG production facility in Sonora under development by MPL.

MPL’s Saguaro Energía plant, to be located in Puerto Libertad, Sonora, will process natural gas bought from U.S. producers and exported to Mexico via existing cross-border pipelines before shipping it onward to Asia. MPL has said it will begin exporting gas in 2027.

A CGI-render of the Saguaro Energia facility in Sonora — A CGI rendering of the planned Saguaro Energia facility in Sonora. (Mexico Pacific Limited)

The Shell oil company is another prominent customer that plans to buy LNG processed at the Sonora plant. Shell and MPL signed their third 20-year LNG supply agreement in March.

Ivan Van der Walt, CEO of MPL, said that his company is “delighted” with the Zhejiang deal, adding that “LNG is an important pillar to China’s energy security needs and its underlying green policy ambitions.”

Xiqiang Chai, Deputy General Manager at Zhejiang Provincial Energy, agreed that the agreement is “an important step in further diversifying our energy supply portfolio and strengthening Zhejiang Energy’s natural gas industry.”

Zhejiang Provincial Energy Group is one of China’s government-backed city gas distributors, now competing on the global market. It owns a 51% stake in an LNG terminal in Wenzhou, on China’s eastern coast, and holds a 20-year supply agreement with Exxon Mobil.

Natural gas pipeline — AMLO has said that a new pipeline to be built by Mexico Pacific would funnel U.S LNG to Sonora for processing, but it is not yet clear if the pipeline is still in a planning phase or will even be built. Existing pipelines could do the job. (Depositphotos)

Chinese LNG importers have been racing to sign contracts with producers, including in Qatar and the U.S. in recent months, after LNG prices in Asia reached record highs.

MPL’s Saguaro Energía will have a production capacity of 14.1 million metric tons per year. It has access to the nearby Permian Basin, which straddles the U.S. states of Texas and New Mexico and contains more than 600 million cubic feet of natural gas resources.

The company boasts that the Saguaro plant offers “the lowest landed price of North American LNG into Asia,” and “a significantly shorter shipping route, avoiding Panama Canal transit risk for Asian markets.”

The construction of the plant was announced by President López Obrador last year, who said it represented a US $2.5 billion investment in Mexico. In May 2023, López Obrador said that MPL is now planning to invest US $14 billion in a natural gas pipeline and liquefaction plant in Sonora, although the details of this plan remain unclear and unconfirmed by MPL.

With reports from Reuters and Gas World

Annual inflation fell for 5th consecutive month in June

By

MND Staff

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July 7, 2023

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Pesos — Inflation rates are once again down, to 5.06%, say national statistics agency INEGI - slightly above consensus forecasts by Citibanamex. (pxfuel)

Mexico’s annual headline inflation rate slowed to 5.06% in June, its lowest level since March 2021, according to data from the national statistics agency INEGI.

The rate declined for a fifth consecutive month in June, and has now fallen 2.85 percentage points from the 7.91% reading in January. The annual rate in May was 5.84%.

Produce for sale in Tepoztlán, Morelos, 2015. — Headline inflation rate continues to drop for the fifth consecutive month, reaching the lowest rates since 2019. (thelastcarmusai/Wikimedia)

The 5.06% rate for June is slightly above a 5.04% consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by Citibanamex.

Despite the recent string of declines, headline inflation remains above the central bank’s target of 3%, with tolerance for one percentage point in either direction.

On a month-over-month basis, the National Consumer Price Index, which measures headline inflation, increased 0.10%, INEGI said.

The annual core inflation rate, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was 6.89% in June, down from 8.45% in January and 7.39% in May. It was the first time since March 2022 that core inflation was below 7%. On a month-over-month basis, the rate increased 0.30%.

Pantheon Macroeconomics Latin America chief Andres Abadia attributes the strong performance of the Mexican economy to low raw materials costs, the peso’s strong performance and the “delayed effect of tighter fiscal conditions.” (Globelynx)

Andrés Abadia, chief of Latin America at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said that “the delayed effect of tighter financial conditions, lower prices for raw materials and the impressive performance of the Mexican peso in recent months” all contributed to lower annual inflation in June.

The Bank of Mexico raised its benchmark interest rate to a record high of 11.25% in March, and left it at that level following monetary policy meetings in May and June. Meanwhile, the Mexican peso has appreciated significantly this year and reached its best position against the dollar in almost eight years on Wednesday before weakening slightly on Thursday.

The strength of the peso has boosted consumption of imported goods, the bank Banco Base said in a recent report, but inflation is still placing pressure on the budgets of millions of Mexicans.

INEGI data showed that prices for processed food, beverages and tobacco were 10.49% higher in June than a year earlier, while non-food goods were 5.7% more expensive and services were 5.25% dearer.

Meat prices increased by 2.05% on an annual basis — down from 5.9% in May — while fruit and vegetables were 3.98% more expensive, a slight increase compared to the previous month.

Energy prices, including those for gasoline and electricity, helped drive inflation down in June, falling 3.08% on an annual basis.

The strong peso has boosted Mexico’s consumption of imports, but it has done little to solve cost-of-living concerns for many Mexicans. (Pat Whelen/Unsplash)

Gabriela Siller, director of economic analysis at Banco Base, noted on Twitter that the annual inflation rate for processed food has been above 10% for 11 months. The 10.49% rate recorded in June is “one of the reasons why inflation in Mexico still feels very high,” she wrote.

The Bank of Mexico is currently forecasting that annual headline inflation will fall to 4.6% in the final quarter of 2023, and continue declining throughout next year to reach 3.1% in Q4 of 2024.

With reports from El Financiero and El Economista

El Refugio de Potosí, a hidden eco-reserve on the Guerrero coast

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Elisabeth Ashe

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July 6, 2023

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whale skeleton — Refugio De Potosí is an incredible gem, located less than an hour from the beach towns of Ixtapa-Zihuatanejo. (All photos by Elisabeth Ashe)

Whenever I get the chance to travel, I enjoy searching out museums, sanctuaries or parks and special hidden gems. Until recently, however, I’d neglected to visit the extraordinary Refugio de Potosí, an ecological sanctuary less than an hour from the beach towns of Ixtapa-Zihuatanejo, where I live.

Established in 2008 by Pablo Mendizabal and Laurel Patrick to promote the conservation of and education about local native species, El Refugio de Potosí is a nonprofit 7-hectare ecological park located in a tropical dry forest in the town of Barra de Potosí, on the Guerrero coast.

(Elisabeth Ashe) — The sanctuary’s mission is to educate the public about native and endangered species in Guerrero.

When I met up with Patrick, she was with several of her volunteers near one of the educational pavilions, where she was discussing the scientific experiments they’d be presenting to a school group later that week. Her volunteers are university students studying biology, ecology and environmental education and working toward their practicums at the reserve.

Charming garden paths meander in and out of an array of botanical displays here, which include an iguana habitat, macaw roosts, a wildlife pond and an 18-meter high observation tower from which you can watch native birds over the vast landscape.

Patrick and I began our tour with the newly built ConCeniencia education center, which houses the skull of an American crocodile and the encasement of eggs from local birds. Next to the display is a wall chart to help you match which egg belonged to which species.

Outside, we took a path past the wildlife pond to the hummingbird station to sit and watch as a constant stream of the birds nourished themselves at the numerous feeding stations. There’s even a hummingbird chair.

The Hummingbird chair (Elisabeth Ashe) — The hummingbird chair offers a moment of zen for visitors amidst the heat of the Guerrero coast.

It was a moment of zen; if not for the blisteringly hot day, I could have sat there forever.

As we trailed down a pathway to education stations that served as teaching opportunities for guides giving tours, I asked Patrick whether local guides gave tours at El Refugio.

“Only some people are allowed to bring their tours here,” she replied. “We are looking for tour companies that understand the park and are willing to educate visitors on what we are achieving here. We are not interested in tour guides who spend most of their time on their phones or tourists only here to picnic.”

“People think we are a zoo,” she added. “We are not … although we do have some animals and birds that we have rescued.”

As we walked, I felt that Patrick was indeed the kind of guide she hoped to attract: she knew an amazing amount about every single insect, bird and creature in the area.

Although the goal of El Refugio de Potosí is always to return animals they rehabilitate to the wild, some inhabitants stay in the sanctuary forever because they can’t or don’t know how to feed themselves or survive independently. Two of these permanent residents included a Mexican hairy dwarf porcupine and a deer.

A little farther along, we entered the Guacamaya Aviary, where El Refugio keeps the military macaws. It’s large enough for the birds to fly freely. Patrick told me that she hopes to train the birds to leave their enclosure during the day and return each evening for safety’s sake.

And finally she took me to the exhibit I was anxious to see, touted as one of the world’s largest assembled sperm whale skeleton. The story of how it came to be at the refuge is detailed in a thrilling narrative on their website.

Even after the whale skeleton, there was still an endless array of flora and fauna to see — horned owls, iguanas and much more. Numerous signs along the paths explained everything I was seeing.

Given the heat of the day, I opted out of the 18-meter climb to the tower. I promised myself that next time I’m at El Refugio — and there definitely will be a next time — I’d be better prepared with a hat, sunscreen and an earlier start to the day.

To find out more and to book a tour, contact El Refugio de Potosí by phone at 755-557-2840 or via email at [email protected]. They are located in the Playa Blanca neighborhood of Zihuatanejo on Lot 7.

The writer divides her time between Canada and Zihuatanejo.

Chapultepec Zoo celebrates 100 years

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MND Staff

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July 6, 2023

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panda at Chapultepec Zoo in mexico city — The zoo, located in the sprawling Chapultepec Park in central Mexico City, has everything from axolotls, to snakes and even giant pandas! (Chapultepec Zoo)

Mexico’s oldest zoo, the Chapultepec Zoo in Mexico City, has turned 100 years old.

Founded by Alfonso Luis Herrera, the “father of biology in Mexico,” the Chapultepec Zoo began construction on July 6, 1923, and opened in October 1924. The zoo is named in Herrera’s honor: its full name in Spanish is Zoológico de Chapultepec Alfonso Herrera.

Boasting a collection of 1,236 animals, the Chapultepec Zoo is the nation’s most visited. (Chapultepec Zoo)

To mark its 100-year anniversary, the zoo held a parade Thursday morning with live music and performers wearing costumes of the zoo’s animals.

In its beginnings, the Chapultepec Zoo was like any other: a place to display captive animals for people to view. It was the only zoo in Mexico City where people could find animals from all over the world, said head of the city’s Zoos and Wildlife Conservation Directorate Fernando Gual Sill in an interview with the newspaper El Universal.

Today, the Chapultepec Zoo is a conservation center, a scientific research center and a recreational space that educates the public about animal protection.

There are a range of biomes, many of which reflect the diverse nature of Mexico. (Chapultepec Zoo)

“Nowadays, zoos around the world, including those in Mexico City, are consolidating themselves into centers for wildlife conservation,” Gual said.

The zoo displays and cares for different species, including lions, jaguars, giraffes, kangaroos and zebras. It also cares for endangered species like the giant panda and for endemic animals like the Xochimilco axolotl or the volcano rabbit.

It also develops breeding, conservation and research programs on priority species such as the Mexican wolf and the California condor.

Part of these conservation efforts include one of Latin America’s first “frozen zoos,” a bank of genetic material with 1,400 samples of some 29 species of animals that are stored in frozen liquid nitrogen tanks. In the coming decades, these samples will be used in reproduction programs.

Chapultepec Zoo was the first place in the country where Mexicans could see animals from across the world. (Chapultepec Zoo)

Among the DNA samples kept in the frozen zoo are those from giant pandas, Mexican wolves, jaguars and bighorn sheep.

Gual told the magazine Wired that modern-day zoos have helped rescue some species from extinction, including the Mexican wolf. In 2014, the Chapultepec Zoo reported the first Mexican wolf pups born following artificial insemination. The procedure was done using genetic material from the bank.

With reports from El Universal, Wired and CDMX Secreta

CFE applies ‘summer rate’ electricity discounts in some states

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MND Staff

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July 6, 2023

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air-conditioner in mexico — The discount will likely be a welcome financial respite for residents of northern states this year, where 40 C–45 C weather during a heatwave had air-conditioners running nonstop. (Carlos Lindner/Unsplash)

If you’re worried that higher-than-normal use of your airconditioner during the recent heat wave will result in a higher electricity bill, don’t be — every summer, the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) subsidizes electricity in 20 states where the average temperatures surpass 30 degrees Celsius (86 F).

Known as the “summer rate,” the CFE allows residents of the hottest states in the country to access a lower electricity rate during the summer months.

A woman dances in a fountain during a heatwave — Mexico’s recent heatwave had the country trying its hardest to cool down. Even in traditionally cooler states, such as Mexico City, the heat was punishing. But the federal entity doesn’t qualify for the discount. (Graciela López/Cuartoscuro)

The CFE defines the summer period as May to October and the rate can apply for the entirety of the summer, depending on weather conditions — consult directly with CFE to find out which months are covered by the subsidy where you live.

This rate is only applicable to households.

To apply for the subsidy, the electricity connection must be individual in each home. The CFE applies the discount directly, so there’s no need to request it.

Residents of Nuevo León, Sonora, Coahuila, Baja California, Chihuahua, Tamaulipas, Sinaloa, Nayarit, Colima, San Luis Potosí, Oaxaca, Morelos, Guerrero, Veracruz, Chiapas, Tabasco, Campeche y Yucatán are all eligible for the special rate.

The CFE’s summer rate will come as a relief to many after this year’s electricity price increase of 7.1%. Since January, users with a domestic rate pay 0.945 pesos (US $0.05) for the first 75 kilowatt hours (KWh) of consumption, up from 0.882 pesos last year.

The increase in price came after the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) lifted subsidized prices established in 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The domestic rate will increase to $1.011 pesos at the end of 2023, according to the CFE.

With reports from El Informador and López Dóriga.

IMSS reports highest average salary increase in 21 years

By

Cat Rainsford

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July 6, 2023

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F0YP-YHWcAADyq6 — Workers enrolled with IMSS saw a 5.8% real-terms payrise in June, one of the largest on record. (Twitter)

The Mexican Institute of Social Security (IMSS) reported the highest salary increase in 21 years in June, although job creation during the month was sluggish.

Employees registered with IMSS earned an average salary of 534.1 pesos (US $30.89) per day in June, equivalent to a monthly salary of 16,245 pesos (US $939.26). This represented an 11.2% increase from last year, or 5.8% in real terms.

Changes to the IMSS law mean new responsibilities for some employers. — Pay has once again increased, says IMSS, and is now at an average of 534.1 pesos per day, or US $30.89. (IMSS)

“Considering an annual inflation of 5.18% in the period (according to data from the first half of June), the real increase in the average base salary was 5.78%, the highest real-term growth since February 2002,” reported an analysis by the Mexican financial firm Banco Base.

Wage increases have been a trend throughout President López Obrador’s administration, in which nominal annual increases of 6% or more have been seen every month since January 2019.

Carlos Ramírez, a consultant for Integralia, explained to El Financiero newspaper that this wage growth is due to a combination of rising minimum wages, high inflation and a tight labor market.

“Companies are having to pay more to retain or attract people,” he said.

AMLO at morning press conference — Wage growth has been a consistent theme of President López Obrador’s government. He has said he would like to see the minimum wage reach 260 pesos by the end of his term in 2024. (Gob. de México)

President López Obrador has made raising the minimum wage a priority of his administration. It was just 88 pesos per day when he took office in 2018 and is now up to 207.44 pesos (US $11.99) in most of the country.

AMLO has said he wants it to reach 260 pesos (US $15.03) by the time he leaves office in 2024, despite some economists’ fears that the increases may be fueling inflation.

Although the wage increases reported by the IMSS are encouraging, job creation last month was below average. The IMSS reported that 24,398 new positions were created in June, well below the 42,618 created the previous month, and below the 10-year June average of 29,000. Over the first six months of the year, however, 514,411 jobs were created – the second highest figure on record.

“Traditionally the month of June has weak job creation,” Ramírez told El Financiero. “I do not see anything to worry about; traditionally there is some volatility.”

Mónica Flores, president of ManpowerGroup LATAM, agreed that job creation tends to be slow in the second quarter of the year. Manpower forecasts that Mexico will create between 250,000 and 300,000 jobs between July and September.

Economic sectors with the largest job growth are currently the construction, transport and communications, and commerce sectors. ManpowerGroup LATAM also predicts strong growth over the next quarter in health and life sciences, transport, logistics and automotive and the manufacturing sector.

With reports from Milenio and El Financiero

2 men arrested for CDMX Metro shooting death Wednesday

By

MND Staff

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July 6, 2023

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Police guarding crime scene near Bellas Artes Metro station in Mexico City — Police guarding the perimeter near the Bellas Artes station where the slaying occurred. (Rogelio Morales Ponce/Cuartoscuro)

Two people have been arrested in connection with a fatal shooting in a downtown station of the Mexico City Metro, President López Obrador said Thursday.

A man was shot and killed Wednesday night as he descended the stairs of the Bellas Artes station, the Mexico City Security Ministry (SSC) said.

Bellas Artes Metro station in Mexico City — The Bellas Artes station, located in the capital’s historic center, moves an average of 50,000 Metro riders per day.

The SSC said that two men had been following the victim before he entered the subway station. The victim, estimated by authorities to be around 45 years of age, was reportedly shot in the chest, leg and arm.

López Obrador told reporters at his Thursday morning press conference that the motive of the attack was robbery.

“The culprits were detained yesterday, and the motive is now known. It was robbery, 15,000 pesos [US $870],” he said.

López Obrador said that the case was spoken about at his early morning security meeting, and described the incident as “regrettable.”

Policeman in Mexico City — Another homicide occurred in the Historic Center the same day, near the Pino Suárez Metro station. A shooting there left one man dead and another wounded. (Rogelio Morales Ponce/Cuartoscuro)

National Guard personnel were deployed to provide security in Mexico City Metro stations in January after a series of unusual events sparked alarm among authorities. The vast majority of the more than 6,000 guardsmen and guardswomen deployed have since been withdrawn.

The SSC reported a second homicide in Mexico City’s historic center on Wednesday night. Two men were arrested in connection with a shooting that left one man dead and another wounded, the ministry said. That crime occurred on the street in the vicinity of the Pino Suárez Metro station.

There were 365 homicides in Mexico City in the first five months of 2023, according to federal government data. Among Mexico’s 32 federal entities, the capital was the 15th most violent in the five-month period, a ranking based on its total number of murders.

With reports from El Universal, El Financiero and Infobae

Mexico’s peso weakens; positive US payroll data cited as factor

By

MND Staff

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July 6, 2023

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The Mexican peso weakened on Thursday morning after hitting its best level against the U.S. dollar in almost eight years on Wednesday.

One U.S. dollar was worth 17.30 pesos at 12 p.m. Mexico City time, according to Bloomberg.

People in an office working — The report on U.S. salaries, issued by the ADP Research Institute, showed that June’s figures were the best since February 2022. The peso weakened only a few hours later. (Christina Wocintechchat/Unsplash)

The USD-MXN exchange rate dipped to a low of 16.98 on Wednesday, but the greenback subsequently strengthened slightly to close at 17.01 pesos.

Data published Thursday that showed that private payrolls in the United States increased 497,000 in June was cited as a factor that strengthened the dollar and thus weakened the peso this morning. The positive jobs data, published by ADP Research Institute, was the best result since February 2022.

“The peso depreciates today due to the strength of the dollar,” Gabriela Siller, director of economic analysis at Banco Base, wrote on Twitter.

“The employment data from ADP was very good and creates speculation about more interest rate increases in the United States,” she said.

Gabriela Siller of Banco Base said the positive employment data from ADP has created speculation about more interest rate increases by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

CI Banco analysts said that the peso was facing pressure from the “hawkish tone” of the Fed’s minutes from its June monetary policy meeting, which were released Wednesday, as well as the ADP job data.

The United States Federal Reserve will make its next interest rate decision on July 26. The federal funds rate in the U.S. is currently set at a range of 5% to 5.25%.

Analysts cite the Bank of Mexico’s high benchmark interest rate – currently 11.25% – and the significant difference between that rate and that of the Fed as one factor in the current strength of the peso.

Mexico’s currency has appreciated significantly this year after starting 2023 at about 19.5 to the U.S. dollar.

With reports from Radio Fórmula, El Financiero and Bloomberg

Oaxaca bus crash leaves 29 dead

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MND Staff

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July 6, 2023

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Rescue crew stands in front of totaled bus, bodies covered in sheets are visible. — A recovery crew stands in front of the wreckage of a bus that crashed into a ravine in Oaxaca in the early hours of July 5. (Cuartoscuro.com)

A bus crash on Wednesday in the mountainous Mixteca region of Oaxaca left a death toll of 29 people, state authorities said.

A passenger bus veered off the road and plummeted into a 25-meter-deep ravine in the municipality of Magdalena Peñasco, located in the northwest of the southern state.

Wrecked bus. — Survivors, many seriously injured, were transported to a nearby hospital. (Cuartoscuro.com)

A 1 1/2-year-old infant was among those who lost their lives.

Oaxaca Interior Minister Jesús Romero López initially reported a death toll of 27, but his office subsequently said that the figure had risen to 29 after two people died in hospital from their injuries.

Close to 20 people were also injured in the accident, which occurred shortly after 6 a.m. Wednesday. Emergency services personnel took many of the injured to a public hospital in Tlaxiaco, a town about 20 kilometers from Magdalena Peñasco.

The bus departed from Mexico City and had planned to stop in various villages in the largely indigenous Mixteca region. Romero said in a television interview that it appeared that “a lack of skill and tiredness” caused the accident.

Lamentamos profundamente el accidente ocurrido en Magdalena Peñasco. Ya se encuentra personal de nuestro gobierno trabajando en las acciones de rescate y brindando todo el apoyo a las personas heridas. Enviamos un abrazo y nuestro pésame a las familias de las personas fallecidas,…

— Salomón Jara Cruz (@salomonj) July 5, 2023

In a Twitter post, Oaxaca Governor Salomón Jara Cruz sent his condolences to the families of the deceased and pledged the state government’s full support in the wake of their “terrible loss.”

With reports from El Financiero, El País and AP

How can we predict what will happen next with the Mexican peso?

By

Travis Bembenek

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July 6, 2023

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stock-chart — Currency exchange rates are difficult to predict, but there are some important indicators to keep an eye on. (Depositphotos)

On Wednesday, we saw the Mexican Peso punch below 17 for the first time in eight years, and early on Thursday, a sudden weakening of 2%.

It is said that trying to predict future currency exchange rates is a fool’s game, and in my 25 years of international business experience, I have witnessed countless fools attempt it. Predicting forward foreign exchange (FX) rates is never straightforward.

The most logical financial rationale for a given currency’s trajectory can turn out to be completely wrong based on global political or macroeconomic developments that have little to do specifically with that country. However, there are predictable factors that go into currency movements that can be analyzed and followed.

In this brief summary, I will explain why the Mexican peso has strengthened against the dollar, and more importantly, what to watch to see where it is going next. Note this is not a prediction as to the peso’s value in the short term, and changes can happen suddenly depending on new economic or political developments.

To begin with, there are underlying factors supporting a generally strong Mexican peso such as relatively low debt ratios, strong inflows of dollars from remittances, tourism and foreign direct investment, stable to decreasing inflation, and the nearshoring trend. All of these factors are indeed relevant in understanding the strength of the Mexican peso today.

But does that explain why we are seeing such quick and significant strengthening? Not entirely. Another very important equation to look at is the following: What are the current interest rates in Mexico? What is the current (and trending) inflation rate? What is the spread (the difference) between those two rates? And how does that spread compare to the spread in the United States? Let me illustrate with current figures:

Mexico’s current interest rate is 11.25%.
Mexico’s current inflation rate is around 5% and trending down.
The spread between those two rates is over 5%.
The current Federal Reserve interest rate in the U.S. is around 5%.
The current inflation rate in the U.S. is around 5% and trending down.

Assuming the risk of investing in both countries is the same (which it is not), you could make over 5% above interest on your money in Mexico right now. You could make essentially 0% above interest on your money in the United States right now. Historically, the argument for the difference is that a “risk premium” is needed to invest in countries like Mexico. While true, the underlying factors supporting the Mexican economy, as mentioned above, are very strong right now. In addition, the current spread between interest rates and inflation rate in Mexico is so high, it is making the peso very attractive at the moment.

To understand where things could go from here, keep an eye on interest rates, inflation rates, and the spread between the two rates in both countries. Early on Thursday, the sharp weakening in the Mexican peso was caused in large part by the better than expected numbers in U.S. private sector job creation. This caused investors to expect additional interest rate increases in the U.S., despite an inflation rate that is trending down. This would increase the spread in the U.S. and make it generally more attractive to invest in US dollars versus the Mexican peso.

I would be surprised if this analysis has not given you a headache by this point! Despite all of the noise around the recent currency movements, we can try to see where they are going next by being careful observers of the economic indicators I outline above. Of course, global macroeconomic and political news is just as important to follow to understand the whole picture.